India's steel imports down 30% amid safeguard duties, exports up 21%

Yet, despite the steep fall, the country remained a net importer, with inbound shipments exceeding exports by 0.5mt.

According to an internal Union steel ministry report, reviewed by Mint, exports rose 21% y-o-y to 2.8mt, buoyed by improved demand from Europe and South-East Asia. September was the strongest of the six months for exports, with shipments at 0.58mt.

During the April-September period of 2004-25, steel imports stood at 4.74mt, and exports at 2.31mt, resulting in sharp deficit of 2.43mt.

Domestically, finished steel output rose 11% to 78.6mt, while consumption grew 9% to 78.9mt in the six months to September, signalling a strong underlying demand.

Market intelligence firm BigMint said India's continued position as a net importer, with inbound volumes exceeding exports, signals that underlying competitiveness issues remain. “While protectionist and quality control measures have stabilized trade flows, long-term sustainability will hinge on improving cost efficiency and global market alignment," it said.

Impact of safeguard duties

Analysts say ample local supply and lower international prices have reduced the need for imports. Safeguard duties being in place for flat steel has led to lower imports, which has consequently supported higher capacity utilization for domestic steel mills.

The government on 21 April announced the imposition of a 12% safeguard duty on the import of certain non-alloy and alloy steel flat products to protect domestic steel manufacturers from the adverse impact of import surges and to ensure fair competition in the market.

BigMint said that anti-dumping action targeting imports from Vietnam and China to curb unfair trade practices, particularly in hot-rolled and electrical steel categories, has helped bring down imports.

“The fall in imports is largely attributable to the safeguard duties being in place which has resulted in domestic steel prices trading at a discount to export offers. While imports have reduced and the pace of exports has picked up, the quantum of exports is still lower compared to what we typically export," Ankit Jain, vice-president and co-group head, Icra Ltd, told Mint in an e-mailed response.

Besides, there are some segments like auto where imports continue to happen, as certain grades of the alloy are not manufactured in India. Domestic capacity for electrical steel is also inadequate, prompting Indian users to rely on imports.

“A combination of these factors is leading to the net importer status," Jain said.

India’s import dependence remains visible in certain flat steel and high-grade alloy segments where domestic substitution is still limited. With infrastructure and construction demand expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, both production and exports could see a further uptick.

The export scenario

India’s steel exports rose 21% y-o-y to 2.8mt during April–September FY26. But, compared to previous years, the shipments have been much lower.

Between FY20 and FY24, India’s finished steel exports have been in the range of 7-13mt annually, Jain pointed out. Global challenges and competition from China in key export markets altered the trend in FY25.

The current recovery in Indian exports is driven by improved demand from the European Union (EU), which accounted for the largest share of outbound shipments during April-September.

The recovery in EU demand, supported by restocking and supply constraints within the bloc, helped Indian mills offset softer orders from the Middle East, BigMint said.

With the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) slated for full enforcement in January 2026, EU steel importers face increasing uncertainty over future procurement and cost structures. Anticipating higher prices linked to CBAM’s carbon tax obligations, buyers (in EU) have stepped up imports of lower-priced steel and are selectively booking hot-rolled coil (HRC) cargoes for arrival before October to shield themselves from expected cost escalations.

“Indian steel producers are prioritizing timely bookings in the EU as the new regulations could erode their export price competitiveness and restrict access," BigMint said.

Government capex pick-up

Apart from healthy steel demand growth, there has been a notable pick up in central government capital expenditure in the current fiscal.

Steel ministry data showed that monthly consumption of finished steel averaged 13.15mt during April-September. It registered a high of 13.77mt in August 2025 and a low of 12.03 mt in April. Consumption in September 2025 at 13.48mt was above the average mark.

Data showed that the capital expenditure for the first five months of the fiscal stood at 38.5% of budget estimates (BE) compared to 27% last year, when the government spending was curtailed due to elections. After the 11% y-o-y dip in July 2025, the Centre’s capex more than doubled in August 2025. This continues to support local demand, Jain explained.

“ There is enough capacity domestically available to cater to the increased demand. Infrastructure and construction activities which typically consume long products and account for bulk of the steel consumption for India, have no import threats as India hardly imports any long steel," Icra's Jain said.

Ministry data also showed that monthly production of finished steel averaged 13.09mt during April–September It registered a high of 13.44mt in August 2025 and a low of 12.63mt in April 2025. Production in September at 13.33mt was above the average mark.