Mint’s emerging markets tracker: Export slump, muted markets keep India at third spot in October
Muted stock market gains and a deep export slump weighed heavily on India’s score in Mint's Emerging Market Tracker, countering its robust growth momentum. The country held on to the third position for the second consecutive month.
India held on to the third position in Mint’s Emerging Market Tracker for October even as a sharp contraction in exports, continued depreciation of the rupee, and muted market performance dragged its score down. Indonesia, meanwhile, surged to the top of the rankings — from seventh place last month — on the back of strong export momentum and improving manufacturing activity.
India's export growth contracted by 11.8% year-on-year—the sharpest decline among all emerging markets covered—while stock market capitalization rose just 0.2% month-on-month, making it one of the weakest performers on this metric. The rupee also slipped by 0.1%, compared to a depreciation of 0.8% last month.
Indonesia secured a composite score of 69, the highest among the nine emerging markets tracked. Its strong showing was driven by an 11.9% jump in exports, expansion in manufacturing activity and solid stock market gains, supported by well-contained inflation.
China was in second place with a score of 65, driven by robust import cover of 15.8 months and steady GDP growth of 4.8% in the September quarter. However, export growth contracted 1.1%, and currency showed no significant change compared to last month.
Launched in September 2019, Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker provides a summary of economic activity across nine large emerging markets based on seven high-frequency indicators: real GDP growth, manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange rate movement and stock market.
The rankings are provisional and the scores will be updated once all the latest data is available.
Methodology note: The tracker is a monthly summary of economic activity across nine large emerging markets based on seven high-frequency indicators. Latest available data is used. On each indicator, the best-performing economy gets a score of 100, the worst one gets zero, and the others get linearly-interpolated relative scores. A country's composite index score is the simple average of its seven indicator scores.
Earlier, the tracker had a 10th country, Russia, but it has been dropped temporarily as some data has not been reliably available since the Ukraine war began.
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