Brent above $110 on Trump's fresh threats to Iran, OPEC+ output-hike decision caps surge

Global oil prices traded higher on Monday morning after US President Donald Trump threatened potential strikes on Iran's power and other infrastructure if it fails to revoke the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday.

Concerns of further escalation lifted oil prices. However, gains were capped after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia—together known as ‘OPEC+’—decided to increase production in May.

Around 7:15 AM, the June contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $110.58, higher by 1.42% from its previous close. The May contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX rose marginally by 0.32% to $111.90 a barrel.

The US president on Sunday set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Tehran with "Hell" in an expletive-laden post on his Truth Social platform.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F***** Strait, you crazy b******s, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Seemingly setting a fresh deadline for Iran, in another post, he wrote: "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!".

Iran continued to remain defiant. The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US president of pushing the US toward “a living HELL” and warned that the region could “burn”.

"Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes. The only real solution is respecting the rights of the Iranian people and ending this dangerous game," Ghalibaf said in a tweet.

OPEC+ move

In another major development for oil markets, OPEC+ on Sunday decided to expand oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023— Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—met virtually on 5 April 2026 to review global market conditions and outlook.

"In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026. The 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner," said an OPEC statement on Sunday.

It added that the countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions.

India exposure

For India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, sustained crude strength carries significant macro risks. The country imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, making it highly vulnerable to geopolitical supply shocks.

An increase of $1 per barrel sustained over a year can raise India’s annual import bill by about ₹16,000 crore, adding pressure on inflation and fiscal balances. Higher crude also widens the current account deficit and weakens the rupee.