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Business News/ Economy / India's Q4 GDP data to be out today. Here's what to expect

India's Q4 GDP data to be out today. Here's what to expect

India's GDP data for the quarter ended in March, and for FY 23, will be released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on May 31, Wednesday. Take a look at experts projections before the release of data

India's Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday. Take a look at what experts are expecting (Mint)Premium
India's Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday. Take a look at what experts are expecting (Mint)

Driven by factors like strong agriculture prospects and improved domestic consumption, India's GDP is expected to have grown 5.5% during the January-March 2023 quarter, against the growth of 4.4% during the preceding quarter.

The GDP data for the March quarter is set to be released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on May 31. There are chances that the gross domestic product (GDP) of India can surpass its first advance estimate of 7% by NSO.

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Q4 estimates, India's real GDP growth will stand at 5.1% in the previous quarter. For 2023-24, GDP growth will stand at 6.5%.

Beating the El Nino effect, normal monsoon resulting in improved rural consumption and investment is one of the main factors in play in boosting the Indian economy. This will also lead to strengthened business and consumer confidence and robust credit expansion.

According to the poll conducted by Mint on 18 economists, Indian economy is expected to rise in the January-March quarter, but growth will remain uneven in different sectors.

Before the release of Q4 GDP data, take a look at what experts think about India's GDP growth in the quarter that ended in March.

Q4 and full FY23 GDP projections by expert

There was uneven economic activity in January-March quarter, with services demand rising above than that for goods. There was an unexpected growth in exports of services amidst a contraction in merchandise items, said Aditi Nayar, chief econimist at Icra Ltd said in a latest report.

“Economic activity in January-March remained uneven, with the domestic demand for services outpacing that for goods, and, surprisingly, robust exports of services amidst a contraction in merchandise items," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra Ltd in a 24 May report.

Domestic GDP growth is set for release amidst a backdrop of a global economic downturn, characterized by recessionary pressures in several countries. This is the result of a range of geopolitical factors, like regional tensions, climate-related shocks, increased debt servicing obligations due to rising interest rates, etc.

“Amidst this global hullabaloo, India is expected to continue its showdown in pursuing a different pathway of zeroing in on drivers of growth, looking for a renewed surge in resilient manufacturing while supporting the services sector to embrace enhanced efficiency," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, according to a Mint report.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh has set India's GDP growth prospects to be at 5.5% for Q4FY23, and 7.1% for FY23.

Driven by momentum in trade, hotel, and transportation, India's Q4 GDP growth will stand at 5.1% and FY23 growth will stay at 7%, believes Madhavi Arora, Lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services. She said that growth in FY24 will slow to 5.7%.

“Growth in Q4 is expected to be driven by momentum in trade, hotel, and transportation while government spending may have also picked up. There are nascent signs of consumption recovery, however, it is still led by urban more than rural. Besides, net exports were less of a drag to growth amid lower trade deficit and higher services net exports," Arora said.

Balancing between the packed performance of the services sector and the slump in net exports and the manufacturing sector, India's GDP growth in FY23 will remain at 6.8% and in Q4 at 4.4%, projects Care Ratings.

“Growth is expected to be led by the services sector while net exports and the manufacturing sector are expected to weigh on growth. Economic growth is projected to moderate to 6.1% in FY24 amid global economic uncertainties and likely spillovers from the external sector," Care Ratings said.

Reflecting the strong performance of Indian companies, around 1700 listed entities reported top-line growth of 12% in Q4FY23. Their net profit grew by around 19% as compared to the same period the previous year.

Improved foreign capital inflows were another remarkable achievement and a performance booster for Indian markets. Foreign institutional investors (FII) YTD inflows in FY24 touched $6 billion, a reversal of the trend from 2022.

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Updated: 31 May 2023, 09:56 AM IST
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