A downward revision in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) following the base-year revision and a sharp depreciation of the rupee have proved to be a setback for India's position in global ranking.
The country has slipped to the sixth rank in 2025 (FY26) and 2026 (FY27), falling behind the UK after claiming the fifth position for three straight years, showed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest data.
At current prices, India’s GDP is estimated to be $3.92 trillion in 2025 (FY26) and $4.15 trillion in 2026 (FY27). The UK’s GDP is expected to be $4 trillion in 2025 and $4.26 trillion in 2026, respectively. Japan will be far ahead with $4.43 trillion and $4.38 trillion, respectively.
However, according to current projections, this could prove to be a temporary setback as India is expected to jump to the fourth rank by 2027 (FY28), leaving both the UK and Japan behind. This is expected to be achieved only by a small margin of $113 billion with the UK and $17 billion with Japan. These projections may change if India’s GDP growth does not materialize as expected or the rupee keeps depreciating at a sharp rate.
The slippage follows the government's announcement that India had become the fourth-largest economy. To be sure, the IMF in its October 2025 update had a more optimistic projection for India, in which the country was seen overtaking Japan in FY27 and did not fall behind the UK in recent years.
These projections have been revised downwards as India’s revamped GDP, which saw the base year updated from 2011-12 to 2022-23, led to a smaller economy due to a correction in overestimation. The sharp decline in the rupee, nearly 10% in FY26, also impacted the estimates.
The downward revision is evident across years, with India’s GDP estimates in the April update consistently lower than those in October—for instance, the 2027 projection has been cut to $4.58 trillion from $4.96 trillion.
The change in India’s relative position is driven by a combination of statistical revisions and currency movements. A revision in the GDP base year and methodology has lowered the nominal size of the economy. India’s statistics ministry revised India’s nominal GDP down by 2.8% to 3.8% for four years between 2022-23 and 2023-24. While the rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar further weighed on the country's GDP in dollar terms, the British pound has largely strengthened, supporting a higher dollar-denominated GDP.
While these rankings are subject to multiple statistical factors, they are important for global understanding of India’s position in the world. The country's current trajectory of achieving the fourth-largest economy tag by FY28 and third-largest, leaving Germany behind, by 2031, will strengthen its position, even though these milestones have been deferred by one to two years. The bigger question, however, will remain on India’s overall prosperity, measured in terms of per capita GDP, rather than simply the size of the economy.