Home-cooked meal costs fall in September as vegetable and pulse prices drop, says Crisil report

NEW DELHI: The cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian meals, or thalis, declined year-on-year in September, offering some relief to households.

According to the Crisil Roti Rice Rate (RRR), the average cost of a home-cooked vegetarian thali fell 10%, while that of a non-vegetarian thali declined 6%, driven largely by lower prices of vegetables and pulses. However, high prices of vegetable oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prevented a sharper correction.

The RRR measures the average cost of preparing a thali based on prevailing input prices across north, south, east, and west India. It tracks monthly movements in cereals, pulses, broilers, vegetables, spices, edible oil, and cooking gas to reflect their impact on household expenditure.

"In September, the costs of vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis declined 10% and 6% on-year, respectively, driven by lower prices of vegetables and pulses. However, elevated prices of vegetable oil and liquefied petroleum gas prevented a steeper correction," said Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence.

The report highlighted that the decline in vegetarian thali costs was led by a sharp drop in prices of vegetables such as potatoes, tomatoes, and onions, as well as pulses.

Potato prices fell 31% due to stock dumping by cold storage units, while tomato prices declined 8% on-year owing to higher supplies. Onion prices dropped 46% on-year, supported by increased rabi output and reduced imports from Bangladesh, which accounts for 40% of India’s onion exports. Pulses prices fell 16% as higher imports of Bengal gram, yellow pea, and black gram put pressure on costs; these imports are allowed until March 2026.

The decline in the cost of non-vegetarian thalis was slower due to an approximately 1% year-on-year fall in broiler prices, which constitute about half the cost. Lower vegetable and pulse prices partially offset this.

However, vegetable oil prices surged 21% year-on-year in September, fuelled by higher demand at the start of the festival season. LPG cylinder prices also rose 6% on-year, limiting the overall decline in thali costs.

Sequentially, the vegetarian thali cost fell 3% in September, while the non-vegetarian thali cost rose by a similar margin. Tomato prices fell 21% month-on-month to ₹42 per kg from ₹53 per kg, reflecting an 8% increase in arrivals from western and southern markets. Potato and onion prices also eased, albeit modestly, by 2% and 3%, respectively. The rise in non-vegetarian thali costs was primarily due to an estimated 10% increase in broiler prices amid supply constraints and low production.

Looking ahead, Sharma noted that onion prices could rise moderately in the medium term. Excess rainfall in August and September in key producing states such as Karnataka and Maharashtra has delayed kharif transplantation and raised yield concerns. Heavy rainfall affecting stored onions or standing kharif crops in October could add further upward pressure.

Tomato prices are also expected to firm up during the festive season, partly due to the impact of excessive rainfall on yields in major producing states.