The week in charts: GDP growth estimate, trade deficit concerns, services PMI
In this weekly Plain Facts compilation, we present to you data-based insights, with easy-to-read charts, to help you delve deeper into the stories reported by Mint in the week gone by.
From India’s economic activity estimated to remain strong in 2025-26, to India's oil companies expected to benefit from the US invasion of Venezuela, services activity losing momentum in December, Niti Aayog expressing worry over India’s high trade deficit with several countries despite trade deals, and rising prices of copper—here’s this week’s news in numbers.
Growth dynamics
The government pegged GDP growth at 7.4% in 2025-26 despite the ongoing uncertainty related to high US tariffs. The first advance estimate released on Wednesday put GDP growth marginally higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) projection of 7.3%.
The figure implies a 6.8% increase in the second half of the year, following an 8% increase in the first half, suggesting that global uncertainty may still be a factor. This year, the government has announced massive cuts in income tax and goods and services tax (GST) to boost consumption.
However, private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), a proxy for household consumption, is expected to slow down to 7.0% from 7.2% last year, suggesting that the tax cuts have not fully stimulated demand in the economy.
Potential gain?
Indian oil stocks jumped on Monday on the news of the US military operation in Venezuela. The optimism was driven by the possible gains for Indian companies from the restructuring of the oil industry in Venezuela after the US takeover.
Stock prices of Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd (ONGC) and other oil-related stocks witnessed a 0.3-2% jump in opening prices on Monday. Investors are betting on the possible unblocking of long-pending dividends, frozen by sanctions, to companies like ONGC.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is also expected to gain from lower crude oil prices. Brent crude oil price has slipped to below $60 per barrel amid the ongoing intervention.
Low note
India’s services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to an 11-month low of 58.0 in December from 59.8 in November mainly due to slow expansion in new businesses.
This follows a similar pattern that was seen for manufacturing activity during the month, with its PMI falling to a two-year low of 55.0 in December from 56.6 in November.
While December has proved to be a slow month for both manufacturing and services activity, even though it is considered an economically robust period, it is worth noting that activity has continued to expand at a rapid rate. A figure above 50 indicates expansion and that below 50 indicates contraction.
Numbers talk
30%: The equity stake Universal Studios is set to buy in Excel Entertainment, the production house owned by Farhan Akhtar and Ritesh Sidhwani. With this deal, Excel Entertainment's value is expected to cross ₹2,400 crore.
28.9 million: The number of voters removed from the Uttar Pradesh voter list following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise by the Election Commission of India. This accounts for 18.7% of the total voters.
₹10,000 crore: The outlay the Centre is considering for a national programme to build girls’ hostels in over 800 districts, Mint reported. The proposal envisages at least one dedicated hostel for girl students in each of these districts over the next five years.
94 per dollar: The level of rupee UBS Investment Bank expects in FY27 as structural headwinds, such as persistent capital outflows, are expected to outweigh temporary relief from easing trade tensions.
5.1: The magnitude of the earthquake which hit central Assam early morning on Monday. The epicentre of the tremor, which was near Assam’s Morigaon district, also affected Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan.
Trade watch
At a time when India is signing trade deals with many nations, from the UK to Oman, the government’s think-tank Niti Aayog has expressed concerns over high trade deficits with partner countries in free trade agreements (FTA). In the latest edition of quarterly trade watch, Niti Aayog noted that imports from these countries were growing faster than exports to them.
It said that there was a need for deeper value-chain integration and competitiveness within India’s existing FTAs. India has trade deals with a number of countries and blocs, but it also runs a high and rising deficit with them, especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the UAE.
Copper’s climb
Copper prices have entered 2026 on a high, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark hitting an all-time high of $13,264 per tonne on 6 January, before retreating below the $13,000-mark next day.
This is being driven by structural shifts in demand as well as expectations of a supply shortage. Demand is being generated by the greater use of electric vehicles, renewable energy and artificial intelligence for which copper is a crucial raw material.
Supply shortage is being caused by reduced capacity at Grasberg Block Cave, the world’s second-largest copper mine, due to mudflow and labour shortages in Mantoverde Mine in Chile. Trade uncertainty has also led to stockpiling by the West, leading to further shortage.
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