New Delhi: India will push back the release of its most closely watched economic numbers by a week in a move aimed at improving the quality of the data underpinning its Q4 and fiscal year provisional GDP estimates, as statisticians seek to better capture late-arriving corporate earnings and government accounts.
The statistics ministry has shifted the release of gross domestic product estimates for the January-March quarter and provisional full-year figures from the traditional 31 May schedule to 7 June each year (or the previous working day if that date is a holiday). This year, the data will be released on 5 June, Friday.
In a written response to Mint, the ministry said the change is intended to address constraints in data availability. “The information sourced from financial results of listed companies and central government accounts is generally available on the last working day of May each year, which makes it difficult to fully utilize these data sources in the GDP estimates released on the same day.”
At the core of the adjustment is the role of corporate earnings in national accounts. Corporate results are a key input in estimating quarterly gross value added (GVA), particularly in manufacturing and services. Listed companies are permitted up to 60 days to report fourth-quarter earnings, and the ministry said the additional week will “improve the coverage of companies used in the compilation process”.
Government finances are the second major input being affected. Data on taxes, subsidies and expenditure from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) are finalised only at the end of May, the ministry said. The extra time will allow these figures to be incorporated more accurately into estimates for taxes, subsidies and government final consumption expenditure (GFCE). Previously, the ministry had to rely on revised estimates announced in the Union budget for GDP calculations.
The revised schedule applies only to Q4 and provisional annual GDP estimates, which are released together at the end of May. The timing of quarterly GDP releases for the rest of the year remains unchanged. Q1 (April-June) estimates continue to be released on 31 August, Q2 (July–September) on 30 November, and Q3 (October–December) on 28 February each year.
Economists said the move is aimed primarily at improving the use of near-final corporate and government data in provisional estimates.
“The estimation methodology has already been laid out, and they likely want to capture as much real-time information as possible to reduce subsequent revisions to the extent possible,” said Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research.
Others, however, said the gain may be limited.
“A one-week delay may help capture somewhat more data from states and a slightly larger sample of corporate results,” said Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities PD. “But if provisional actuals were already being used earlier, the improvement may only be marginal.”
The ministry itself acknowledged that revisions from provisional estimates (PE) to first revised estimates (FRE) and final estimates will continue even under the revised base year series.
"In the new base year, attempts have been made to align various data sources and methodology in a manner to minimize the extent of revisions,” the ministry said. “In addition, if source data agencies attempt to revise data, we are bound to reflect those revisions in our estimates.”
It added that revised estimates incorporate more detailed datasets, including annual company accounts from the corporate affairs ministry, detailed budget documents, and audited accounts.
The 5 June GDP release will be closely watched for signals on how the economy closed FY26 before the full impact of the West Asia war sets in. Economists expect growth of around 7.5% in FY26, before moderating to 6.7% in FY27 amid higher crude oil prices, inflationary pressures and weaker global demand.