After a scorching summer and late showers, the monsoon has picked up across the subcontinent, but water levels at major reservoirs remain sharply below last year's levels, raising concerns about insufficient irrigation and hydropower generation. Levels at 166 major reservoirs are currently 39% below last year's levels, official data showed, holding potential implications for the country's food security and energy requirements.
According to Central Water Commission data updated till 16 July, the major reservoirs held 63.25 billion cubic metres (bcm) of water, down from 103.96 bcm last year. These reservoirs, which together have a capacity of 183.57 bcm, are now just 34.5% full.
Low reservoir storage may constrain irrigation for kharif and rabi crops, reduce hydropower generation and tighten drinking water supplies. It may also affect crop yields, raise food inflation risks and increase pressures on inter-state water sharing.
Out of the 142.3 tonnes of foodgrain that India produced in FY26, 53% was harvested during the kharif season from June to October, when the south-west monsoon sweeps the country. Rabi crop sown in winter accounted for 41%, with the rest coming from the summer crop.
According to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, a deficit in reservoir levels will affect agricultural crops, especially the rabi crop, which depends heavily on reservoir water. Reservoir water is key for rearing cattle and for drinking water purposes in rural areas, Sabnavis said.
The monitored reservoirs account for about 71% of India's total estimated live storage capacity of 257.812 bcm. Reservoir storage remained below year-ago levels across all five regions, with the southern region reporting the weakest storage at 28.4% of capacity, followed by the eastern region at 28.5%. While the northern region stood at 33.1%, the western (44.5%) and central (36.8%) regions also trailed levels in the corresponding period last year.
Uneven rainfall
The replenishment of reservoirs has lagged, particularly in southern and eastern India, where rainfall has remained uneven. According to the India Meteorological Department, the deficit in cumulative rainfall across the country during 1 June-15 July was 23%, with the east and northeast recording the widest deficit of 36%, followed by the southern peninsula (26%) and northwest India (19%). Central India reported a relatively lower rainfall shortfall of 13%.
“The current low reservoir levels could affect water-intensive crops such as paddy, sugarcane and cotton, especially if rainfall remains below normal in the coming weeks,” said Sudhir Panwar, a farm policy expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission. “Reduced water availability during critical growth stages may lower yields and impact overall production.”
“We should not panic because the monsoon goes on right up to September end and may also get delayed to October,” Sabnavis said. “So, at that point of time, we have to see the water levels. As of now, reservoir levels will matter for crops which don't have access to irrigation.”
India’s farm economy remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains. This is already playing out in kharif sowing. Farmers planted crops across 65.8 million hectares as of 17 July, down 4.2 million hectares from a year earlier, according to the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare.
“For assessing the final outcome, one might have to wait until the end of season when the overall water storage situation and monsoon performance will become clearer. Only then can we accurately assess the likely impact on rabi sowing and production,” said D K Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd.
According to IMD’s monthly outlook, India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July, at less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). The forecast follows India's driest June in more than a decade, and the fifth driest since records began in 1901, with the south-west monsoon rainfall 39.8% below the LPA. The country received 99.5 mm of rainfall during the month, compared with the normal of 165.3 mm.
Hydropower generation
According to AK Singh, adjunct professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee and former general manager at NTPC (Hydro Wing), hydropower generation may fall by 9-10% YoY this year. This is in the wake of the expected monsoon deficit as well as low reservoir levels.
Data from the National Power Portal showed that India's hydropower generation fell 19.5% to 13,361.96 million units (MU) in June from 16,593.07 MU during the same period last year.
Queries emailed to the jal shakti ministry on 20 July remained unanswered till press time.