From India’s fiscal deficit getting off to a rocky start in April, to a revamped industrial output series pointing to possible GDP upgrades, manufacturing and services activity showing resilience, the West Asia war squeezing airline capacity, and a Mint survey showing how income shapes urban Indians’ wedding aspirations, here’s this week’s news in numbers.
Slippery slope?
India’s fiscal numbers for FY27 got off to a rough start in April. Tax and non-tax collections came in lower than a year ago, while both government and capital spending expanded—pushing the monthly deficit to nearly double that of April 2025. At ₹3.62 trillion, the April deficit accounted for 21.4% of the full-year budgeted target, up sharply from 11.9% in FY26.
While the figure is much higher than a year earlier, it is broadly in line with the 22.6% median for April between FY16 and FY25, according to Barclays economists. Keeping spending in check amid war-led pressures will be critical for the government to meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP in FY27.
Baseline recalibration
India's industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in April, marking the debut of a revamped series with 2022-23 as the new base year, replacing the 2011-12 series. The updated framework incorporates a revised item basket, recalibrated sectoral weights, and a broader factory reporting base, better capturing the current structure of India's industrial economy.
The new series suggests industrial activity, particularly manufacturing, expanded faster in FY24 and FY25 than previously estimated. That could pave the way for upward revisions to GDP data due later this week, according to economists at Icra Ltd. Average Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth for FY26 has been revised up to 4.3% from 4.1% under the old series.
Momentum sustained
India’s manufacturing and services sectors remained firmly in expansion mode in May. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged up to 55.0 from 54.7 in April, supported by resilient domestic demand despite elevated input costs. While the reading was a three-month high and above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, it remained below the stronger levels seen earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 59.8 in May, its highest reading in six months, driven by robust demand conditions, new client wins, and sustained improvements in new business intake. New orders placed with Indian service providers also expanded at their strongest pace in six months, reflecting broad-based momentum across the sector.
Numbers talk
12.5%: The tariff rate India is likely to face under new US proposals targeting imports from major trading partners over alleged forced-labour practices, with most countries facing at least 10%.
$2 billion: The value of military drones India is likely to order from domestic firms this year, in what would be its biggest such purchase, Reuters reported.
3.47x: The subscription rate achieved by the government's Offer for Sale in NHPC on Day 1, with investors responding strongly to the issue priced at ₹71 per share, an 8% discount to its previous close.
20.2%: The share of IndiGo's fleet owned or held under finance leases in Q4 FY26, up from 9.8% in Q2 FY25, as the airline hedges against rupee depreciation on dollar-denominated lease payments, showed a Mint analysis.
90,000: The number of new hires Reliance Industries may have cut in FY26 versus the prior year, as conglomerates pivot to AI upskilling and role redesign over workforce expansion.
Turbulence toll
India's domestic air passenger traffic declined 3.5% year-on-year in April, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, according to the latest data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The West Asia war has kept aviation turbine fuel prices elevated—a serious strain on airlines given that fuel accounts for 30-40% of operating costs, prompting them to raise fares.
The pressure is now reshaping capacity: Air India and IndiGo, which together command roughly 90% of the domestic market, have sharply cut scheduled flights for June and July, Reuters reported. To cushion the blow, the Centre on 3 June approved ₹10,000 crore for oil-marketing companies towards an ATF price stabilization fund.
Lavish aspirations
Urban Indians’ wedding aspirations and spending priorities vary widely across income groups. A Mint survey found that those earning above ₹1 lakh a month were more likely to favour lavish weddings, with 72% expressing support, compared with 66% among those earning less than ₹30,000 a month.
Their median expected wedding budget stood at ₹10 lakh, the highest across income groups, with nearly 32% comfortable spending over ₹20 lakh—significantly higher than the ₹2 lakh median among lower earners. This was the third part of a survey conducted in association with YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research, covering 10,022 adults across 207 towns and cities.