From India's fiscal deficit crossing 9% of the the FY27 budgeted target within the first two months, to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) posting strong growth on the back of higher electricity generation, June 2026 recording the fifth-lowest monthly rainfall, rising concerns over artificial intelligence-enabled cyber threats, and businesses continuing to grapple with the compliance and administrative burden of the goods and services tax (GST)—here is this week's news in numbers.
Early warning
India's gross fiscal deficit stood at ₹1.6 trillion, or 9.6% of the FY27 budget estimate, during April-May 2026, monthly fiscal data released on 30 June showed. This compares with just 0.9% of the FY26 provisional fiscal deficit a year earlier.
The widening was driven by an 18% year-on-year increase in total expenditure and a contraction in both net tax receipts and non-tax revenues. Excise duty collections fell 20%, following duty cuts on petrol and diesel, while higher interest payments and subsidies pushed up revenue expenditure.
West Asia tensions have begun to ease, but their impact appears to reflect in the data, and could leave the government with limited resources for the rest of the year.
Lopsided growth
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 5.1% year-on-year in May 2026, against 4.9% in April 2026 and highest since December 2025, data released on Monday showed. This was largely driven by strong growth in electricity generation due to high temperatures and a low base, Icra noted.
'Electricity and gas supply' grew 9.9% year-on-year in May 2026, marking its third-highest growth rate since the shift to the 2022-23 base year. In contrast, manufacturing growth slowed to 5.5% despite a favourable base, with 15 of its 23 sub-sectors witnessing slower growth than a month earlier. The mining sector remained under pressure, contracting 1.6% in May—its fifth consecutive monthly decline—although the pace of contraction eased from 3.8% in April. This shows that the pickup in industrial growth was driven more by weather-related gains in electricity generation than a broad improvement across sectors.
Numbers talk
54.2: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index recorded in June 2026, the second-lowest reading in four years after March 2026, when it fell below 54 amid the West Asia war-driven crisis. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while one below 50 signals contraction.
Up to 2.5%: The share of its workforce Microsoft plans to cut in another round of layoffs, impacting largely sales and consulting jobs, as well as jobs at the Xbox gaming division, according to various media reports.
₹14,115 crore: Combined value of two major highway infrastructure projects approved by the government on Wednesday, including an 8-km, six-lane tunnel in Delhi and a highway project in Uttar Pradesh.
₹282 crore: The value at which Kotak Mahindra Bank is acquiring Deutsche Bank's retail and wealth management business in India, the private sector bank said in a press release on Tuesday.
₹327.4: Minimum daily wage set under the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025, from 1 July 2026, up 10% from the previous ₹298.8 per day under MGNREGS.
Monsoon trouble
India received just 99.5 mm of rainfall in June 2026, making it the fifth-driest June since official records began in 1901. Moreover, the June rainfall was the weakest in the last 12 years. Only four other years in the past 126 years have recorded lower June rainfall: 2009 (85.7 mm), 1905 (93.7 mm), 2014 (95.4 mm) and 1926 (98.7 mm).
The sharp deficit has also reinforced concerns over the impact of the developing El Niño conditions, which have historically been associated with weaker monsoons and delayed rainfall activity across India. Also, among the 10 wettest Junes on record, only two—2001 and 2013—were in the 21st century, highlighting how rare exceptionally wet starts to the monsoon have been in recent decades. The weak onset has raised concerns beyond June as well: the India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for July, suggesting that El Niño may continue to cast a shadow on this year's monsoon.
Cyber concerns
AI has emerged as the biggest cyber risk facing India's financial sector. According to the June 2026 Financial Stability Report released by the Reserve Bank of India, 95% of surveyed banks and large non-banking financial companies identified AI-enabled cyber threats as one of their top three risks over the next 12 months.
This was followed by risks arising from third-party and supply-chain dependencies, cited by 70% of respondents. Traditional cyber threats such as ransomware and malware attacks (28%), API and application vulnerabilities (23%), and phishing attacks (23%) ranked considerably lower. The findings highlight a shift in concerns within the financial sector, with AI-enabled threats emerging as a far bigger worry than traditional cyber risks.
GST pain continues
Nine years after the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), businesses continue to grapple more with compliance and administration than with the tax structure itself. According to Deloitte's 'GST@9: The next-gen GST — Reform, rationalise and simplify' report, 65% of surveyed C-suite and senior executives cited the tax administration's pro-revenue approach as the biggest challenge affecting ease of doing business.
This was followed by multiple GST proceedings initiated by both central and state authorities (62%) and aggressive audits coupled with lengthy proceedings (59%). The findings come shortly after the government's most significant GST reform since its rollout in 2017. In September 2025, the GST Council rationalised the tax structure by moving to two principal tax slabs—5% and 18%—with the aim of simplifying the indirect tax regime and boosting economic activity. But the survey suggests that businesses remain more concerned about the administration of GST than its rate structure.