$2.5-3 billion Indian exports to benefit from Trump tariff rollbacks — Here's what items stand to gain, way forward

Indian exports are set to benefit to the tune of $2.5-3 billion on United States tariff exemptions, according to Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), Reuters reported.

It added that according to Sahai, Indian agricultural exporters, particularly of high-value products, stand to gain as various food items are lifted from the impacted list.

“This order opens space for premium, speciality and value-added products. Exporters who shift towards higher-value segments will be better protected from price pressures and can tap rising consumer demand,” he felt.

Who wins after Trump tariff rollback?

Among others, Indian agricultural exporters are among those who will make gains after US President Donald Trump exempted more than 200 food items, including beef (of which India is a major exporter), from his reciprocal tariffs on November 14, as per the report.

Among the items that will face immediate benefit in price due to the rollback include Indian exports of coffee, cashew nuts, tea and spices. “The move benefits Indian farmers and exporters of tea, coffee, cashew and fruits and vegetables,” a senior official involved in Indian farm export policy told Reuters.

According to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative lobby group, India's US-bound farm exports — focused on a few high-value spices and niche products — would register limited gains given its weak presence in key exempt items such as tomatoes, citrus fruits, melons, bananas and fruit juices.

“The tariff shift would marginally strengthen India’s position in spices and niche horticulture and help revive some lost US demand after the tariff hikes,” he told Reuters.

Sign of things to come? India-US trade talks could benefit

Analysts told the agency that the exemptions will help boost demand given that unlike Vietnam and the European Union who had 15-20% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, Indian exports faced tariffs as high as 50% making it difficult to compete.

Notably, as of September 2025, Indian exports to the US fell to $5.43 billion after tariffs — by close to 12% year-on-year (YoY) after tariffs were raised from 25% to 50%. Of these, farm exports which are estimated to account for $5.7 billion of the India's $87 billion worth exports to the US in 2024, were worst hit, it said.

But officials involved in India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) feel that this is a positive step for ongoing talks.

Are there any challenges ahead?

Competitor countries are still better placed that India, the report noted citing experts. Overall, ASEAN, African and Latin American exports will make larger gains compared to India, felt Srivastava.

The uncertainty comes amid confusion over whether the exemptions would be imposed on 25% tariffs or the full 50% tariffs. The additional 25% was imposed on India by Trump as “punishment” for buying Russian oil amid its war in Ukraine.

There is also a matter of strong competition from Vietnam and Indonesia, high freight costs, and tougher US quality requirements. "Tariff relief is important, but market recovery also depends on logistics and our ability to match prices,” one exporter told Reuters.

(With inputs from Reuters)