Home / Economy / Strong headwinds to slowdown global trade growth next year: WTO

Global trade growth is likely to slow down in the closing months of 2022 and in 2023 as the world economy countries are engulfed by strong headwinds, according to the latest World Trade Organization Goods Trade Barometer.

The current Goods Trade Barometer index reading is 96.2, as per ANI reports.

The downturn in the index could be attributed to the Ukraine-Russia war, high energy prices, and monetary tightening in major economies, the WTO said on Monday.

The index was weighed down by negative readings in sub-indices representing export orders (91.7), air freight (93.3), and electronic components (91.0). Together, these suggest cooling business sentiment and weaker global import demand, ANI reported.

The container shipping (99.3) and raw materials (97.6) indices finished only slightly below the trend but have lost momentum.

It further said that the main exception is the automotive products index (103.8), which rose above trend due to stronger vehicle sales in the United States and increased exports from Japan as supply conditions improved and as the yen continued to depreciate. 

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Values greater than 100 signal above-trend expansion while values less than 100 indicate below-trend growth. It is released on a quarterly basis depending on data availability.

However, Moody's Analytics, in its latest report 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', had stated that India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. It said that inward investment and productivity gains in technology and agriculture could accelerate growth in the country.

It also claimed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would increase the repo rate above 6%, causing GDP to falter. 


(With ANI inputs)

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