Home/ Economy / Electric vehicles to displace over 5 million bpd of oil demand by 2030: IEA report

Electric vehicles (EVs) are set to displace over 5 million barrels of oil demand per day based on current policy settings, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA, in its recent report titled ‘Global EV Outlook 2023’, claims that at the global level, oil displacement by EVs reaches 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025 and 5 mbpd by 2030 under stated policies. Due to this, the global demand for oil-based road transport fuels will peak by 2025.

The growing EV stock will reduce oil use, which today accounts for over 90 per cent of total final consumption in the transport sector. Globally, the projected EV fleet in 2030 displaces more than 5 mbpd of diesel and gasoline, said IEA.

Road transport account for over 40 per cent of global oil demand, but electric cars are driving a major transformation of the auto industry, said the Paris-based agency gathering of the 31 mostly industrialised countries and much of the European Union (EU).

Also Read: Global gas supply to remain tight in 2023 amid lower Russian pipeline deliveries to Europe

In 2022, electric SUVs resulted in the displacement of over 150 000 bpd of oil consumption and avoided the associated tailpipe emissions that would have been generated through burning the fuel in combustion engines. 

Although electric SUVs represented roughly 35 per cent of all electric passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs) in 2022, their share of oil displacement was even higher (about 40 per cent), as SUVs tend to be driven more than smaller cars. Smaller vehicles generally require less energy to operate and less materials to build.


How can oil displacement through the use of EVs be estimated?

The oil displacement through the use of EVs can be estimated by assuming that the distance (total kilometres) travelled by EVs by segment each year would have otherwise been travelled by ICE (internal combustion engines) vehicles or hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) (based on the stock shares of each). In the case of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, only the distance covered by electricity gets included. 

The stock average fuel consumption of petrol and diesel vehicles determines the total liquid fuel displacement, where the biofuel portion is taken out of the estimate based on regional blending rates. It can be estimated that in 2022, the stock of EVs displaced 700 000 bpd. This method of estimation assumes that EVs replace ICE or hybrid vehicles of the same segment, as opposed to some other means of transport, i.e. an electric car replaces an ICE car. 

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Updated: 09 May 2023, 11:21 PM IST
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