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RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Check the date, time, and where to watch here
The MPC's primary responsibility is to determine the policy repo rate, aiming to achieve the targeted inflation rate while considering growth objectives.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to run from December 6 to December 8, 2023. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, will lead discussions for the committee and disclose its decision on the morning of December 8.
The MPC's primary responsibility is to determine the policy repo rate, aiming to achieve the targeted inflation rate while considering growth objectives.
The RBI MPC consists of six members – both external and RBI officials. Alongside Governor Das, RBI officials are Rajiv Ranjan, serving as Executive Director, and Michael Debabrata Patra, as the Deputy Governor. While Shashanka Bhide, Ashima Goyal, and Jayanth R Varma are the external members.
RBI MPC – Check date, time, schedule, where to watch:
RBI MPC Meeting Date: The three-day meeting of the RBI's rate-setting panel started on Wednesday, December 6 4 and the outcome is due on Friday, December 8.
RBI MPC Meeting Timing: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will unveil the MPC decision around 10 am on Friday (December 8).
RBI MPC Meeting Schedule: After the MPC decision which starts around 10 am, RBI Governor Das will address a post-policy press conference at noon on December 8.
RBI MPC Meeting Live Streaming Link: The central bank will live stream the RBI Governor's policy statement on RBI's YouTube channel or RBI's official X (formerly Twitter) handle.
What can be expected?
Experts anticipate that the central bank will likely keep the short-term interest rate unchanged in its upcoming MPC review this week. This expectation stems from India's inflation remaining within a comfortable range and the economy showing accelerated growth.
The RBI has maintained the benchmark policy rate (repo) at the same level for the past four bi-monthly monetary policies. The last adjustment to the repo rate was an increase in February 2023, setting it at 6.5 percent. This adjustment concluded a series of interest rate hikes initiated in May 2022 due to the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent disruptions in the global supply chain, which led to elevated inflation within the country.
India continues to hold its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy. The GDP expanded at a rate of 7.6 percent in the July-September quarter, surpassing expectations. This growth was fueled by increased government spending and advancements in the manufacturing sector.
What do experts say?
Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, at Barclays, thinks that with strong growth momentum, core inflation declining, and the global backdrop turning more benign, the RBI's policy optionality is widening. "Still, we expect the bank to stay cautious, taking macroprudential steps to curb lending, while keeping an eye on supply shocks and potential second-order inflationary effects," he said.
"In its 8 December meeting, we expect the MPC to remain on a cautious hold and keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent. The central bank may flag risks to inflation from a potential recurrence of food price shocks and its impact on inflation expectations, even as it draws comfort from the moderation in core inflation," Bajoria added.
Also Read: RBI to remain cautious on inflation, keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in December, says Barclays
He also noted that the MPC is likely to flag a moderation in the pace of monetary transmission, as spreads of lending rates over the repo rate have narrowed in the past few months. "Accordingly, we expect the committee to maintain the monetary policy stance pointed towards a "withdrawal of accommodation" despite deficit liquidity conditions. We think the RBI may raise its annual growth forecast modestly, but is likely to keep its inflation forecasts unchanged, citing uncertainty around the near-term outlook due to possible changes in domestic food and international energy prices," he said.
Further, Prasenjit Basu, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities believes that with CPI inflation moderating to 4.87 percent year-on-year (YoY) in October 2023 and core CPI inflation to 4.5 percent YoY, the RBI is likely to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at its next MPC meeting. "The prospect of further easing in inflationary pressure is likely to result in the MPC moving to a neutral policy stance from the previous stance of “withdrawal of accommodation"," he added.
While Parijat Agrawal, Head – Fixed Income at Union Asset Management Company said, "We are going into the policy with an improved domestic macro environment and benign external factors. Q2FY24 GDP surprised on the upside, and therefore we expect RBI to revise the projections for the full year. The US 10-year has corrected meaningfully from the peak in line with the incoming data and the central bank narrative. Concerns around oil prices have reduced and have been close to around $80 for a few weeks now.'
"Although the MPC will emphasise bringing inflation to the 4 percent target, we expect the MPC to remain on pause on rates and stance. Markets will keenly look for guidance on systemic liquidity and open market operations (OMO). We may also hear a bit more about the retail/unsecured credit environment," Agarwal added.
PwC India's Partner, Economic Advisory Services Ranen Banerjee feels that two major factors have changed since the last MPC meeting – inflation and growth prints. "The inflation has moderated especially the core inflation but it is still above the 4 percent targeted inflation rate though well within the plus-minus 2 percent range. The surprising element has been the Q2 GDP print. The growth numbers will give comfort to the MPC and a continued pause becomes a certainty in this meeting," he noted
"The “withdrawal of accommodation" stance could have a difference of opinion within the committee but it is likely to be retained. In the event, we have a strong showing of the GDP in Q3 and the core inflation hits 4 percent, we should not be ruled out a rate cut in late Q4 of FY23-24 or early Q1 of FY24-25 given the impending national elections and the US Fed also sending signals of possible rate cuts," Banerjee feels.
And Shanti Ekambaram, whole-time director at Kotak Mahindra Bank believes the RBI is likely to hold the key interest rates and continue with its emphasis on containing inflation. "Macroeconomic indicators remain healthy, with GDP growing at 7.6 percent in Q2, exceeding expectations. With economic growth continuing to be strong, the central bank will focus mainly on inflation, liquidity, and currency management. Given the global economic trends and geopolitical situation, expect RBI to keep its key rates and stance unchanged," he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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First Published:5 Dec 2023, 11:57 AM IST
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