Better sowing season for pulses could slash retail prices by January: Consumer affairs secretary

New Delhi: A better sowing season for pulses could cause prices to fall significantly by the start of 2025, easing the burden on consumers by reducing food inflation, consumer affairs secretary Nidhi Khare told Mint in an interview. The consumer affairs ministry expects the price of tur dal to fall by 28%, from ₹167 per kg to ₹120 per kg by then, she said, adding that urad and moong dal prices are expected to drop as well.

Retail inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 5.08% year-on-year in June, government data showed, after dropping to a 12-month low of 4.75% in May. The rise was due to higher food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket. Food inflation based on the consumer food price index (CFPI) rose 9.36% year-on-year in June, up from an 8.69% increase in May and 8.70% in April. Pulses account for 2.4% of the overall CPI basket and 6% of the food basket.

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The average retail price of urad dal on 29 July was ₹126 per kg and moong dal ₹117 per kg. According to the ministry’s estimates, the price of urad dal will drop to ₹91 per kg and moong dal to ₹84 per kg in the next few months, Khare said. The new crop will begin to arrive in December, and retail prices are expected to reflect in January, she added.

“The El Niño effect is now over, and we have entered into La Niña. As a result, pulses are expected to be very good, and the sowing data from states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand reflect this positive trend,” Khare said.

The total stock of pulses is currently 19.74 lakh tonnes. Of this, 10.21 lakh tonnes was procured through the Price Stabilisation Fund (PSF) and the remaining 9.53 lakh tonnes under the Price Support Scheme (PSS).

Prices have been falling since mid-June

According to the price monitoring report from the consumer affairs ministry, mandi prices of most pulses have been falling since mid-June, thanks to good summer production in major states. The price of tur dal fell 4% from ₹12,200 per quintal in mid-June to ₹11,700 per quintal in mid-July. The price of urad dal dropped from ₹9,200 per quintal to ₹9,025 per quintal, while the price of moong dal fell from ₹8,400 per quintal to ₹8,200 per quintal over the same period. The price of chana dal fell from ₹7,200 per quintal to ₹7,050 per quintal, while masoor dal prices remained flat at most mandis.

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This decline has started reflecting in retail prices. The average retail price of tur dal fell from ₹168.34 per kg on 18 July to ₹167.57 per kg on 25 July. Urad dal prices fell from ₹126.93 per kg to ₹126.57 per kg, and moong dal prices dropped from ₹118.23 per kg to ₹117.63 per kg, the ministry report showed.

"This is the emerging situation, and we are expecting a further decline with the ongoing kharif sowing. For tur, if the current sowing trend continues and no adverse weather conditions occur during the critical growing and flowering period, the price may decrease to ₹120 per kg by January,” Khare said.

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The cultivation area for pulses such as tur, urad and moong rose 14% year-on-year to 102 lakh hectares as of 26 July, which is expected to boost pulses production in the 2024-25 season. The sowing area of tur surged 34% to 38.53 lakh hectares, from 28.73 lakh hectares during the same period last year. About 4.5 million tonnes of pulses are expected to be produced this fiscal year, significantly more than last year's estimate of 3.3 million tonnes.