Oil prices trade subdued amid fragile ceasefire, peace deal hopes

Global oil prices traded marginally lower on Thursday morning despite continued tensions over curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

While market sentiment remains impacted by supply concerns, hopes of the ceasefire holding through 21 April and another round of Iran-US peace talks weighed on prices.

At 7:30 AM, the June contract of Brent on Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $94.68, lower by 0.26% from its previous close. The May contract of West Texas Intermediate on the NYMEX fell 0.36% to $90.96 a barrel.

Peace hopes

A high-level delegation led by Pakistani army chief Asim Munir reached Iran on Wednesday and held talks with Iranian officials on the possibility of a new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Iranian foreign minister Syed Abbas Araghchi wrote on a post on X:

“Delighted to welcome Field Marshal Munir to Iran. Expressed gratitude for Pakistan's gracious hosting of dialogue, emphasizing that it reflects our deep and great bilateral relationship. Our commitment to promoting peace and stability in the region remains strong—and shared.”

Further, a White House spokesperson on Wednesday expressed optimism for continued negotiations between the US and Iran, saying future talks were likely to be held again in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, Al Jazeera reported.

Supply disruptions

However, tensions persisted with continuing attacks by Israel on Lebanon, the ongoing naval blockade of Iran by the US, and the Iranian military threatening to block trade through the Red Sea if the naval blockade continued.

Global oil and gas trade has already been severely impacted due to the war and the eventual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with about one-fifth of global energy trade curtailed.

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, on Wednesday warned of difficult times for the global economy due to a prolonged war in West Asia, as it would keep oil prices elevated and add to inflationary risks.

India’s energy push

Amid a global energy supply crunch, Union minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Puri on Wednesday met the US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, to discuss bilateral energy cooperation. Their talks focused on strengthening the energy partnership and securing greater access to American energy commodities for Indian companies.

The meeting gains significance as India has been looking to diversify its energy sourcing — including crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Both countries have been making efforts to enhance bilateral energy ties.

The US has emerged as a key supplier of LPG to India in the current crisis, as supplies from West Asia — which comprised 90% of India's LPG imports before the war — have dropped drastically.