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India’s merchandise exports forecast to reach $124.8 billion in Q4FY25: Exim Bank
- India’s export growth shows signs of resilience, with non-oil shipments leading the way. But geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainty could weigh on momentum.
New Delhi: India’s merchandise exports are projected to reach $124.8 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter (Q4FY25), marking a 3.64% year-on-year increase, according to estimates from the Export-Import Bank of India. Non-oil exports are expected to climb 11.34% to $109.3 billion during the period, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to rise 10.1% to $98.5 billion.
The positive momentum is likely to extend into the first quarter (April-June) of the next financial year, though trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fragmentation pose risks.
Read this | Indian steelmakers, already reeling under lower prices, brace for impact of Trump's 25% tariff
For the full fiscal year, total merchandise exports are estimated at $446.5 billion, reflecting a modest 2.2% rise from FY24. Non-oil exports are projected at $382 billion, with non-oil and non-gems and jewelry exports reaching $350 billion.
India’s exports have yet to reclaim their FY23 peak of $443.72 billion, after slipping to $433.09 billion in FY24. The latest forecasts signal a recovery, underpinned by strong manufacturing output, agricultural resilience, and improving global demand, despite persistent headwinds.
Meanwhile, India's merchandise trade deficit fell to a three-month low of $21.94 billion in December 2024, as higher exports offset import pressures. The shortfall had steadily widened in prior months, reaching $32.84 billion in November.
According to a Union Bank of India report, the deficit likely narrowed further to $20.88 billion in January 2025, driven by a slowdown in gold imports following the festival and wedding season.
The commerce ministry recently revised November's gold import figures downward by $5 billion, trimming the goods trade deficit for the month to $32.84 billion from an earlier estimate of $37.84 billion.
In December last year, merchandise exports stood at $38.01 billion, while imports reached $59.95 billion, compared with $38.39 billion in exports and $57.15 billion in imports a year earlier.
Cumulative exports for April-December 2024 rose 1.6% to $321.71 billion from $316.65 billion in the same period the previous year. Electronics, engineering goods, rice, garments, and handloom products led the export gains, while crude oil, petroleum products, electronic goods, and gold remained top imports.
India’s key export markets during the period included the US, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, the UK, and China. Weak demand in major economies, geopolitical tensions, and volatile commodity prices have weighed on trade, even as non-oil exports show resilience.
Also read | Bangladesh shifts global textiles export route from India to Maldives amid strained bilateral ties
Exim Bank releases quarterly export growth projections using its Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which tracks external and domestic factors shaping trade. The next forecast, covering April-June FY26, is due in May.
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Business NewsEconomyIndia’s merchandise exports forecast to reach $124.8 billion in Q4FY25: Exim Bank
First Published:14 Feb 2025, 01:09 PM IST
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