India tops again: Export rebound in November puts it ahead of EM peers
China, the strongest contender along with India on the emerging-market (EM) list, slipped to the fourth rank.
A sharp rise in exports in November, aided by a low base, helped pull India sharply ahead of other emerging market (EM) peers, as shown by the latest Mint's Emerging Market Tracker, even as the rupee and stock market performance remained weak. India, with a composite score of 71, was way ahead in the race. Malaysia and Brazil followed distantly with composite scores of 62 and 59, securing second and third ranks, respectively.
Malaysia rode on a strong performance of its currency (up 1.6% month-on-month) and export growth (up 15.8% year-on-year). Thailand gained from the best performance in manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), with a print of 58.8.
China, the strongest contender along with India on the list, slipped to the fourth rank from the second in October as its export growth (5.9%) paled compared to that of Malaysia, and only a 0.2% month-on-month rise in its currency and stock-market capitalization kept it behind both Malaysia and Thailand.
While India has consistently outshone other EMs in gross domestic product (GDP) growth and manufacturing activity, the movements in exports, rupee, and stock-market capitalization relative to its peers have proved crucial in determining its rank in 2025. Between April and November, India failed to secure the first rank only in August and September.
Launched in September 2019, Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker provides a summary of economic activity across nine large EMs based on seven high-frequency indicators: real GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange rate movement, and stock market.
Drivers and drains
Exports grew 19.4% year-on-year in November, making it the joint highest with the Philippines during the month. This was a sharp rebound from a decline of 11.4% in the previous month. What’s important to note here is that a large part of this rise has come on the back of a low base—exports were at a two-year low in November 2024.
Nevertheless, amid continuing high US tariffs of 50%, India exported goods worth $38.1 billion in November, the highest level seen since May, helped by a strong month-on-month export growth of 63.5% to Spain and 35.6% to China. This reflects India’s attempts to diversify its export destinations.
A strong 8.2% GDP growth in July-September, the highest among peers, and the second-best manufacturing PMI of 56.6 also helped pull India to the top. These factors more than offset the relatively poor performance of the currency and ultra-low inflation print. The Indian rupee depreciated 0.5% month-on-month against the dollar in November, making it the fourth-worst performance among the nine EMs. Inflation, which was just 0.7% in November, much below the medium-term aim of 4%, was also a drag.
The stock market shrugged off the weaknesses seen in the earlier months and witnessed a 1.2% month-on-month rise in capitalization, but this proved lacklustre compared to Brazil and Mexico. Both the rupee and the stock-market performance have suffered this year as foreign investors have been fleeing the country. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers in equities for eight months in 2025, with cumulative ₹1.58 trillion withdrawn until 26 December.
The road ahead
India’s fundamentals have remained strong despite external headwinds, helped by its domestic resilience. Though there are several risks that may challenge India’s top position in the coming months. To begin with, India’s currency has stayed weak in December as well, depreciating around 1% month-on-month.
The benchmark BSE Sensex has also declined roughly 0.8%. The continuing outflow of FPIs may also weaken India’s position in the coming months. Moreover, India’s GDP growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025-26 to 7.3% from 8.0% in the first half. Though this will not materially impact India’s ranking, as other EMs are expected to record growth in the range of 1.3-6.1%.
Exports, on the other hand, hold the wild card. The base effect would turn unfavourable in December. To sustain the same level of growth that was seen in November, India will have to export goods worth $45.1 billion, almost 18% higher than in November. December is usually a good month for exports, with levels being 9-24% higher compared to November in the past five years. However, considering the trade-related uncertainties, the figures will depend on India’s ability to sustain its diversification efforts towards China, Spain, and the United Arab Emirates, among others.
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