India Q1 GDP Live Updates: India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal (2023-2024), compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent in the previous January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23, according to official data shared by the National Statistical Office. India remains one of the fastest growing major economies, especially as China's post-pandemic recovery has slowed.
The GDP print came largely in line with Street estimates as economists projected that the economy recorded the fastest annual pace in a year, driven by the services sector and greater capital expenditure.
Stay tuned to our India Q1 GDP Live blog for all the latest updates on India’s economic growth.
India Q1 GDP Highlights:
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India Q1 GDP Live Updates: India to clock GDP growth of 6.5% in FY24 despite rainfall deficit, says CEA
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient monsoon rains.
He also said that there is no real cause for concern that inflation would spike out of control as both the government and the Reserve Bank are taking adequate steps to maintain supply and keep prices under check.
The CEA said food inflation is likely to subside with the arrival of fresh stock and government measures. However, the impact of deficient rains in August is to be watched.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Inflows from DIIs to act as breather for Indian equities, say economists
Dhawal Ghanshyam Dhanani, Fund Manager, SAMCO Mutual Fund says, ‘’This is India’s fastest growth in a year which was driven by services sectors. The expansion in GDP can be linked to center and states’ upping their kitty on capital projects, heighted consumption demand and increased impetus within services sector. Resilient growth would attract stability in overseas flows along with cheer from domestic institutional investors and this would act as a breather to Indian equity markets for the time being".
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Crude prices warrant attention, says CEA
Rising crude prices may warrant attention; prolonged geo-political uncertainty, tighter financial conditions also pose risk to growth, says CEA Anatha Nageswaran.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Economists expect moderate growth in coming quarters
Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd, says, ‘’Though the GDP growth was lower than RBI expectations, India remains the fastest growing economy in the world at 7.8 per cent. We expect the growth to moderate further in the coming quarters due to the potential slowdown in capex because of the upcoming elections and the impact of El Nino on the monsoon and the slowdown in exports"
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: No threat to 5.9% fiscal deficit target, says CEA
At the moment, there is no threat to 5.9 per cent fiscal deficit target announced in Budget 2023-24, says Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran. "There is momentum in economic activity in general and it is not driven by price-related distortions. Therefore our projections still are very comfortably placed at 6.5 per cent for the current financial year," he said.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: India to rely on domestic demand, private consumption, say Economists
‘’Contraction in exports after eight quarters of double-digit growth is a concern. Going forward, a global slowdown will likely keep exports down and the government will be prudent in its spending to ensure it adheres to fiscal consolidation. Clearly, India will have to rely on domestic demand growth and private consumption and investment spending will be key to growth sustainability. The upcoming festive demand in the coming months stretching all the way till November and year-end upbeat will further help boost spending.
GVA growth of 7.8 per cent was supported by strong momentum in services of 10.3 per cent YoY backed by consumer spending channeled into services such as the real-estate and trade and transport sectors. This trend is likely to continue driving growth in the sector.
Manufacturing activities were sustained while construction activities revved up. This should drive private investment up.
A marginal slowdown of 3.5 per cent in agriculture was expected owing to special and temporal rains across the country. A slowing agriculture output could exacerbate food inflation further. This could weigh on consumer spending and investment, which have fared well this quarter,'' said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: ‘An August month for India’, say economists
Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India, says,''It was an August month for India. From the successful landing of Chandraayan-3 on the moon to the first gold medal at the World Athletics Championships 2023, the month ended with a big bang note on the economy. India grew 7.8 per cent in Q1 FY24, which is almost near to the expectations of the RBI’s estimate.
Growth was supported by a strong uptick in private consumer and investment spending, which grew by 6 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively. That bodes well as India needs to see a sustained rebound in these pillars to achieve the target growth rates. However, government spending and exports weighed on growth. This was expected. The government’s decision to contain its revenue expenses and the global slowdown are the reasons for their negative growth.''
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Focus on infra has benefitted economy, say analysts.
‘’The government not only invested a whopping $120 billion in infrastructure development in Q1 but has also been incentivising such investments. Indeed, the construction industry grew by an impressive 7.9 per cent in Q1. The focus on infrastructure has benefitted a broad swath of economic sectors. In addition, India’s service industry now makes up over 50 per cent of its economic production, with financial, real estate and professional services seeing a growth of 12.2 per cent in Q1,'' said Subho Moulik, CEO, Appreciate, a fintech platform for savings and investments
‘’This puts us in a better position compared to the many major economies facing a slowdown. This growth also reflects the blooming of the MSME sector and of our human capital. All in all, India’s performance is fully consonant with its growing economic might on the global stage,'' added Moulik.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Food inflation to subside with fresh stock
Food inflation likely to subside with arrival of fresh stock and govt measures; impact of deficient rains in August to be watched, said CEA
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Govt, RBI to maintain FY24 GDP target
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said that India’s quarterly GDP growth overpowers the GDP print of many other economies. The government and the RBI are comfortable in holding on to their FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Inflation no cause of concern, says CEA
No cause of concern on inflation. The government and are RBI taking measures to maintain adequate supply, said Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Sector-wise growth
Public admin and services growth stood at 7.9 per cent compared to 21.3 per cent in the year-ago period and 3.1 per cent in the preceding January-March quarter of fiscal 2023-24.
Mining growth stood at 5.8 per cent compared to 9.5 per cent in the year-ago period and 4.3 per cent in the January-March quarter of fiscal 2023-24.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: GVA at 7.8% compared to 11.9% in year-ago period
The economy's gross value added (GVA) came in at 7.8 per cent compared to 11.9 per cent in the year-ago period and 6.5 per cent in the preceding January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: GDP Print as per market estimates, say economists
‘’The outcome is as per market expectations. RBI has projected 8 per cent GDP for the last quarter but an economist poll expected 7.80 per cent only. The robust growth comes because of the speed up in govt capex followed by private capex. Govt has accelerated the capex plans before an election year,'' said Mukesh Kochar, National Head - Wealth, AUM Capital.
‘’The low commodity prices comparably have also contributed to revamping production and optimum utilisation of capacities by manufacturing companies. India's growth projection is the best in the world and the economy is well placed to grow consistently,'' added Kochar.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Q1 Sector Growth Figures
India’s April-June manufacturing sector growth at 4.7 per cent compared to 4.5 per cent in January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23 and 6.1 per cent in April-June 2022. India’s April-June construction sector growth at 7.9 per cent, compared to 10.4 per cent in January-March and 16 per cent in April-June 2022.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: What economists say on the GDP print
Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said, ‘’India’s GDP growth in Q1 FY 24 at 7.8 per cent was a tad below our expectations of 8 per cent. This once again makes India the fastest growing major economy, a position the country is likely to maintain for several years. Yet, we do not expect this pace to continue for the rest of the year and see the yearly growth at 6.2 per cent. But that too is a very good performance against the current global backdrop.''
‘’We expect consumption to remain resilient and net exports to improve during the year but still remain a drag. We expect slowdown in investment. But this is likely to recover in FY25. With strong growth and elevated inflation, the RBI would be hard pressed to tighten monetary policies. If retail inflation does remain high in August, we would expect a symbolic rate hike,'' he added.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Agriculture sector growth
India’s April-June agriculture sector growth increased to 3.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis, compared to a growth of 2.4 per cent growth in April-June 2022. The agricultural sector reported a 5.5 per cent growth in the preceding January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: India's GDP growth in the April-June quarter rose to a one-year high of 7.8 per cent
India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal (2023-2024), compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent in the previous January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23, according to official data shared by the National Statistical Office.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: July core sector output declines to 8%
India's infrastructure output expanded 8 per cent year-on-year in July, government data showed on Thursday. The July core sector output print came in lower than the 8.2 per cent mark registered in June.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: India's fiscal deficit at 6.06 lakh crore in April-July, 34% of FY24 target: CGA Data
The Centre's fiscal deficit in the first four months of 2023-24 touched 33.9 per cent of the full-year target, according to government data. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between expenditure and revenue -- was ₹6.06 lakh crore as of end-July, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Agriculture sector growth in previous quarter
In the previous January-March quarter of fiscal 2022-23, the agriculture sector witnessed a sharp up-tick in January-March, as its gross value added (GVA) growth jumped to 5.5 per cent from 4.7 per cent the previous quarter and 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2022.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: ICRA expects Q1 GDP growth at 8.5%
“We peg GDP growth in Q1FY24 at 8.5 per cent, exceeding the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) forecast of 8 per cent. However, we are circumspect that erratic rainfall, narrowing differentials with year-ago commodity prices, and a possible slowdown in the momentum of government capex as we approach the parliamentary elections, could dampen GDP growth in the second half of FY24 below the MPC’s forecasts. Overall, we maintain our FY24 GDP growth estimate at 6 per cent, lower than the MPC’s projection of 6.5 per cent for the fiscal," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head of Research and Outreach at ICRA.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Key indicators to watch
India's retail inflation data, unemployment rate, and interest rates by the central bank are some of the key indicators to watch ahead of the Q1 GDP data. Read full story here
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: IMF revised India's GDP projection to 6.1% for 2023
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.1 per cent for 2023, up from 5.9 per cent projected by the financial institution earlier this year as a result of stronger domestic investment. The IMF projected India's growth for 2024 at 6.3 per cent.
Earlier in June, Fitch Ratings raised its FY24 (2023-24) growth forecast for the Indian economy to 6.3 per cent, from 6 per cent predicted earlier.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: This is how other major economies fared in June quarter
After the US revised its Q2 GDP (gross domestic product) estimates on Wednesday (August 30), all eyes are on the India Q1 GDP numbers, scheduled to be released today at 5:30 pm.
The US economy expanded at a 2.1 per cent annual pace in the April-June quarter, compared to the initial estimate of 2.4 per cent, according to official revised estimates released on Wednesday.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty end lower, rupee weakens marginally ahead of GDP data
The Indian benchmark equity indices ended lower on Thursday ahead of the release of GDP data later today. The BSE Sensex ended 255.84 points, or 0.39%, lower at 64,831.41, while the Nifty declined 93.65 points, or 0.48%, to settle at 19,253.80.
Meanwhile, the rupee closed 6 paise lower against the US dollar at 82.79 per dollar compared to the previous close of 82.73.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: More inflation fighting steps underway; Indian economy better placed than China, West: FM
The government is taking enough measures to tame food inflation and more are underway, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured parliamentarians earlier this month. She said favourable economic factors give India optimism about the future while the West is confronted by twin challenges of high inflation and slow growth and China by a consumer demand slowdown.
In her speech on the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition, Sitharaman credited the Modi government's policies and transformation in governance for stable economic growth. Read here
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Fitch cuts China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.8%
Fitch lowered China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.8%, from 5.6%, as a boost from the removal of COVID-19 restrictions appears to be fading, it said in a statement.
The credit rating agency affirmed China's long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings at ‘A‘ with a stable outlook on Thursday supported by the country’s strong external finances.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty trade lower ahead of GDP data
The Indian benchmark equity indices traded lower ahead of the the release of the GDP data later today. The Sensex traded 250.76 points, or 0.39%, lower at 64,836.49, while the Nifty declined 91.30 points, or 0.47%, to 19,256.15.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: RBI’s GDP Projections
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) retailed real GDP growth projection for FY24 at 6.5%.
- GDP forecast for Q1FY24 at 8%
- GDP forecast for Q2FY24 at 6.5%
- GDP forecast for Q3FY24 at 6%
- GDP forecast for Q4FY24 at 5.7%
- GDP growth for Q1FY25 is projected at 6.6%
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Take a look at CareEdge Economy Outlook
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Fitch raises India's GDP forecast to 6.3% for FY24
Fitch Ratings in June raised its forecast for Indian economic growth to 6.3% for the current fiscal year 2023-24 from the 6% it had predicted previously. The growth forecast changed because of a stronger outturn in the first quarter and near-term momentum.
“India's economy has been showing broad-based strength - with GDP up by 6.1% year-on-year in 1Q23 (January-March) and auto sales, PMI surveys and credit growth remaining robust in recent months - and we have raised our forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (FY23-24) by 0.3 percentage points to 6.3%," the rating agency had said.
In FY23, the growth forecast compares with a 7.2% GDP expansion. The economy had a growth of 9.1% in FY22.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: This is how other major economies fared in June quarter
India remains one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world and is expected to witness healthy growth in the current financial year. Experts say while the latest growth prints of major economies of the world show some signs of pressure, the Indian economy is shining.
China’s gross domestic product from the April to June quarter came at 6.3 per cent YoY while the UK's GDP increased by 0.4 per cent YoY in the same period.
Japan's GDP expanded by 6 per cent YoY in the June quarter while Germany's adjusted GDP contracted by 0.2 per cent YoY in the same quarter.
The US economy grew by 2.1 per cent QoQ in the April-June quarter. Read full report here
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Morgan Stanley upgrades India to Overweight citing ‘less extreme’ valuations
Morgan Stanley, earlier this month, had upgraded India to ‘Overweight’ rating, while it downgraded China to ‘Equal-weight’ rating. Analysts at the brokerage house raised India’s rating saying relative valuations are “less extreme" than in October and the nation’s reform and macro-stability agenda supports a strong capex and profit outlook.
With GDP per capita only $2,500 per capita (vs. $12,700 for China) and positive demographic trends, strategists at Morgan Stanley believe India is arguably at the start of a long wave boom at the same time as China may be ending one.
The brokerage downgraded its rating on Chinese stocks saying investors should take profits and capitalize on a rally led by stimulus packages announced by the government.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Foreign flows to bolster BoP balance
High investment flows along with growing External Commercial Borrowing improved the overall Balance of Payments (BoP) situation. Favorable inflows bolstered foreign exchange reserves which are at comfortable levels above $600 billion. RBI estimates Balance of Payments to move from a surplus of $5.6 billion in Q4FY23 to $24.4 billion in Q1FY24.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Strong services demand, improved investment activity boosted growth in Q1: Aditi Nayar
In the first quarter, unseasonal heavy rains, lagged effect of the monetary tightening and weak external demand exerted a downward pressure on GDP growth, Icra's chief economist Aditi Nayar said.
Factors like a continued catch-up in services demand and improved investment activity, particularly a welcome front-loading in government capital expenditure, and sharply lower prices of various commodities which expanded margins in some sectors boosted growth in the June quarter, she added.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: GDP growth estimated at 8.5% in first quarter: Icra
India's economic growth will accelerate to 8.5% in the April-June period of the current fiscal from the 6.1% growth rate witnessed in the preceding January-March quarter, Icra Ratings said in a report. The rating agency attributed the faster growth to a supportive base and also a recovery in the services sector.
Though its estimate is higher than the RBI's forecast of 8.1%, Icra's chief economist Aditi Nayar said the second half of the fiscal is likely to witness headwinds, which will prove a dampener.
Nayar said erratic rainfall, narrowing differentials with year-ago commodity prices, and possible slowdown in momentum of government capex "as we approach the Parliamentary elections will limit the growth", and maintained her 6% real GDP growth estimate for FY24 which is lower than RBI’s 6.5%.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Unemployment rate falls in July
India's unemployment rate declined in July driven by increased demand for agricultural labour in rural areas, as per Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data. The total joblessness rate in India fell to 7.95% in July, from 8.45% in June, according to a report by Bloomberg News.
At the same time, the rural unemployment rate declined to 7.89 per cent, from 8.73 per cent in June. However, there was a slight uptick in the urban unemployment rate to 8.06 per cent from 7.87 per cent in the same period.
The report noted that due to the increased demand for laborers in farming activities, the rural joblessness rate typically declines in July. However, past data has shown that the unemployment rate tends to rise again in August after the sowing season is completed, added the report.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Q4FY23 GDP growth stood at 6.1%
India's GDP grew by 6.1% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, compared to a growth of 4.4% growth in the October-December quarter, according to official data by the National Statistical Office. The Street had expected a growth of 5.5% during the fourth quarter.
For the entire fiscal 2022-23, the economy's growth rate came in at 7.2%, higher than the RBI’s estimate of 7%. However, the pace of growth was slower as compared to 9.1% recorded in FY22.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: A look at interest rates
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained a status quo on policy rates and stance in its August bi-monthly meeting, in line with Street estimates. Announcing the RBI policy committee meeting outcome, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, “The monetary policy committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%."
Besides, the RBI MPC decided to keep the policy stance unchanged at ‘Withdrawal Of Accommodation’.
“The cumulative rate hike of 250 basis points undertaken by the MPC is working its way into the economy. Nonetheless, domestic economic activity is holding up well and is likely to retain its momentum, despite weak external demand. Considering this confluence of factors, the MPC decided to remain watchful and evaluate the emerging situation," he added.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Government’s capital expenditure in Q1 rises
In Q1FY24, Centre’s capex stood at ₹2.8 trillion after an annualized growth of 59.1%. State capex in Q1FY24 also remained strong at ₹1.04 trillion with an annualized growth of 75.6%.
Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand registered above 100% growth in state capex expenditure in Q1FY24. Capex growth remains weak in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh.
Conditions for availing tranches of the interest-free loan from Centre under ‘Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment’ have resulted in an uptick in state capex in Q1FY24.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: IIP growth moderated to 4.5% in Q1
Industrial output moderated to 4.5% in Q1FY24 as against 12.8% last year. Metals, pharma, motor vehicles, machinery, electrical equipment and non-metallic mineral items logged healthy growth.
Export-intensive industries such as textiles and wearing apparel continued to exhibit weakness amid subdued external demand conditions.
Going ahead, a durable domestic demand recovery remains crucial for industrial activity.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Care Ratings projects GDP growth at 7.7%
In Q1 FY24, growth is expected to inch up with improved momentum in manufacturing, improvement in construction activities, and an upbeat services sector, Care Ratings said in a report.
In FY24, we project growth to moderate to 6.5% from 7.2% in FY23. Base normalisation, weather-related risks to agriculture output, moderation in pent-up demand, and external sector weakness to weigh on growth prospects in FY24, it said.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Inflation remains high
India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation surged sharply to a 15-month high peak of 7.44% in July 2023, driven by high food and vegetable prices. July CPI print has breached the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time in five months.
The consumer food price index (CFPI) in July also surged to 11.51% - the highest level since October 2020.
On a month-on-month level, retail inflation came in at 4.81% in June after easing sharply to 4.25% in May-which was a 25-month low.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: Capex in Q1 surged; Central government spending 27.8% of budgeted
There has been a surge in capital expenditure in Q1, with the Central government spending 27.8% of budgeted, while states at 12.7% of budgeted. States like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh where elections are due have registered capital expenditure growth of up to 41%, said a note by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at SBI who has tracked 30 high frequency indicators to come at the estimate of 8.3%.
In Q1FY24, Manufacturing is sustained as reflected in better IIP, automobile sales, PMI data etc. Further, agriculture sales has been strong and power supply has been high. On the services side, passenger traffic picked up in Q4FY23 has sustained while Air cargo traffic increased, he added.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: IMF projects India’s growth at 6.1% in 2023
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth at 6.1% in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection, due to stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment.
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: GDP growth to be at 8.3%, higher than RBI's estimate: SBI Economists
India’s real GDP growth during the first quarter of FY24 is expected to be better than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate of 8%. Economists at SBI, the country's largest lender, have pegged India’s economic growth for the June 2023 quarter at 8.3%. They expect total FY24 growth to be higher at 6.5%.
“In Q1FY24, Manufacturing is sustained as reflected in better IIP, automobile sales, PMI data etc. Further, agriculture sales has been strong and power supply has been high. On the services side, passenger traffic picked up in Q4FY23 has sustained while Air cargo traffic increased," said a note by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at SBI who has tracked 30 high frequency indicators to come at the estimate of 8.3%. Read here
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: US Q2 GDP growth revised down to 2.1% annual rate
The US economy expanded at a 2.1% annual pace in the April-June quarter, compared to the initial estimate of 2.4%, according to official revised estimates released on Wednesday, August 30. The US government had previously estimated that the economy expanded at a 2.4% annual rate last quarter. Read here
India Q1 GDP Live Updates: RBI projects Q1 GDP growth at 8%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das-led rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), projected India's real GDP growth for FY 2023-24 at 6.5% with Q1 growth rate at 8%.
According to economists who participated in a poll conducted by news agency Reuters, GDP growth is expected to beat the January-March quarter's 6.1% rate, with forecasts ranging from 5.6% to 9.1% range.
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