Foodgrain production to improve in 2025-26 but no bumper crop

India’s foodgrain output is expected to improve this fiscal year due to an increase in sowing area aided by above-normal monsoon showers, but it will not be a bumper crop given crop damage in some states due to rains.

Foodgrain production for 2025-26 is estimated to be 362.50 million tonnes (mt), marking a 2.4% increase from the level seen a year ago, said Union agriculture and farmers’ welfare minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, said at a conference on Tuesday.

According to the third advance estimates released by the agriculture ministry in May, the country achieved a record foodgrain production of 353.96 mt in 2024-25, which is 21.66 mt higher than the production of 332.30 mt in 2023-24, registering an increase of around 6.5%.

The country achieved record harvests in key crops like rice, wheat, maize, groundnut, and soybean. This output was 12.41 mt higher than the target of 341.55 mt.

As far as 2025-26 is concerned, banking on the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of an 'above normal' monsoon at 106% of the long period average, the sowing of kharif crops (typically from June to October)—paddy, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton—has been completed in over 111 million hectares compared to the “normal sown area” of 109.6 million hectares in the kharif season. Overall area under these crops so far has been up 1.36% on year, with higher areas covered under paddy, pulses, coarse cereals and sugarcane.

Rain damage

However, crops in states such as Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have been damaged due to heavy rains. On being asked about the impact of rains on kharif crops, a senior agricultural official said that, as anticipated, a bumper kharif crop production would not happen, but since there has been a surge in area in the kharif season, the production would be more or less the same as the previous season. Discussing the flood situation, Chouhan said that the government is making every possible effort to assist those affected.

In Punjab and Haryana, mostly paddy and cotton were damaged, in Rajasthan, moong, moth, guar, and bajra were damaged due to heavy rains. While in Madhya Pradesh, heavy rains took a toll on the soybean crop, in Maharashtra, soybean, maize, cotton, urad, tur, and moong were the major crops which were damaged.

The state governments are doing field surveys, including using satellite imagery, to assess the loss and compensate the farmers.

On the lines of the kharif season, the agriculture department is anticipating better sowing during the rabi season, with crops sown in October-December and harvested in March-April. The major crops include wheat, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals and paddy. The total rabi crop sowing was over 66.1 million hectares in 2024-25.

Farm output has been witnessing healthy growth in recent years. Output from agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing grew at an average of 4.4% in the five years up to FY25, with policymakers calling above 4% output growth the new normal.

Experts feel that a rise in productivity will ease inflation, but at the same time, it is a cause of concern. "On one hand, it will ease food inflation, which is already at lower levels, and on the other, it will impact farmers’ income and lower demand for consumer goods in rural India. The best way to balance is government purchases at MSP (Minimum Support Price) to stabilise the food prices in the market," said Professor Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and ex-member of UP Planning Commission.

Inflation impact

India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 2.07% in August, from 1.61% in July, according to the data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) on 12 September. Food inflation in rural areas increased slightly, moving to -0.70% in August, from -1.74% in July. Similarly, it increased for urban areas to -0.58% in August, from -1.90% in July.

The steepest rise among food items came from oils and fats, which surged 21.24% in August compared with 19.24% in July. Inflation for the egg, meat, and fish group rose to 1.63% from -0.35%.

Chouhan emphasized that while India’s rice and wheat production is globally competitive, pulses and oilseeds require more attention. “A road map will be developed to enhance yields, with special emphasis on per-hectare productivity,” he said, adding that crop-wise reviews are underway, with large-scale meetings already held for cotton and soybean.