comScore
Active Stocks
Wed Nov 29 2023 15:58:39
  1. Tata Steel share price
  2. 127.7 0.67%
  1. Tata Motors share price
  2. 712.15 2.09%
  1. Wipro share price
  2. 406.15 2.32%
  1. State Bank Of India share price
  2. 568.5 0.7%
  1. HDFC Bank share price
  2. 1,559.25 1.94%
Business News/ Economy / India’s GDP growth seen at 6.2% in FY24, fastest among major economies: Reuters poll
Back Back

India’s GDP growth seen at 6.2% in FY24, fastest among major economies: Reuters poll

India's economic growth will be supported by government spending ahead of May's general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who did say the forecast risks were skewed to the downside.

Nearly 60% of economists, 28 of 48, forecast the RBI to have cut rates by at least 25 basis points before July with the median putting it at 6.25% in the second quarter of next year.Premium
Nearly 60% of economists, 28 of 48, forecast the RBI to have cut rates by at least 25 basis points before July with the median putting it at 6.25% in the second quarter of next year.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2% in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll.

Asia's third-largest economy is projected to grow 6.3% in FY25, the same as predicted last month, according to the median forecasts in the September 20-26 poll of 65 economists conducted by Reuters. Forecasts for this fiscal year ranged widely from 4.6% to 7.1%.

India's economic growth will be supported by government spending ahead of May's general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who did say the forecast risks were skewed to the downside.

Also Read: Corporate investments are still to show a long-awaited recovery

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% in July-September quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024.

A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

While Narendra Modi's government increased spending in the past few years to build roads, railways, and other infrastructure, helping India defy the global slowdown trend, it has so far failed to create enough jobs.

Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels :rocket: Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights! Click here!

But most economists said expected growth was still well below potential and a drier than normal monsoon season so far could act as a restraint in an economy where agriculture employs about half the workforce in a country of over 1.4 billion people, Reuters reported.

While the poll showed India's retail inflation would average 5.5% this fiscal year and 4.8% next, above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, over two third of economists, 23 of 34, said the risks were skewed that it would be higher.

Even though inflation was not expected to reach that goal across the forecast horizon, economists expect the next move from the Reserve Bank of India to be a cut, the Reuters report said.

Also Read: China's economic growth target of 5% for 2023 at risk due to property crisis

Nearly 60% of economists, 28 of 48, forecast the RBI to have cut rates by at least 25 basis points before July with the median putting it at 6.25% in the second quarter of next year.

All but one of the 71 economists surveyed said the RBI would keep its key repo rate unchanged at 6.50% at the conclusion of the October 4-6 meeting, with one expecting a 25 basis point hike. Median forecasts showed it staying there for the rest of this fiscal year.

Catch Live Market Updates here

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Milestone Alert!
Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more.

Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
More Less
Updated: 27 Sep 2023, 10:50 AM IST
Next Story footLogo
Recommended For You
Switch to the Mint app for fast and personalized news - Get App