The week in charts: Monetary policy, fertilizer subsidy, weak monsoon forecast

Nandita Venkatesan
4 min read11 Apr 2026, 07:00 AM IST
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The RBI’s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%.(Reuters)
Summary
In this weekly Plain Facts compilation, we present to you data-based insights, with easy-to-read charts, to help you delve deeper into the stories reported by Mint in the week gone by.

From the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) holding the policy rate steady at 5.25% amid the war in West Asia, to the government raising fertilizer subsidy for the upcoming kharif season, net demat account additions slowing down in FY26, and India’s ports logging strong growth in cargo traffic—here’s a round-up of this week’s news in numbers.

Wait and watch

The RBI’s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, reflecting the wait-and-watch approach adopted by global peers such as the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank amid the war in West Asia.

The RBI pegged FY27 GDP growth at 6.9% under the new GDP (gross domestic product) series, down from FY26 growth estimate of 7.6%. The central bank flagged risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and high energy prices. It trimmed growth estimates for the first two quarters of FY27 compared with its February outlook—Q1 to 6.8% from 6.9% and Q2 to 6.7% from 7.0%. In February, the RBI had released data for only the first two quarters of FY27 pending the updates in the GDP series.

Also Read | How quick service restaurants are riding the India growth story

Fertilizer shield

The Union cabinet on Wednesday approved 41,534 crore in nutrient-based subsidies (NBS) for phosphatic and potassic fertilizers for the 2026 kharif season. The amount is 4,317 crore higher than the kharif subsidy for 2025 and comes as escalating conflict in West Asia has pushed up prices of key fertilizer inputs.

Key fertilizers covered under the NBS scheme include Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), Muriate of Potash (MOP), and various Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash, and Sulphur (NPKS) grades. India is the largest importer of DAP and a major buyer of other fertilizers.

The higher outlay risks pushing up India’s fertilizer subsidy bill. For FY27, the government has budgeted 54,000 crore for NBS of the total fertilizer subsidy allocation of 1.7 trillion. Past trends show the actual spending has often exceeded the budgeted amount.

Numbers talk

41: The number of consecutive days Iran’s nationwide internet blackout has lasted as of Thursday, amounting to 960 hours, according to NetBlocks. It is the longest countrywide shutdown on record.

$730 million: The amount raised by Agratas Energy Storage Solutions, the battery arm of Tata Group, from banks in 2025, Mint reported. The company has pledged all its movable assets to secure part of the borrowing.

$1 billion: The value of the contract Wipro has secured from food-processing firm Olam Group, its first mega deal in nearly six years. As part of the deal, Wipro will acquire Mindsprint, Olam’s IT arm, for $375 million.

Up to 15%: The rise in blue-collar worker hiring costs over the past month, as a scarcity of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has forced some workers to move back to their towns and villages, Mint reported.

200: The number of roles Meta plans to eliminate at its Silicon Valley office, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg accelerates the company’s AI push and streamlines its workforce. The reductions will take effect in late May.

Tepid show

After two years of strong expansion, the pace of new demat account additions slowed in FY26, signalling a shift in retail investor behaviour amid volatile markets and weaker returns, Mint reported.

Net additions fell to 32.1 million from a record 41.1 million in FY25, a 22% year-on-year fall, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The slowdown has coincided with weak market performance, as benchmark indices posted their poorest showing in six years amid US tariffs and the conflict in West Asia. Total demat accounts stood at 224.5 million as of FY26.

Net demat account additions had surged in the post-pandemic period, jumping 142% on year in FY22. The pace eased in FY23 before picking up again in FY24 and FY25.

Monsoon risks

India is likely to see below-normal monsoon in 2026 due to the emergence of El Niño conditions, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday, pegging the cumulative rainfall at 94% (±5%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the June-September season.

El Niño is a climatic pattern characterized by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often linked to a higher risk of low rainfall and drought in South Asia.

The forecaster said that there is a 30% probability of ‘drought’ and a 40% chance of rains being ‘below normal’ this year. This is the highest since 2023, a year that saw a El Nino event.

State-run India Meteorological Department will issue its first forecast for the 2026 monsoon season later this month. A deficient monsoon could weigh on agricultural output, rural demand and food prices, posing risks to inflation and overall economic growth.

Maritime growth

Also Read | Iran war, Oracle job cut, El Niño worries: What’s keeping the world on edge

Major Indian ports clocked 915 million tonnes (mt) of cargo traffic in FY26, surpassing the annual target of 904 mt, and registering a 7.1% year-on-year growth, according to government data.

The ports, shipping and waterways ministry said the growth was driven by improved operational efficiency, modernization of port infrastructure and increased handling of key trading commodities such as coal, crude oil and fertilizers.

Gujarat’s Deendayal Port handled the most cargo at 160 mt, up 6.6% on year, followed by Odisha’s Paradip Port (156.5 mt, up 4%), and Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Navi Mumbai (102 mt, up 10.7%). Goa’s Mormugao Port handled the least cargo at 21 mt, but posted the fastest growth at 15.9%.

Also Read | Markets fear uncertainty more than war: How to navigate geopolitical crises

About the Author

Nandita Venkatesan is a data journalist at Mint with over nine years of experience. Her reporting focuses on government policy, health policy and socio-economic data. In recent years, she has used data to reveal trends, explain complex issues around a range of topics including the rise in non-communicable diseases in India and how junk food contributes to it, antimicrobial resistance and India’s education–employment imbalance and gaps in India’s budget finances. Her most pivotal works include her deep-dives into government finances and its macroeconomic implications. <br><br>She believes in the power of data literacy in today’s world of information overload to help drive sound public discourse and policymaking. <br><br>Nandita was part of the Time magazine's "Time100 Next Leaders" list in 2023 for her work in advocating for making essential generic pharmaceutical drugs cheaper. She has served on a World Health Organization task force around tuberculosis and addressed the United Nations General Assembly in 2018, where she shared her lived experience of surviving the disease. <br><br>Nandita holds an advanced degree in public policy from the University of Oxford as a Chevening-Weidenfeld Hoffmann scholar.

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