India trade surplus with Turkey shrinks to a decade low in FY25, falls for third straight year

New Delhi: India’s goods trade surplus with Turkey fell to a near-decade low of $2.7 billion in FY25, continuing a three-year slide that has taken it back to pre-covid levels, commerce ministry data showed. 

The data reflects a steady decline in both exports and imports since FY23, reversing the sharp post-pandemic surge seen in FY22. The downturn may continue in FY26 with softening of trade ties between the two nations amid growing calls for disengagement with Turkey following tensions between India and Pakistan.

Exports to Turkey dropped 14% in FY25 to $5.72 billion, while imports fell 21% to around $3 billion, reducing the trade surplus to $2.7 billion. India ran an overall merchandise trade deficit of $282.83 billion in FY25.

The value of goods surplus with Turkey stood at $3.42 billion in FY17 and saw modest fluctuations until a sharp spike in FY22 to $6.72 billion. 

It has since declined, falling to $5.4 billion in FY23, $2.86 billion in FY24, and $2.7 billion in FY25.

India’s primary exports to Turkey include value-added petroleum products, yarn and fabric, auto components, electrical machinery, and internal combustion engine parts. Key imports include crude oil, gold, granite, and iron and steel.

The fall in India's exports to Turkey is largely due to steep declines in a handful of high-value goods, experts said.

"India’s trade with Turkey has taken a sharp turn in recent years, with exports falling dramatically after a strong surge between 2020 and 2022. These setbacks underscore India’s reliance on a narrow set of exports to Turkey and reveal how vulnerable trade flows are to shifts in demand, pricing, or regulatory policies," said Ajay Srivastava, former trade service official and founder of the economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative.

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Meanwhile, India’s trade with Azerbaijan has followed a different trajectory as exports rose 4.8% in FY25 to $94 million, while imports stood at just $2 million.

Since FY23, India has moved from a trade deficit to a surplus with Azerbaijan, largely due to a strategic reduction in crude oil imports from the country.

India’s exports to Azerbaijan span a wide range—from rice and electrical appliances to pharmaceuticals and processed meat. Imports are limited but include crude oil, leather goods, inorganic chemicals, and lead.

 Crude oil has consistently made up more than 94% of India’s imports from Azerbaijan—topping 99% in 2022 and 2024—highlighting a heavy dependence on a single commodity. This makes the trade relationship vulnerable to swings in global oil prices and supply disruptions," he added.

A spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce & Industry didn't respond to emailed queries.

Broader diplomatic chill

Bilateral trade with countries like Turkey and Azerbaijan is likely to be impacted in FY26, with prominent trade groups in India calling for a boycott of goods from both nations over their public support for Pakistan in its recent dispute with India.

The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), which represents over 90 million traders through a network of 40,000 associations, has urged Indian businesses to halt trade with Turkey.

The sentiment appears to be resonating beyond the trading community. Online travel platform MakeMyTrip reported a 60% drop in flight bookings to Turkey and Azerbaijan over the past week, with cancellations surging by 250%.

Separately, the All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation—which represents 450,000 FMCG distributors—has called for an “indefinite and total boycott” of several Turkish consumer goods.

Leading Indian e-commerce platforms Myntra and Reliance-owned Ajio have also stopped selling certain Turkish brands in the clothing and fashion segments.