For millions of years, moist winds from the Mediterranean have blown over the Indian highlands, watering winter crops, topping up Himalayan snow, and feeding millions in the sub-continent. However, western disturbances (WDs) are now changing their spots, posing challenges for farmers and casting a cloud over water security.
Western disturbances arrive primarily between December and February period, bringing rain and snow to northwest and north India. According to weather experts, the number of western disturbances in the last three months was the highest in the last five years, but they were far weaker, resulting in the highest rainfall deficit in those months.
The change could potentially heighten temperature variability and lengthen dry spells, raising concerns among experts.
Below-normal
"A majority of the western disturbances that influenced India during the winter season, especially during December to February, were feeble, resulting in below-normal rainfall and limited snowfall activity across large parts of northwestern India," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Northwest India recorded rainfall deficits of 86.8% in February and 12% in January. In December 2025, the region saw an 84.8% precipitation shortfall, according to IMD data.
In February, nine western disturbances were recorded over North India, compared to four in January and eight in December, against the usual monthly average of five to six. However, most were weak in intensity. While the frequency exceeded climatological averages in some months, low intensity prevented widespread precipitation.
Critical lifeline
Western disturbances play a critical role in sustaining rabi, as winter crops are called in India, and horticultural crops. Adequate winter rainfall improves soil moisture and reduces irrigation dependence, particularly in less-irrigated and hilly states.
"Crops in hilly states such as Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand depend on western disturbance-induced rains, as these states don't have a well-irrigated network. So any decrease in rainfall affects the yield of horticulture crops such as apple, plum, apricot, vegetables and cereals," said Dr S.K. Bhardwaj, head, environmental science department, Dr Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry.
“Rain and snowfall were also unevenly distributed during December and January, which may affect crops,” he added.
Experts caution that diminished winter precipitation could raise input costs and weigh on food grain output. Wheat, a key rabi crop, may see lower productivity in the absence of sufficient winter rain, with implications for procurement and price stability.
Himalayan bounty
In the Himalayan region, western disturbances are also the main source of winter snowfall. The accumulated snow acts as a natural reservoir, sustaining rivers that provide drinking water, hydropower, and downstream irrigation.
However, scientists noted that well-irrigated states such as Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh are relatively less vulnerable to rainfall deficits. “Regions such as Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh have well-established irrigation networks, so cereal crops such as wheat are less impacted even though there is a deficit of rainfall,” said Ratan Tiwari, director, ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal.