New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has claimed that India has agreed to stop Russian oil purchases as part of a long-pending bilateral trade deal, but analysts and refiners said that an immediate, abrupt halt is unlikely.
India is likely to continue importing around 1.2 million barrels per day of Russian oil in the next two-three months, with bookings already made for the period. A gradual decline would be the way to curb imports, rather than an immediate halt, said an executive with a refinery on the condition of anonymity.
Russian suppliers are offering discounts of up to $12 per barrel currently, the executive added.
"The India–US trade deal announced on 2 February is unlikely to result in a near-term reduction in India’s Russian crude imports. Russian volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals relative to ICE Brent. Imports are expected to stay broadly stable in the 1.1–1.3 mbd range through Q1 and early Q2, with any recent moderation offset by higher Middle East (West Asian) inflows rather than a structural shift away from Russian barrels," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at global ship tracking firm Kpler.
He added that although refiners are technically capable of operating without Urals grade of crude from Russia, a rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making any policy-driven recalibration gradual rather than immediate.
Queries emailed to the Union minister of petroleum and natural gas, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd, Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy on Tuesday evning were not immediately answered.
Ritolia said that despite a recent moderation in purchases (higher Middle East crude volumes have offset declining Russian imports), India is unlikely to fully disengage in the near term. A more pronounced reduction would likely require a clear policy shift by the government of India, which appears highly unlikely given that energy security and economics remain a primary policy objective amid increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics shaping global oil trade flows, he added.
"There is no directive from the government so far to halt supplies from Russia," said the executive with a refiner cited earlier.
Russia response
Meanwhile, Russia has said that there has been no indication from India on stopping crude. "So far, we haven't heard any statements from New Delhi on this matter," news agency AFP quoted Dmitry Peskov, press secretary to the president of Russia, as telling reporters.
Experts noted that the trade deal with the US would, however, accelerate India's import diversification strategy.
Data from Kpler showed that oil from the US is emerging as the primary beneficiary, potentially accounting for up to 10% of India’s crude intake, largely displacing lighter West African grades rather than Russian supply.
The refinery executive, however, said that the import of oil from the US cannot be significantly increased from the current levels, as Indian refiners would require recalibration for increased intake of the West Texas Intermediate. India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, making it highly vulnerable to supply-chain volatility, which can significantly affect the country’s energy security, fuel inflation, and current account deficit. An increase of about $1 per barrel may increase India's oil import bill by ₹13,000 crore. In FY25, India imported crude oil worth $167 billion.
Prashant Vasisht, senior vice-president and co-group head, corporate ratings at Icra Ltd., said that even in the event of a significant reduction or halt in purchases of Russian crude, Indian refiners have ample alternative sourcing options, including the US, as Russian oil accounted for less than 2% of India’s crude imports prior to FY23.
Russia ramped up exports of discounted crude to India after invading Ukraine in February 2022 and facing Western sanctions.
"The discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to the US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that replacement of Russian crude with market priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2%. Additionally, Venezuelan crudes are heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process these types of crudes," Vasisht said.
Ritolia, however, said that the volumes of Venezuelan crude are expected to remain "episodic and constrained by weaker economics, sanctions compliance, insurance, and blending requirements, positioning it more as a pricing lever than a structural alternative".
Given that Venezuelan crude is highly dense, refineries often need to blend it with other crude to for better processing, which results in higher expenses, although the supplies from the Latin American country are comparatively cheaper on a standalone basis, experts said.
Mint earlier reported that amid the diversification drive post-US sanctions on Rosneft and LUKOIL, two of Russia's largest oil suppliers from November, supplies from Iraq have been closing the gap with supplies from the Russian Federation, the largest supplier of crude to India. Data from Kpler, showed that during 1-20 January, India imported 1.06 million barrels of oil daily on an average from Iraq, about 40,000 barrels lower than 1.10 million barrels from Russia.
Russia emerged as the top supplier of oil to India in FY23 after the West curbed imports from Russia amid the Ukraine war. China and India purchased most of Russian oil in the past three years amid deep discounts. In FY25, Russia supplied about 35% of the overall imports.
Other key suppliers in West Asia are Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with supplies of 891,000 barrels and 385,000 barrels per day on an average in January so far. In December, Saudi Arabia exported 710,000 barrels per day to India, while UAE supplied 592,000 barrels per day. Apart from West Asia, the US (351,000 barrels per day in 1-20 January ), Nigeria (216,000 bpd), Guyana (210,000 bpd), Brazil (239,000 bpd) are some of the key emerging suppliers to India.