RBI Monetary Policy Highlights: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%; raises FY25 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%

RBI MPC Meeting Highlights: Here are the key takeaways of the RBI Policy today:

Policy Measures:

• Repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
• Policy stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ maintained 
• MPC members voted by 4:2 majority to maintain status quo
• FY25 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.2%. The quarterly projections are - Q1 at 7.3%; Q2 at 7.2%; Q3 at 7.3% and Q4 at 7.2%.
• CPI inflation estimates for FY25 retained at 4.5%. Detailed inflation forecast: Q1 at 4.9%; Q2 at 3.8%; Q3 at 4.6% and Q4 at 4.5% 

Developmental and Regulatory Policies:

• Review of limit of Bulk Deposits for Scheduled Commercial Banks, Small Finance Banks and Local Area Banks
• Rationalisation of Export and Import regulations under Foreign Exchange Management Act
• Setting up a Digital Payments Intelligence Platform
• Inclusion of recurring payments for Fastag, National Common Mobility Card (NCMC), etc. with auto-replenishment facility under the e-mandate framework
• Introducing auto-replenishment of UPI Lite wallet - Inclusion under the e-mandate framework
• Launch of third edition of RBI Hackathon HARBINGER 2024 – Innovation for Transformation

RBI MPC Meeting Live: We maintain that the RBI will not precede the Fed in any policy reversal in CY24 and policy management will have to stay vigilant amid the fluidity of global narratives. Anchor rates like the RBI policy rate change will likely be a story from 1QCY25, assuming Fed cuts shift to next year. However, other factors like liquidity could keep RBI on tenterhooks on the policy management front, said Madhavi Arora, Lead – Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

We continue to see FY25E GDP ease sharply to 6.5%, with a normalizing GDP-GVA wedge, slowing manufacturing, and a not-too-exciting consumption story. We think the growth outcome will likely see cyclical headwinds in the form of: 1) restrictive net fiscal impulse, 2) fading commodities-led terms-of-trade benefits, 3) tighter lending standards, 4) weaker exports, and 5) mean reversion of deflator-related growth boost, she added.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The MPC meeting outcome was cheered by the equity market, but the debt market didn’t react much to the MPC meeting announcement. The market would perhaps be more keen to look for the Union Budget announcement on the government's fiscal roadmap going forward. Insurance companies with a greater focus on fixed-income portfolios in their life funds would not have been significantly impacted by this MPC decision. The equity portfolio of the insurance companies has made some positive MTM gains, though, said Ajit Banerjee, CIO - Shriram Life Insurance Company.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The RBI’s focus on building a secure financial system is commendable. Last week, RBI published its Annual Report which highlighted a rise in digital payment frauds. This surge emphasizes the urgency of tackling financial scams. Proactively, the RBI is working towards fortifying digital trust within the financial ecosystem, said Ankit Ratan, Co-founder & CEO, Signzy.

In a move to combat the growing threat of digital payment fraud, the RBI announced the establishment of a Digital Payments Intelligence Platform during today's MPC meeting. This platform will leverage advanced technologies like AI and machine learning to identify and mitigate fraud risks, ultimately leading to a safer digital payments environment. 

This initiative underscores the RBI's commitment to prioritizing customer protection, which is further evident in their consistent efforts to introduce guidelines surrounding data protection, cybersecurity, and KYC procedures. These comprehensive measures will empower the industry to deliver a more secure and trusted digital ecosystem for all, Ratan added.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The RBI decision to continue remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation reflects a balanced approach to sustain economic growth while keeping inflation in check. RBI’s decision on e-mandates for recurring payments to be extended to fastags, introduction of auto replenishment of UPI-like wallet, and establishment of a digital payments intelligence platform, is all set to promote a resilient banking sector, said Ajay Kumar Srivastava, Managing Director & CEO, Indian Overseas Bank.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The Fed has elbow room to pursue tight monetary policy because growth in the US is robust, while Europe is on the other side, with growth concerns amid elevated inflation. The RBI, too, has policy space to keep rates higher and rein in CPI inflation to its stated goal of ~4%. Our base case is a normal monsoon trimming the headline to 4.5%. The RBI has kept its inflation forecast this fiscal unchanged at 4.5%. However, it remains more optimistic of growth, revising up GDP growth by 20 basis points to 7.2%. CRISIL’s estimate is a tad lower at 6.8%. We now see the RBI cutting rates starting October and have lowered our expectation to two rate cuts against three foreseen earlier, said Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: MPC maintains a cautious pause and the commentary suggests that the MPC’s policy decisions will be determined by domestic growth-inflation dynamics while considering the impact of monetary policy outcomes in the advanced economies. The RBI Governor explicitly stated in the context of ‘follow the Fed’. Given India’s growth-inflation dynamics, we expect a rate-cut to possibly come through in Q4FY25 with a change in policy stance by December 2024. The progress of the South West monsoon and the July budget will be critical inputs in the August policy, said Achala Jethmalani, Economist, RBL Bank.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Even as one more member has now turned in favour of a stance change and a rate change, we do not see the RBI in any hurry to move towards a pivot. Overall, this policy continues to echo similar sentiments as in the previous policy – that the RBI is unlikely to make any haste in its decision to pivot and will remain driven by the domestic growth-inflation mix in determining the timing of its policy move. In our opinion, with growth expected to remain firm, the last phase of dis-inflation towards the 4% target remains arduous and hence the RBI would be willing to bide its time. We see a shallow rate cut this fiscal, probably starting in December 2024, said Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at YES BANK.

RBI MPC Meeting Live:  On foreign fund inflows due to the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan index, RBI Governor Das said the central bank has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also, he said.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Speaking on the issue of downtime in UPI, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that there was no problem at the end of UPI or NPCI. The problem arises from banks’ end and we are dealing with that.

RBI Deputy Governor Rabi Sankar also said that the efforts were on to reduce downtime in UPI.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: We are very clear that RBI is there in the forward market. Let’s wait for the toolkit for intervention, said RBI Governor.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The elephant (of inflation) is walking very slowly. We would like the elephant to reach forest and be there. So, we are watchful. We would like inflation to align itself with the target and be there on a durable basis. Our last mile of journey towards 4% is sticky, said Governor Shaktikanta Das.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: We are not seeing signs of overheating in terms of growth. Nothing is off the table, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra in the context of repo rate hike or cut.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Even if the US Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, the RBI may not, Governor Shaktikanta Das commented on a question if not following the Fed means RBI will ease even when and if US Fed does not.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: A constant repo rate will support the commercial real estate sector by ensuring steady borrowing costs, increasing investor confidence, and allowing long-term investment planning. These factors will help to create a favorable climate for development and sustainability in the commercial real estate market, said Anuj Munot, Founder and CEO of UrbanWrk.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Given Normal monsoon expectation and Fiscal Deficit for FY25 likely to be remain in 4.9% - 5.1% in line with interim budget guidance, rate cuts by advanced economies (Canada/ ECB), rate cuts expectation from Fed in second half of CY 2024 we assign higher probability that RBI may change the MPC stance to “Neutral” in August 2024 preparing for rates in second half of FY 2025. Market reaction has been muted post the policy decision and 10 yr Gsec yield is trading in the band of 7-7.03%, said Deepak Agrawal, CIO – Debt, Kotak Mutual Fund.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The RBI is playing the role of a perfect conductor. Music is flowing through in a melodious tone. Core Inflation is below the Mid-Point of target, Inflation trajectory is falling, Growth is in the higher range, Rupee is stable, Liquidity is well balanced albeit with some skewness due to government spending. Market just wants the show to go on which the credit policy has delivered. Why repair something which ain’t broken?, said Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra AMC.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Robust growth provides the policy space for the RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged and focus on inflation. Nevertheless, the current growth-inflation dynamics favour shifting to a neutral policy stance at the next meeting. A normal or above-normal monsoon is expected to lower and contain food inflation. However, a slowdown in private consumption may impact growth and potentially undermine the recent revival in private capital expenditure. Adopting a neutral policy stance will allow the RBI to respond swiftly with a rate cut if warranted by the data. We anticipate rate cuts of 50-75 basis points in FY25, said Vikram Chhabra, Senior Economist, 360 ONE Asset.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The key takeaway from RBI policy is a shift in voting pattern from 5-1 to 4-2 and upwards revision in growth for FY25 to 7.2% from 7.0% while keeping inflation unchanged at 4.5% for the year.  For RBI as we have reiterated earlier growth remaining firm, monetary policy has elbow room to focus on price stability. The growth revision only reiterates that RBI is willing to wait and watch – RBI can watch for longer. RBI has the trinity of patience, perseverance and poise to support the economy, said Anitha Rangan, Economist, Equirus.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The upward revision in growth, the expectation of a non-linear disinflationary process, and a clear signal that the RBI will not mirror the Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary policy easing, imply that a rate cut in 2024 is improbable.

However, with two of the six monetary policy committee members advocating for easing, and considering the RBI's expectation of continued falling inflation alongside the current high real interest rates, it appears that the RBI may not maintain the policy rates and liquidity tightening stance for an extended period. Today's policy is neutral for financial markets in the near term, but the medium-term implications are positive for both the equity and debt markets, said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Going forward with the uncertainty around election outcomes behind us the focus would be on budget. The domestic strengths and policy focus has put the economy on a healthy growth trajectory and the rate cuts expected in the later half of FY25 is likely to aid the equity markets, said Anil Rego, Founder and Fund Manager at Right Horizons.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Our outlook on the domestic growth prospects nevertheless, is relatively moderate with a forecast of 6.8% for FY25, given the base factor at play and the challenges in policy making for the upcoming coalition government. We expect RBI to calibrate system liquidity appropriately and facilitate better monetary transmission through absorption of any excessive liquidity portion that may arise after the restart of government spending and the expected inflows from debt FPIs amidst India’s inclusion in the JPM bond indices.  

Given the tone of the MPC statement and the expectation of stronger domestic growth, we believe that there is a low likelihood of any rate cut by RBI in the current calendar year, said Suman Chowdhury, Chief- Economist and Head- Research, Acuité Ratings & Research.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The Indian stock market rallied after the announcement of RBI policy, with the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 gaining more than 1% each. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% with a majority vote of 4:2. The MPC has continued with the stance of withdrawal of accommodation. The central bank revised upward FY25 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7.0% estimated earlier. It retained FY25 CPI inflation forecasted at 4.5%. 

The upward revision in FY25 GDP forecast to 7.2% adds to the argument that India’s political situation will remain supportive of  economic growth. It is also encouraging to note that in addition to Dr. Jayant Verma, now Dr. Ashima Goyal has also voted for a rate cut. I am hopeful the count of MPC members will increase further, possibly leading to a rate cut in August 2024. An out of cycle decision may not be ruled out as well, now that Canada, Switzerland, Sweden and European Central Bank (ECB) have already cut, and Bank of England (BoE) and US Federal Reserve cuts are a matter of time, said Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist of Piramal Group.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: There is a view that in matters of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank is guided by the principle of ‘follow the Fed’. 36 I would like to unambiguously state that while we do keep a watch on whether clouds are building up or clearing out in the distant horizon, we play the game according to the local weather and pitch conditions. In other words, while we do consider the impact of monetary policy in advanced economies on Indian markets, our actions are primarily determined by domestic growth-inflation conditions and the outlook, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his monetary policy speech.

The RBI was concerned with sticky food inflation amid uptrend in global food prices and industrial commodity prices. Normal monsoon this year is critical for easing food inflation. RBI also emphasized that there will not be any blind following of the Fed in terms of rate cut as they will give more weightage to local growth inflation dynamic. Overall, a prudent monetary policy in our view with potential rate cuts pushed in the 3rd quarter of FY25, said Dhawal Dalal, Chief Investment Officer – Fixed Income of Edelweiss Asset Management.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Borrowers may face continued high interest rates on loans. Since the repo rate directly influences lending rates, an unchanged rate means existing loans remain benchmarked to an elevated repo rate at 6.50% with the possibility of new loans being offered with lower spreads than older loans. Any rate cut in future would lead to lower rates, hence lowering the EMIs that loan borrowers have to pay. However, the fixed-interest loan will not be impacted because of this, said Adhil Shetty, CEO, Bankbazaar.com.

As the wait for rate cuts continues, borrowing costs are likely to increase. However, interest rates on fixed deposits (FDs) are also expected to rise, with banks offering competitive rates to attract more depositors. This is the best time to monitor rates as banks may offer higher interest rates on FDs to attract more deposits, as they try to balance their own lending and deposit rates. This makes it a favourable time for depositors to lock in higher returns on their deposits, he added.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Two members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut repo rate by 25 basis points and change the stance to ‘Neutral’.

Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Dr. Rajiv Ranjan, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% and maintain the policy stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’.

Dr. Ashima Goyal and Prof. Jayanth R. Varma voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and change the stance to neutral.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: To encourage wider adoption of UPI Lite, RBI now proposed to bring it under the e-mandate framework by introducing a facility for customers to automatically replenish their UPI Lite wallets if the balance goes below the threshold limit set by them. This will further enhance the ease of making small value digital payments.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: In view of the changing dynamics of international trade and in line with the progressive liberalisation of foreign exchange regulations, RBI proposed to rationalise the extant FEMA guidelines on export and import of goods and services. This will further promote ease of doing business and provide greater operational flexibility to Authorized Dealer banks. Draft guidelines will be issued shortly for stakeholder feedback, Governor Das said.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: On review of the bulk deposit limit, RBI proposed to revise the definition of bulk deposits as ‘Single Rupee term deposit of ₹3 crore and above’ for SCBs (excluding RRBs) and SFBs. Further, it is also proposed to define the bulk deposit limit for Local Area Banks as ‘Single Rupee term deposits of ₹1 crore and above’, as applicable in case of RRBs.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The Reserve Bank will continue to be nimble and flexible in its liquidity management through main and fine-tuning operations in both repo and reverse repo. We will deploy an appropriate mix of instruments to modulate both frictional and durable liquidity so as to ensure that money market interest rates evolve in an orderly manner which preserves financial stability. As our actions over the recent period have shown, the Reserve Bank stands committed to maintain stability and orderliness in all segments of financial markets and institutions regulated by it, RBI Governor Das said.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The Indian rupee (INR) moved in a narrow range with low volatility during 2024- 25 so far (up to June 5), despite trading under pressure amidst foreign portfolio investment (FPI) outflows. The relative stability of the INR bears testimony to India’s sound and resilient economic fundamentals, macroeconomic and financial stability, and improvement in the external outlook, RBI Governor Das said.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Foreign portfolio investment, i.e. FPI flows surged in 2023-2024 with net FPI inflows of around $41.6 billion. Since the beginning of 2024-25, however, foreign portfolio investors have net sellers in the domestic market with net outflows of $5 billion till June 5.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI Governor proposes setting up of a digital payments intelligence platform for real-time data sharing across the system.

On inflation, we are on the right track, but there is still work to be done. Globally, there are concerns that the last mile of disinflation might be protracted and arduous amidst continuing geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions and commodity price volatility. In India, with growth holding firm, monetary policy has greater elbow room to pursue price stability to ensure that inflation aligns to the target on a durable basis.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the central bank will take further steps to moderate unsecured loans and advances. He noted that few regulated entities were charging certain fees without proper disclosures.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: India’s banking system remains resilient backed by asset quality, rise in profitability. The NBFCs have displayed strong financials in FY24. The banking sector, NBFCs and overall financial sector remain robust.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his monetary policy speech, said that the central bank transferred ₹2.11 lakh crore to the union government as dividend. He added that the central board decided to keep the contingent reserve buffer of 6.5%. This risk provisioning of CRB will further strengthen RBI’s balance sheet.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI retained inflation estimates for FY25 at 4.5%.

Q1FY25 inflation estimates retained at 4.9%

Q2FY25 inflation estimates retained at 3.8%

Q3FY25 inflation estimates retained at 4.6%

Q4FY25 inflation estimates retained at 4.5%

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7% earlier. 

Q1FY25 GDP growth forecast increased to 7.3% from 7.1%

Q2FY25 GDP growth forecast increased to 7.2% from 6.9%

Q3FY25 GDP growth forecast increased to 7.3% from 7%

Q4FY25 GDP growth forecast increased to 7.2% from 7%

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI retained CPI inflation forecast for FY25 at 4.5%.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7% earlier.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI’s MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by a 4:2 majority. The rate-setting panel also decided to keep the stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, maintains stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: We believe that the upcoming RBI MPC outcome is expected to maintain the status quo on interest rates, keeping them at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive policy meeting. Despite the recent election outcome and fluid political environment, the RBI will likely hold off on rate cuts until the full budget is presented in July 2024, providing a clearer fiscal perspective. The RBI may not change its monetary stance but could guide future shifts from "gradual withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral." Additionally, while inflation estimates for FY25 are expected to remain at 4.5%, an upgrade in GDP growth projections is possible, said Suman Bannerjee, CIO, Hedonova.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent as rise in food prices continues to pose a threat to inflation. While an immediate rate cut may not be on the radar, the potential reduction in the rates are likely to happen later in the year – maybe sometime around October this year. Forecasts regarding inflation might be revised down slightly, while growth predictions regarding GDP are expected to remain stable, said Atul Monga, CEO & Co-founder of BASIC Home Loan.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The RBI is expected to maintain current policy rates to stimulate investment and consumption while carefully balancing the imperatives of fostering economic growth and mitigating inflationary pressures. Overall, we anticipate that investor sentiment will remain bullish, bolstered by the market's ongoing resilience and consistent performance. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by several key factors, including robust economic indicators, favorable corporate earnings reports, and sustained confidence in future growth prospects. Additionally, the influx of institutional investments and the continued availability of liquidity are likely to support this positive market sentiment, ensuring that the bullish trend persists in the foreseeable future, said Swati Saxena, Founder & CEO – 4 Thoughts Finance, a wealth management firm.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Here are the key highlights of RBI April policy:

Policy Measures:

• Repo rate kept unchanged at 6.5%
• Policy stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ maintained 
• GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 7%. The quarterly projections are - Q1 at 7.1%; Q2 at 6.9%; Q3 at 7% and Q4 at 7%.
• CPI inflation forecast for FY25 at 4.5%. Here are detailed inflation forecast: Q1 at 4.9%; Q2 at 3.8%; Q3 at 4.6% and Q4 at 4.5% 

Non-policy measures:

• Scheme for trading of sovereign green bonds at IFSC to be announced
• Introduction of a mobile app to access RBI’s Retail Direct Scheme for participation in GSec market
• Draft circular for LCR framework for banks to be issued shortly
• Dealing in rupee interest rate derivate products for all small finance banks
• Enabling UPI for Cash Deposit Facility
• UPI access for Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) through third-party applications
• Distribution of CBDCs through Non-bank Payment System Operators

RBI MPC Meeting Live: The Indian rupee was little changed while dollar-rupee forward premiums edged lower ahead of the RBI monetary policy decision. The rupee was at 83.4750 against the US dollar, barely changed from its close of 83.4725 in the previous session, Reuters reported. Traders reckon the rupee is unlikely to have much of a reaction to the RBI's policy decision and instead will be driven by how flows related to local equities pan out.