US-Israel-Iran war: JMIC data shows ‘near-total temporary pause in routine commercial traffic’ through Strait of Hormuz

A review of shipping signals through the Strait of Hormuz shows maritime traffic through the strategic chokepoint has reached a complete halt over the past 24 hours amid the United States and Israel's attack on Iran and subsequent retaliatory attacks by the Middle Eastern nation against US bases in the region.

A Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) note on 6 March posted the highest alert for the situation at “Critical”, saying that attacks against commercial vessels have continued over the past 24 hours. A ‘Critical’ scale indicates that an attack is almost certain.

“No confirmed large-scale Iranian missile attacks against Arabian Gulf or Gulf of Oman port infrastructure have been independently verified within the last 24 hours. Recent activity has focused on isolated vessel impacts rather than sustained port-targeting operations,” the report added.

Strait of Hormuz effectively shut?

According to JMIC data, the Strait of Hormuz averages transit of around 138 vessels per 24-hour period, but the recent Automatic Identification System (AIS) data review indicates transits have reduced to single-digit levels.

“Only two confirmed commercial transit were observed in the past 24 hours. (Note these were cargo and not tanker vessels). This represents a near-total temporary pause in routine commercial traffic,” it said. This means no oil tankers have been able to cross the important waterway in at least 24 hours.

The note for 1- 5 March added that no formal legal closure of the Strait has been acknowledged, and the reduction “stems from a combination of security threats, insurance constraints, operational uncertainty, and effective disruptions rather than a declared blockade”.

Port and anchorage congestion risk

Further, the report noted that a high concentration of vessels remains anchored, drifting and at berth in the Arabian Gulf ports. “The congestion remains complicated by EMI, AIS spoofing and jamming,” it added.

JMIC has advised US and Israeli-affiliated or flagged vessels “to minimize time spent pier-side or at anchor within high-risk zones to reduce vulnerability of targeting. Maintaining movement and avoiding predictable patterns remains critical for mitigating the risk of targeted strikes or collateral damage”.

Recommended measures to deal with threats

• Cross-check GPS position with radar ranges and visual bearings.

• Validate ECDIS with secondary navigation systems.

• Increase bridge manning in constrained waters.

• Treat anomalous VHF communications cautiously and verify identity.

• Include offshore activities and port operations in all threat and risk assessments.

JMIC threat level at ‘Critical’: Outlook for the next 24-48 hours

According to the Centre, the outlook for the next 24 to 48 hours remains ‘Critical’, with the past 24 hours' data suggesting “sustained hostile operating conditions with no confirmed indicators of de-escalation”.

“Active kinetic hazards, including missiles, UAVs, and stand-off strike effects, remain present across the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Gulf, with incident reporting indicating that anchorage and drift patterns may elevate vulnerability,” it added.

It also advised that all merchant vessels, regardless of flag or affiliation, should continue to operate under the assumption of sustained high-end threat exposure. “The operational environment should be assessed as persistently high risk but currently stable at the Critical threat level,” it concluded.

Oil trade at a standstill: What we know so far

According to Bloomberg, oil is on course for its biggest weekly surge since 2022. Brent rallied 17%, but prices slipped slightly on Friday after US President Donald Trump signalled “imminent action” to reduce pressure on prices.

The US Treasury also issued a temporary waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil until early April.

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum on 5 March said the Trump administration is discussing a number of moves to counter oil and gas price spikes amid the war in Iran, it added.