India’s exports to the US recover in October after four-month slump

New Delhi: India’s exports to the US showed signs of recovery in October after four straight months of decline, even as the broader export landscape remained subdued and the country’s import bill ballooned due to a sharp rise in gold and silver shipments.

Trade data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Monday showed India’s merchandise exports to the US at $6.3 billion in October, up 14.5% from September, the first month-on-month increase since May despite Washington’s 50% tariff on most Indian goods.

However, at $6.3 billion, this remains lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, according to GTRI’s co-founder Ajay Srivastava.

Otherwise, 15 of the top 20 export destinations registered year-on-year declines, including a 54.9% fall in exports to Singapore and a 52.4% drop to Australia. Shipments to the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and France also registered double-digit declines, reflecting broad global demand weakness, as per a GTRI report released on Monday.

India’s overall exports fell 11.8% year-on-year in October, with only five of its top 20 markets recording any growth. Only Spain, China, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Belgium showed year-on-year growth in October, with Spain recording a 43.4% rise largely due to higher petroleum product shipments.

As per the GTRI report, the October uptick in exports to the US offers temporary relief but does not reverse the broader trend. India’s US-bound shipments have shrunk nearly 28.4% between May and October, erasing more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value during the period.

After exports last rose in May to $8.8 billion, they fell steadily through June ($8.3 billion), July ($8 billion) and August ($6.9 billion), before dropping sharply in September to $5.5 billion as the 50% tariff took hold.

Product-wise details for October are not yet available, but Srivastava said tariff-exempt categories such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals may have performed better. The limited recovery shows exporters are gradually adjusting to the new tariff environment, although the pressure remains high for sectors such as textiles, engineering goods and leather.

After recording positive growth for four consecutive months in the current fiscal year, engineering goods exports declined sharply in October 2025, reflecting the impact of punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Engineering goods exports fell 16.71% year-on-year to $9.37 billion in October 2025, compared with $11.25 billion in October 2024.

“The decline in engineering goods shipments in October was expected, considering that the 50% tariff imposed by the US came into force in the last week of August,” said Pankaj Chadha, chairman of Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC).

The cumulative export number for the fiscal has, however, remained positive, thanks to reasonably good performance in the first six months of the current financial year.

Export of engineering goods rose from $67.60 billion in April–October last year to $68.73 billion this year, marking an increase of about 1.68%.

“The government's latest package for exporters, comprising the ₹25,060 crore Export Promotion Mission (EPM) and up to ₹20,000 crore of additional credit support, will go a long way in boosting the export ecosystem. It is worth noting that the EPM accords priority to the engineering goods sector along with other labour-intensive industries,” he said.

“India’s $6 billion exports to the US in October 2025 highlight the growing trust in the country’s engineering and manufacturing strength. Buyers across the world are clearly valuing India’s shift toward high-quality, innovation-led production,” said K.L. Bansal, chairman and managing director of DEE Development Engineers, a manufacturer and supplier of process piping products.

According to an analysis by the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), India’s textile exports fell 12.92% in October 2025 compared to the same month last year, while apparel exports declined 12.88% during the period. Together, textiles and apparel exports recorded a 12.91% contraction in October over October 2024.

For the April–October period, textile exports registered a decline of 3.54%, whereas apparel exports posted a modest growth of 1.13%. Overall, combined textiles and apparel exports during April–October 2025 fell 1.57% from the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

In value terms, exports of cotton yarn, fabrics, made-ups and handloom products dropped from $1,045.67 million in October 2024 to $906.48 million in October 2025, a decline of 13.31%.

Man-made yarn, fabrics and made-ups recorded an 11.75% fall during the month, while jute products including floor coverings saw a sharper 27.27% drop.

Cumulatively, textiles exports for April–October stood at $11.57 billion, down 3.54% year-on-year, while apparel exports rose slightly to $8.83 billion during the same period.

The share of textiles and apparel in India’s total exports stood at 7.76% in October 2025, marginally lower than 7.85% a year earlier.