The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of FY24 decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The MPC voted 5 members to 1 to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation. The RBI also retained FY24 GDP growth forecast at 6.5%, while expects FY24 CPI inflation to be at 5.1%.
Yes Securities reaction on RBI policy
Amar Ambani, Head Institutional Equities, Yes Securities said:
The decision on the stance was not unanimous, with one member dissenting on the same. We can attribute the dissent to the fact that, although liquidity conditions have improved lately due to higher government spending and gradual withdrawal of Rs2,000 denomination notes, this is a rapidly changing variable and the surplus in the banking system is expected to wane, on account of advance tax outflows and growing credit demand. Nevertheless, RBI will manage liquidity in a calibrated manner, characterised by Variable Repo and Reverse Repo operations, whenever the need arises.
On projections, RBI sees FY24 GDP growing at 6.5% (unchanged), while headline inflation is seen averaging 5.1%, a tad lower than the earlier estimate of 5.2%. Although the inflation outlook has turned favourable (real rates are projected to stay positive), RBI alluded that the inflation level within the tolerance band does not yet warrant a rate cut. We believe inflation is on a sustained decline with lag impact of RBI rate hikes and prices of commodities declining drastically. Our reading is that disrupted supply across the world is back on stream and therefore fall in price of coal, natural gas, oil, steel, wheat, lumber, palm oil, milk etc are sustainable. RBI is bound to change stance in time to come.’
For how long RBI may continue to hold repo rate at 6.5%?
According to Care Edge, while the RBI decided to keep the policy rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, it has continued to emphasize on bringing the retail inflation closer to the target of 4%. Amid a volatile global economic scenario and lingering risks to domestic inflation, it is prudent that the RBI has followed a wait-and-watch strategy. With concerns on the growth front abating and CPI inflation likely to remain above the 4% target, we expect a status quo on the policy rates in 2023.
RBI's policy impact on gold loans:
George Alexander Muthoot, MD, Muthoot Finance said:
We welcome the RBI proposal of widening the Scope of Prudential Framework for Stressed Assets to all regulated entities and streamline the current prudential norms regarding the restructuring of borrower accounts impacted by natural disasters.
Recently, the RBI committee led by B.P. Kanungo proposed guidelines on gold loan recovery in case of borrower’s death which we believe is a much-needed framework for uniformity and clarity in the industry, ensuring a fair and transparent process that protects both the interests of customers and the integrity of the lending system, these steps towards customer service standards will enhance confidence in the gold loan sector, establishing a reliable and customer-centric approach that safeguards the trust of our stakeholders.
When will RBI alter its policy stance?
On Thursday, RBI yet again kept its policy stance to "withdrawal of accommodation" which is a clear indication inflationary pressure still pertains into the system.
However, RBI has revised its inflation target ahead.
Prasenjit Basu – Chief Economist, ICICI Securities said:
No surprise that the MPC has left interest rates unchanged. We expect CPI inflation to remain below 5% for several months, and the “withdrawal of accommodation" stance to be altered by August. The next policy move is likely to be a rate cut once it’s clear that the inflation fight has been won decisively
Inflation still remains a concern
Murali Ramakrishnan MD & CEO of South Indian Bank said:
The RBI deserves praise for its efforts in controlling inflation by prudently calibrating the policy repo rate through successive quarters. MPC’s well-timed rate hikes earlier have allowed it the leeway to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the current cycle.
Inflation, however, still remains a concern and is expected to remain above targeted levels right through FY2023-24 as per RBI’s forecasts. Accordingly, despite the pause in rate hikes, the MPC is exercising tight control over monetary conditions by continuing its stance of withdrawal of accommodation.
Markets end in red despite in-line RBI policy outcomes
Indian market ended in red on Thursday despite in-line monetary policy outcomes by RBI. Midcap and small-cap retreated after their stellar buying spree in previous sessions. Auto and banking stocks were top laggards.
Sensex ended at 62,848.64 down by 294.32 points or 0.47%. While Nifty 50 closed at 18,634.55, lower by 91.85 points or 0.49%. Bank Nifty shed over 280 points, while BANKEX declined over 402 points.
Rupee traded in muted range
Indian rupee dropped by 5 paise to end at 82.57 against US dollar after RBI's status quo on repo rate.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research analyst at LKP Securities said:
Rupee traded in muted range as RBI has maintained its key interest rates unchanged in today's policy. The central bank highlighted that inflation levels remain elevated, signaling concerns about price pressures in the economy. Thus rupee appreciation halted as rupee took resistance before 82.50. The RBI expressed its commitment to support growth while keeping inflation under control. But rupee kept range muted as dollar index was weak but capital market faced weakness which kept added pressure on rupee, keeping rupee in small range between 82.52-82.63. All eyes are now on the US Fed's interest rate decision next week. Till then range can be seen at 82.40-82.75.
RBI continues to adopt a liberal approach
Atul Kumar Goel, MD and CEO of Punjab National Bank (PNB):
RBI continues to adopt a liberal approach towards BBPS by streamlining its processes to bring more competence and boost involvement. Further, action on internationalizing RuPay Debit Cards and Pre paid Cards points to RBI’s earnest approach on broad-basing the scope of the cards and increasing comfort for Indians travelling abroad.
Overall it seems to be an action oriented policy with evenly balanced approach. However, in view of the dynamic world economic scenario, we anticipate that RBI will remain watchful.
Sensex, Nifty trade lower dragged by IT, Auto stocks
The Indian equity market erased early gains to trade lower Thursday afternoon after the Reserve Bank of India delivered a ‘hawkish pause’ in its bi-monthly monetary policy review. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, but the policy statement by Governor Shaktikanta Das signaled that one should not expect a rate cut soon, flagging inflation concerns.
The Sensex declined 170.44 points, or 0.27%, to 62,972.52, while the Nifty traded 63.10 points, or 0.34%, lower at 18,663.30.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Do not expect rate cut through FY24, says Indranil Pan of Yes Bank
There was nothing in the policy that was not expected by the market, rates and the stance both were unchanged. However, the communication, in my opinion, was slightly on the hawkish side with respect to inflation.
Even as there was a 10 bps reduction in the inflation forecast for FY24, the governor was extremely pointed in highlighting that the MPC is now focused on getting inflation down to the 4% central line, rather than being comfortable with the fact that headline inflation is currently within the tolerance band and is likely to remain so for the rest of FY24.
The governor also pointed out that in H2FY24, the inflation is expected to be higher, averaging at around 5.3%, and a much closer look on the inflation at that point is warranted as by then any negative impact from the El Nino will be clear. Currently, the RBI has assumed a normal monsoon in the inflation projections.
The communication in this policy settles the fact that one should not expect any reduction in the policy rate soon, may be even through the rest of FY24, says Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, Yes Bank.
RBI Monetary Policy | Repo rate unchanged, cut in CPI forecast: Key highlights
- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%.
- Standing Deposit Facility Rate remains at 6.25%. Marginal Standing Facility Rate and Bank Rate are unchanged at 6.75%.
- All the members of the MPC unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the second time. The MPC voted 5 members to 1 to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation.
-RBI projected CPI inflation for FY24 at 5.1%. Breaking down inflation projections every quarter, RBI predicted inflation at 4.6% for Q1FY24, 5.2% at Q2FY24, 5.4% at Q3FY24, and 5.2% at Q4FY24.
- FY24 GDP growth rate forecast retained at 6.5%. On a quarterly basis, the GDP growth rate projected at 8% in Q1FY24, 6.5% in Q2FY24, 6% in Q3FY24, and 5.7% in Q4FY24.
- Reserve Bank will remain nimble in liquidity management, RBI to ensure orderly completion of govt. Market borrowing program in the stipulated time.
-RBI also allowed banks to issue Rupay prepaid forex cards. With this, the RBI also announced to expand the scope of the e-rupee voucher. To let this happen, non-bank companies would be able to issue such instruments on their own.
RBI Monetary Policy | MPC’s decision relief for MSME borrowers, says Rajesh Sharma of Capri Global Capital
.Today’s announcements by RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged after a total 250 bps increment since May 2022 is an encouraging sign to keep the positive sentiment of borrowers and would give a big boost to demand for credit appetite. It will help to stabilize the interest rate cycle. There will be a collective sigh of relief from homeowners since they have been feeling the strain of increased interest rates and longer loan terms.
The pause in the rate cycle will also aid relief for MSME borrowers who are yet to recover from the pandemic stress and higher cost of borrowing. We believe RBI is evaluating trends in inflation and the movement of high-frequency indicators and global developments like a hawk to exercise a measured approach during this period in order to pave the way for sustainable economic growth and stability in the long run, says Rajesh Sharma, MD, Capri Global Capital.
RBI Monetary Policy | Home loan interest rates to remain steady, says Dhruv Agarwala
In line with industry expectations, the RBI has maintained a status quo on its benchmark lending rate. With this, the repo rate will be maintained at 6.5%. This augurs particularly well for the real estate sector in the country. Amid all growth indicators moving in the right direction, the consumer spirit would get a renewed boost from the RBI move, which means home loan interest rates would remain at the current level, said Dhruv Agarwala, Group CEO, Housing.com, PropTiger.com & Makaan.com
RBI Monetary Policy | Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings
While the RBI decided to keep the policy rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, it has continued to emphasize on bringing the retail inflation closer to the target of 4%. Amid a volatile global economic scenario and lingering risks to domestic inflation, it is prudent that the RBI has followed a wait-and-watch strategy.
While RBI has marginally lowered the CPI inflation projection for FY24 to 5.1%, it has emphasized on the inflationary risks. The policy stance on ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ is reflective of RBI’s guarded approach towards inflation as it reiterated that inflation remains above target and remaining within the tolerance band is not enough.
Going ahead, with the domestic growth holding up well, we have raised our GDP growth projection to 6.5% for FY24 (from previous projection of 6.1%). With concerns on growth front abating and CPI inflation likely to remain above the 4% target, we expect a status quo on the policy rates in 2023.
Exchanging ₹2,000 notes: 'No panic, no rush, just avoid...,' says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
During the RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday (8 June), Governor Shaktikanta Das appealed to citizens not to wait for the September 30th deadline for exchanging/ depositing ₹2,000 currency notes and added not to panic either. "Please avoid the last-minute rush in exchanging or depositing ₹2,000 notes. There is no shortfall in currency, we have ample notes for exchange. Don't panic, no rush, but don't keep it for the last days of September," RBI governor Das said. Read full report here
RBI Monetary Policy | Rupa Rege Nitsure, Group Chief Economist, L&T Finance
By holding the rates & policy stance, the RBI has shown its firm commitment to achieving the point target of inflation without compromising financial stability. In fact, it appears to be more concerned about inflationary risks than growth risks during the second half of FY24. Additional measures like liberalising the norms for borrowings in Call & Notice Money markets by banks and rationalisation of prudential norms on restructuring caused by Natural calamities for all regulated entities are timely and will provide better flexibility to lenders.
RBI monetary policy: How ₹2000 notes withdrawal helped RBI to maintain status quo on interest rate
Experts believe that surplus liquidity in the banking and Indian economy has become possible after withdrawal of ₹2000 notes. However, they maintained that better-than-expected GDP of India, strong GST collection, inflation at lower levels of the targeted 2-6 per cent inflation, etc. have also played its role in this RBI monetary policy meeting decision to keep repo rate unchanged. Read full report here
RBI Monetary Policy | Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank
The RBI successfully delivered a hawkish pause in todays’ policy announcement keeping the policy rate unchanged at 6.5% while keeping the door open for further rate action. The central bank kept its stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation", justifying it by still looming inflationary risks.
Growth was surprisingly revised upwards to 6.5% for FY24 while inflation forecast for Q4 FY24 was revised down – most likely on account of base effects. We expect that growth could be lower at 6% this fiscal while there are upside risks to the RBI’s inflation forecast, especially given the impending risks around oil prices and the performance of monsoons.
Going forward, the RBI could go for “the higher for longer" narrative – staying on an extended pause in FY24 while tightening liquidity conditions. Therefore, short-term rates could remain under pressure over the coming months. For the 10-year yield we could see some pressure return once the governments’ borrowing program kicks in and a range of 7.20-7.30% is likely in the first quarter.
RBI Monetary Policy: Shrinkage in surplus liquidity between April and May
The average daily absorptions under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) between April and May, which were ₹1.7 lakh crore, showed less surplus liquidity than the ₹2.9 lakh crore throughout the entire fiscal year 2022–23. Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), noted that among other factors, the maturing of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) contributed to the reduction in excess liquidity during the months of April and May. Read here
RBI Monetary Policy | Achala Jethmalani, Economist, RBL Bank
In a no surprise move, monetary policy maintained a status-quo on policy rates and stance. It remains in a ‘wait & watch’ mode and vigilant on inflation trajectory. We expect a pause on policy rates through CY2023 while modulating system liquidity. The window for policy pivot to rate cuts could open-up in 1H CY2024, if inflation trajectory warrants given that growth remains robust.
RBI Monetary Policy | Rate cut this calendar year seems unlikely, says Dhiraj Relli of HDFC Securities
MPC members were in a sweet spot in the backdrop of higher than expected GDP numbers and moderating headline and core inflation print. India’s economic activity has continued to demonstrate resilience. RBI retained its GDP forecast at 6.5% in FY24.
Given the uncertainties around the impact of El-Nino conditions leading to sub-par monsoon in 2023, RBI remained cautious and revised the inflation projection by only 10bps to 5.1% for FY24. RBI Governor stressed on moving towards the primary target of 4% inflation. In this backdrop, expectation of rate cut in this calendar year seems to be faded. We expect the first rate cut perhaps in Feb 2024, said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities.
RBI Monetary Policy | Shanti Ekambaram, Whole-time Director, Kotak Mahindra Bank
The need to bring down inflation to the targeted 4% level was emphasized and risks of inflation upside from Monsoons, geopolitical tensions, global financial market volatility and global growth deceleration were highlighted in the RBI policy.
In all the RBI reiterated its “watchful stance" to emerging risks and a commitment to maintain price stability and providing ample liquidity for economic growth. All this in the backdrop of strong economic growth and lower inflation. Rates are likely to be pause for long unless there is any dramatic shift in inflation, growth or global volatility.
RBI Monetary Policy | Marzban Irani, CIO - Debt , LIC Mutual Fund
We reiterate our views that investors should go as long as possible depending on risk appetite. Existing carry despite recent fall in yield continue to remain attractive and should not be missed out. Medium to Long Duration funds may be a preferred investment option for investors.
RBI Monetary Policy | Part of the MSP hike built into inflation projections
The MSP hikes are about 7-8%. This will have an impact of 10-12 basis points over and above our inflation projections. A part of the MSP hike is built into our projections, said RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra.
RBI Monetary Policy | It is a pause, not pivot: RBI Governor
It is a pause in this meeting, not a pivot. RBI’s future action will depend on evolving situation. Our efforts will be to align our actions to reach the 4% inflation target.
RBI’s actions are primarily determined by domestic factors. We do not look at actions of other central banks to determine our action: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Not thought of issuing norms on financial influencers
The RBI has not thought of issuing norms about financial influencers, said Governor Shaktikanta Das adding that the SEBI was dealing with that.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | No specific date for launch of CBDC for public: RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar
RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said that there was no specific date for the launch of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to the public at large. Its launch will be gradual and calibrated. RBI hopes to have 1 million customers by June end and it is working on making the CBDC interoperable with UPI QR codes, he added.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Around 50% or ₹1.8 lakh crore worth ₹2,000 banknotes have come back: RBI Governor
Around 50% of the ₹2,000 currency banknotes in circulation have come back in the banks, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. He said that so far ₹1.8 lakh crore worth ₹2,000 banknotes have come back after the central bank took announced to take these out of circulation. This is 50% of the total ₹3.62 lakh crore-worth notes in circulation as of March 31.
Das said 85% of ₹2,000 currency notes are coming back as deposit into bank accounts, in line with expectations.
RBI Monetary Policy | Sensex, Nifty give up gains, trade flat after RBI policy
The Indian benchmark equity market gave up early gains to trade flat after the RBI announced its monetary policy for June. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of FY24 decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The focus remains on withdrawal of accommodation.
The Sensex was trading at 63,053.23, down 89.73 points, or 0.14%, while the Nifty traded 36.80 points, or 0.2%, lower at 18,689.6.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Watch RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ post-policy address to media live
Watch RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ address to media after the announcement of June monetary policy here:
RBI Monetary Policy | Suresh Khatanhar, Deputy Managing Director, IDBI Bank
With inflation continuing to slide, the MPC's decision to maintain a status quo on repo rates is on expected lines. Though the Indian economy continues to remain fairly resilient, the pause in the rate hike cycle augurs well as it would further help in arresting inflation, boosting investment and consumption sentiments. The lowering of the inflation projection for FY24 to 5.1% signals towards a higher GDP growth and credit offtake can be expected to be higher. However, RBIs readiness in taking quick decisions in case of any divergence from present expectations on the inflationary front calls for cautionary optimism across the board.
RBI Monetary Policy | Governor announces eight additional measures across segments
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das announced eight additional measures to improve and amend the rules of various segments. These measures include expanding the scope and reach of e-RUPI vouchers and permitting the issuance of RuPay Prepaid Forex cards by banks to expand payment options for Indians travelling abroad. The measure announced are:
- SCBs can set their own limits for borrowing in Call and Notice Money Markets
- Widening of the scope of the Framework for the Resolution of Stressed Assets:
- Default loss guarantee arrangement in digital lending
- Timelines for achieving priority sector lending targets by UCBs extended
- Rationalisation of licensing framework
- Expanding the scope and reach of e-RUPI vouchers
- Streamlining the Bharat Bill Payment System
- Permit issuance of RuPay Prepaid Forex cards by banks
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
Even though the MPC’s rate decision and stance have come on expected lines as pause and withdrawal of accommodation respectively, the Governor’s commentary can be interpreted as positive. The central bank’s projection of FY24 CPI inflation has come at 5.1%, lower than 5.2% projected in the previous meeting. This indicates that the MPC has come to the end of this rate hiking cycle. If the monsoon is normal and the global scenario is favourable, the MPC may think about a rate cut by end CY 2023 or early 2024. From the stock market perspective, this is positive.
The Governor’s remark that “India’s economic and financial sector remains resilient amidst global turmoil" is a reflection of India’s strong and improving fundamentals.
RBI Monetary Policy: Shaktikanta Das assures to keep 'close vigil' on inflation
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said that India's headline inflation is likely to be shaped by "food price dynamics". During the monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India Governor maintained the repo rate at 6.5% due to ease in inflation in the country. The RBI had hiked the repo rate by 250 basis points since May last year. Read here
Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS
The RBI’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged versus a consensus expectation of a 25 bps rate hike was surprising and hints at the regulator's focus on maintaining growth. While the pause is purely for this policy, the regulator has not ruled out any further rate hikes, if need be, and would be largely data-driven. The Indian banking sector remains healthy, with due credit to the regulator’s stringent regulations. We expect the systemic credit growth to remain buoyant for the Mar’23 quarter. However, management commentaries on growth momentum sustenance going into FY24 would be crucial. While banks have seen a sharp NIM expansion so far, headwinds on margins will surface as banks step into FY24.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Vikas Garg – Head of Fixed Income, Invesco Mutual Fund.
Against the backdrop of challenging global monetary policy outlook, MPC delivers second consecutive pause on policy rate indicating increasing comfort on external resilience as well as domestic growth - inflation dynamics. Stance still maintained as “withdrawal of accommodation" to keep flexibility against any negative surprises on global front and monsoon; only to be changed to Neutral later. Overall, a pause as expected with lesser likelihood of further rate hikes. Nonetheless, a long wait for the rate cut cycle as inflation remains higher than the 4% target.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Interest rate pause to be supportive of housing demand: Knight Frank India
We believe that this status quo will facilitate positive decision-making for home buyers. The decision to pause is well justified, as the inflation outlook for FY24 is within the central bank's tolerance range.
However, the momentum in key macro-indicators related to growth is uneven. Therefore, maintaining the policy rates unchanged for a while will support consumer demand amid diminishing inflation, thereby fostering economic growth.
Regarding the real estate sector, the trajectory of India's economic growth will be beneficial. Despite a significant increase in interest rates, the sector has been performing well. Real estate loan demand from both housing and commercial segments has remained strong, despite a 150 bps rise in the base lending rate (MCLR) over the past year. However, we remain cautious about the industry, as the complete transmission of the repo rate hikes to lending rates is yet to be observed, said Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Lincoln Bennet Rodrigues, Chairman & Founder, The Bennet and Bernard Company
In the residential real estate segment, buyer sentiment has continued to be robust and this has resulted in home sales showing an appreciable rate of growth. Hence, we welcome this move by RBI as it helps in holding the interest rates and sustaining the growth momentum in the real estate sector. While the rising interest rates in the recent past have certainly impacted the sales of rate-sensitive segments of affordable and mid segment housing, but it did not have any impact on luxury housing.
A reduction in the key rates going forward would be widely celebrated as low interest rates have been a crucial factor in the revival of overall real estate demand and improvement in the liquidity situation which is vital for the sector.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | After RBI maintains status quo, all eyes on Monsoon now: Reliance Securities
The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged as was widely expected. It sounded upbeat on rural recovery with urban demand also resilient. Headline inflation still continues to be above target. We believe that the market will watch out for Monsoon for the next 1-2 months to decide the direction ahead. Monsoon is already delayed a bit making investors cautious, while latest policy provides some relief, said Mitul Shah, Head of Research, Reliance Securities
RBI Monetary Policy key highlights: Central bank holds repo rate, maintains policy stance and more..
The MPC expressed its concern about sticky inflation which can become a cause of worry due to uncertain monsoon and volatility in international commodity prices and global financial markets. RBI projected CPI inflation for FY24 at 5.1 per cent. The GDP growth rate was predicted at 6.5% for FY24. Other than this, the RBI allowed banks to issue Rupay prepaid forex cards and expand the opportunities of e-rupee vouchers for non-banking firms. The minutes of the MPC will be released on June 22.
Read key highlights from RBI Policy here
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Bhavik Thakkar CEO Abans Investment Manager
As expected, the RBI kept rates unchanged for the second time in a row. This act shifts bias to see rate reduction in future. The impact of monsoon on inflation will be a key determinant of future interest rates expectations apart from what central bankers do globally. RBI governor reiterated intent of targeting MPC’s mandate of 4% inflation instead of 4-6% range clearly indicates that rate reduction by RBI will start once it sees clear path to 4% inflation. This means that rate reduction cycle may start later than expected may be in Q4 FY24 or Q1 FY25.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Divam Sharma, founder, and CEO of Green Portfolio - PMS on RBI Policy
The announcement is in line with the market expectations. The governor continues to be vigilant on inflation while targeting growth. Metrics of core inflation expectations, trade deficit, the output of core industries, and a stronger rural economy outlook should support domestic consumption, credit growth, and private capex going forward.
All eyes are now on the upcoming US Fed policy meeting where there is a 67% probability of a pause. This announcement should trigger more FPI flows into Indian equities.
We anticipate a cut in repo rates over the coming months, which shall trigger a private capex demand. We like companies in auto, capital goods, steel, and cement.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | KV Srinivasan, Executive Director and CEO, Profectus Capital on RBI Policy
The RBI holding repo rates is a clear signal for a pick up in growth with the risk of inflation having come down. The unexpectedly sharp GDP growth in Q4 and the interest rate stability is a call for the capex cycle to pick up. MSMEs especially can look at the medium term with confidence and start investing in expanding and modernising their businesses. However, external risks continue to remain.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Akshar Shah, founder, Fixed Invest
Inflation easing in April and RBI stance is indicative of the fact that perhaps we have reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. With more liquidity in the banking system after withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes and indications of easing inflation banks may start reducing FD rates over the next few months. It’s perhaps one last good time for investors to lock in high, safe returns in FDs.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Net FPI inflows stand at USD 8.4 billion during current financial year, says Shaktikanta Das
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das said that the net Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows stand at USD 8.4 billion during the current financial year upto June 6 as against net outflows in the proceeding two years where USD 14.1 billion in 2021-22 and 5.9 billion in 2022-23.
During a briefing, Das said, "On Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) have seen a significant portfolio this year since April 2023-24, led by equity flows. The net FPI inflows stand at USD 8.4 billion during the current financial year up to June 6 as against net outflows in the proceeding two years were USD 14.1 billion in 2021-22 and 5.9 billion in 2022-23. (Read More)
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Ritika Chhabra, Quant Macro Strategist – Prabhudas Lilladher PMS
There were no surprises on policy front as we were expecting RBI to hold the rates at 6.5%. The central bank kept its stance unchanged to 'withdrawal of accommodation' as it maintains its focus on inflation, citing delay in monsoon, El nino impact and geopolitical uncertainties as upside risks to inflation. We expect FY24 inflation at 4.9% slightly lower than RBI's estimate of 5.1%, as base effect turns favorable and imported inflation eases.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers
Today's policy rate pause by the RBI was anticipated. In the wake of a greater-than-anticipated decline in inflation in the recent past, it was anticipated that the monetary policy would shift from a liquidity withdrawal to a neutral stance. However, the MPC has decided to maintain the current stance by a majority vote. This is due to the fact that the demonetization of Rs. 2,000 banknotes has significantly contributed to the recent increase in liquidity. In addition, RBI's projections indicate that RBI's inflation target of 4% will be exceeded each month of the current fiscal year.
While the continuation of the RBI's policy stance is somewhat disappointing, the central bank's cautious approach in light of upside risks, such as the potential impact of El Nino on India's monsoon and the continuation of monetary tightening by the world's major central banks, appears justified and well-articulated. Therefore, we anticipate that the monetary policy announcement will have no effect on the financial markets.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Need to maintain Arjuna’s eye on inflation: RBI Governor
Given the uncertainties, we need to maintain Arjuna’s eye1 on the evolving inflation scenario. Let me re-emphasise that headline inflation still remains above the target and being within the tolerance band is not enough. Our goal is to achieve the target of 4.0 per cent, going forward. As Mahatma Gandhi had said “The ideal must not be lowered." The continuation of the stance of withdrawal of accommodation should be seen from this perspective.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Monetary policy actions yielding desired results: RBI Governor
Subsequent incoming data suggest that while risks to near-term inflation have moderated somewhat, pressure remains during the second half of the year which needs to be watched and addressed at the appropriate time. According to our survey, inflation expectations of households for three months to one year ahead horizon have moderated by 60 to 70 basis points since September 2022. This would indicate that anchoring of expectations is underway and that our monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. This also provides us the space to keep the policy rate unchanged in this meeting of the MPC.
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Domestic demand conditions remain supportive of growth: RBI Governor
Domestic demand conditions remain supportive of growth on the back of improving household consumption and investment activity. Urban demand remains resilient, with indicators such as passenger vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic, and credit cards outstanding posting double-digit expansion on a year-on-year basis in April. Rural demand is also on a revival path – motorcycle and three-wheeler sales increased at a robust pace (y-o-y) in April, while tractor sales remained subdued, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
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