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The economic cost of the second surge

With work from home continuing, the demand for commercial real estate is expected to be subdued. Also, many smaller businesses are already having trouble finding workers, thanks to the reverse migration.

The return of lockdown is sending shock waves across multiple sectors. What’s in store for the economy?

The British economist John Maynard Keynes once supposedly remarked: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for (one’s) reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." Economists take this seriously and tend to move in a herd, forecasting what other economists are also forecasting and changing forecasts once other economists have started to do so.

As the second wave of covid-19 spreads in the country, economists have started trimming India’s expected economic growth in 2021-22. Nomura has downgraded its growth projection to 12.6% from the earlier 13.5%. JPMorgan says India will grow at 11% against 13% earlier.

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