Fitch Ratings today retained India's sovereign credit rating at ‘BBB-’ for the 20th straight year stating that the economy remains strong with robust growth outlook and solid external finance fundamentals, according to a PTI report.
However, the agency also flagged risks on fiscal spending amid youth protests over jobs in India and headwinds from rising oil prices due to the war in West Asia.
“Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at BBB- with a stable outlook,” Fitch said in its rating action. India's rating has remained unchanged at 'BBB-', the lowest investment grade, since 2006.
Notably, Moody's has retained its 'Baa3' rating since June 2020, S&P Global Ratings upgraded India by a notch to 'BBB' last year, Reuters reported.
Sovereign credit rating at ‘BBB-’: What does this mean?
- Fitch has estimated GDP growth in FY27 at 6.4%, led by public capex, a private investment pick-up and favourable demographics, the PTI report added. It also however slower than the average 7.4% recorded over the past three years.
According to the report, the ratings agency said the Bharatiya Janata Party's gains in state elections would support implementation of policy priorities at the Centre.
India's economy grew at 7.8% year-on-year (YoY) in the January-March quarter while retail inflation in June stood at 4.38%, marginally above the central bank's 4% medium-term target, the Reuters report added.
- The PTI report further said that Fitch cautioned that the recent youth protests could put pressure on the Centre to hike spending on education-related measures, generate jobs and improve skill development initiatives. “Recent protests, stemming from leaked medical exams, may point to rising concerns among youth over employment opportunities, risking fiscal spending pressures over time,” it stated.
Last month, students had staged a massive protest in the capital over paper leak in medical entrance exam NEET and demanded transparency in competitive exams. The protests and the subsequent police action on students have been raised by the Opposition in Parliament, disrupting its proceedings in the ongoing monsoon session.
- Fitch said India's economy has been resilient to shocks in recent years, a trend it expects to continue. “There are residual risks from uncertainty related to the US-Iran conflict, given India's position as large net energy importer position, but we do not expect a durable risk to growth prospects,” Fitch said.
India imports 87% of its crude requirement, of which 46% transits through or near the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked on account of the war between the United States and Iran, ongoing since 28 February.
- Fitch further said India's rating reflects its robust growth outlook and solid external finance fundamentals.
A strengthening record of delivering macroeconomic stability and improving policy credibility should underpin continued robust growth and enhance economic resilience, despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds from the energy shock.
- High growth should also support a sustained improvement in structural credit metrics and increase the likelihood that government debt will trend down, Fitch said.
In the FY27 Budget, the government estimated the debt-to-GDP ratio at 55.6% of GDP, lower than 56.1% of GDP in FY26. The government has set a target to bring down its debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% by March 2031.
- It said India's external finances remain solid, with a low current account deficit (CAD), net external creditor position and still high forex reserves. Fitch forecast a slight widening of CAD to 1.4% of GDP in FY27 from 0.6% in FY26, from the energy shock.
Fitch forecast reserves of $733 billion (7.4 months of external payments) by FY27 end. Capital outflows picked up in the June quarter of FY27, amid already subdued FDI and portfolio flows, but have reversed following the recent RBI and government measures.
(With inputs from Agencies)
