India has secured lower tariffs from the US with the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement, but details shared last week, especially by Washington and President Donald Trump, have raised questions about the deal’s sustainability.

Three issues sit at the core: Can India realistically buy $500 billion worth of US goods over five years? Has it committed to halting oil imports from Russia? And does the deal shield India from future tariff hikes or trade restrictions?

Each of these questions highlights the gap between the deal’s promises and the practical challenges ahead. Mint examines them one by one.

Aspirational, not realistic

As part of the framework, India has committed to importing $500 billion worth of goods from the US over the next five years. Currently, India imports around $52 billion annually, and as per Mint calculations, this figure will need to grow at a rate of 22.24% per year (which would take it to $143 billion in FY31) if India is to meet this commitment. That would be a steep climb considering that India's imports from the US have grown roughly 11% over the past decade.

Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global, estimates that in a best-case scenario, India’s imports from the US could reach $125-140 billion by FY31, recording a CAGR of 20%.

A big part of this commitment is the purchase of Boeing aircraft, which is also unrealistic.

“India has about 200 Boeing aircraft today. Even if airlines add another 200 planes at around $300 million each, that is only about $60 billion spread over five years—and this assumes airlines buy only Boeing, which is unrealistic given Airbus competition and commercial considerations,” Arora added.

India can scale up imports in several sectors such as oil, natural gas, defence, and electronic goods, among others, where US’s share in total imports can go up to 10-15% over the next five years.

Crude question

The US has said India committed to halt Russian oil imports and has set up mechanisms to monitor compliance. India has offered little clarity on whether such a pledge was made. Washington has hinted that tariff relief could be reversed if the terms are not followed.

Despite months of punitive tariffs, India still sources nearly 30% of its oil from Russia. While it is true Russia was not a destination for India before the war with Ukraine and a shift away from Moscow is possible, especially since resuming oil purchases from Venezuela is possible, it is unlikely to happen quickly.

Russia’s share of Indian oil imports rose incrementally from 2.3% in FY22 to 16.4% in FY23, and settled at about 28% in FY24, before moderating to 20% in December 2025. Experts suggest India can reduce Russian oil without significantly affecting costs or refining margins, but only if New Delhi clarifies its stance and timeline.

The crisis of caveats

India’s trade deal with the US comes with several caveats, which fits into a broader pattern that has emerged during Washington’s trade talks with several countries.

South Korea’s experience offers a clear example. In April 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on South Korean imports, despite an existing KORUS free trade agreement. After protests and negotiations, a deal emerged in July where tariffs would drop to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in US investments and $100 billion in energy purchases.

However, this reprieve was short-lived, Trump accused South Korea of "not living up" to the agreement and raised tariffs back to 25%.

The EU experienced similar uncertainty. After Trump threatened a 50% tariff, negotiations produced an agreement with $750 billion in US energy purchases and $600 billion in EU investment by 2028, accompanied by a 15% tariff reduction.

Yet, tariff threats persisted, even over unrelated disputes such as Greenland. Japan and China, despite having trade agreements in place, also stare at uncertainty. Under Trump’s approach to trade diplomacy, tariff risk is rarely eliminated, it is only postponed.

(This story was updated to reflect the $500 billion imports from the US in the trade deal is the total for the next five years and not a target for fiscal year 2031.)

India has secured lower tariffs from the US with the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement, but details shared last week, especially by Washington and President Donald Trump, have raised questions about the deal’s sustainability.

Three issues sit at the core: Can India realistically buy $500 billion worth of US goods over five years? Has it committed to halting oil imports from Russia? And does the deal shield India from future tariff hikes or trade restrictions?

Each of these questions highlights the gap between the deal’s promises and the practical challenges ahead. Mint examines them one by one.

Aspirational, not realistic

As part of the framework, India has committed to importing $500 billion worth of goods from the US over the next five years. Currently, India imports around $52 billion annually, and as per Mint calculations, this figure will need to grow at a rate of 22.24% per year (which would take it to $143 billion in FY31) if India is to meet this commitment. That would be a steep climb considering that India's imports from the US have grown roughly 11% over the past decade.

Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global, estimates that in a best-case scenario, India’s imports from the US could reach $125-140 billion by FY31, recording a CAGR of 20%.

A big part of this commitment is the purchase of Boeing aircraft, which is also unrealistic.

“India has about 200 Boeing aircraft today. Even if airlines add another 200 planes at around $300 million each, that is only about $60 billion spread over five years—and this assumes airlines buy only Boeing, which is unrealistic given Airbus competition and commercial considerations,” Arora added.

India can scale up imports in several sectors such as oil, natural gas, defence, and electronic goods, among others, where US’s share in total imports can go up to 10-15% over the next five years.

Crude question

The US has said India committed to halt Russian oil imports and has set up mechanisms to monitor compliance. India has offered little clarity on whether such a pledge was made. Washington has hinted that tariff relief could be reversed if the terms are not followed.

Despite months of punitive tariffs, India still sources nearly 30% of its oil from Russia. While it is true Russia was not a destination for India before the war with Ukraine and a shift away from Moscow is possible, especially since resuming oil purchases from Venezuela is possible, it is unlikely to happen quickly.

Russia’s share of Indian oil imports rose incrementally from 2.3% in FY22 to 16.4% in FY23, and settled at about 28% in FY24, before moderating to 20% in December 2025. Experts suggest India can reduce Russian oil without significantly affecting costs or refining margins, but only if New Delhi clarifies its stance and timeline.

The crisis of caveats

India’s trade deal with the US comes with several caveats, which fits into a broader pattern that has emerged during Washington’s trade talks with several countries.

South Korea’s experience offers a clear example. In April 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on South Korean imports, despite an existing KORUS free trade agreement. After protests and negotiations, a deal emerged in July where tariffs would drop to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in US investments and $100 billion in energy purchases.

However, this reprieve was short-lived, Trump accused South Korea of "not living up" to the agreement and raised tariffs back to 25%.

The EU experienced similar uncertainty. After Trump threatened a 50% tariff, negotiations produced an agreement with $750 billion in US energy purchases and $600 billion in EU investment by 2028, accompanied by a 15% tariff reduction.

Yet, tariff threats persisted, even over unrelated disputes such as Greenland. Japan and China, despite having trade agreements in place, also stare at uncertainty. Under Trump’s approach to trade diplomacy, tariff risk is rarely eliminated, it is only postponed.

(This story was updated to reflect the $500 billion imports from the US in the trade deal is the total for the next five years and not a target for fiscal year 2031.)