Oil production to take hit, output from Middle East expected to drop by 9 million barrel per day
Oil production from the Middle East is expected to reduce by around 9 million barrels per day in April 2026, according to United States government agency Energy Information Administration's estimates.
Oil production from the Middle East is expected to be significantly impacted in April, with output from the region likely to reduce by around 9 million barrels per day in April, as per a Bloomberg report citing United States government estimates.
Production from key countries, including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are expected to be shut this month, cutting crude production by 9.1 million barrels a day in April, estimates from the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook showed.
This is an increase from the 7.5 million barrels per day hit in crude production recorded in March, it added.
Iran war ‘one of the worst energy disruptions in history’
The figures are the latest sign that the war in Iran has become one of the worst disruptions to global energy markets in history as shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz are severely curtailed.
If the conflict draws to a close by the end of April, as the agency assumes, shut-ins will reduce to 6.7 million barrels per day in May, according to the report. By the end of late 2026, production would be expected to return near pre-conflict levels.
Buyers turn to US to fill gap
Global buyers have increasingly turned to the US to fill the gap left by Middle Eastern counties. The agency noted that American crude exports are set to surge to records. US drillers are also expected to follow US President Donald Trump’s call for higher oil production as prices surge to multi-year highs.
Meanwhile, the EIA now expects US crude production to climb further next year. The country’s output is expected to reach nearly 14 million barrels a day in 2027, up by 120,000 barrels a day from the last estimates in March.
Trump's deadline for reopening Strait of Hormuz looms
Notably, Trump has issued an 8 pm ET deadline on Tuesday for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US begins attacks on critical infrastructure. In a Truth Social post, he threatened that if an agreement is not reached today, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” adding that he doesn't want that to happen, “but it probably will”.
In response, the United Nations issued a statement stressing upon established international rules when it comes to war. “Even wars have rules,” the UN said in a post on X, adding, “The Geneva Conventions protect civilians in conflict and help ensure assistance reaches those in need, without discrimination.”
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
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