In what could prove to be a major relief for nearly every country in the world, the US Supreme Court has struck down a significant portion of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, opening the door for companies to seek refunds for over $100 billion in additional duties paid since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on 2 April 2025.
For India, this could mean that nearly 60% of the export basket, which was set to face 18% tariffs upon the conclusion of the interim trade deal with the US, reverts to the pre-Liberation Day weighted average rate of 2.5%. The ruling may also mean India will get a chance to re-evaluate its trade deal with the US. However, Trump, following the verdict, announced that he signed an executive order imposing a new 10% global tariff under a different rule.
Data from the US treasury department and UASFacts show that the US collected $241 billion in customs duties between April 2025 and December 2025, with a monthly average of around $27 billion. This is about three to four times the average monthly tariffs collected in previous years. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the US may have collected additional revenue of around $160-170 billion during the high-tariff period, including those under Section 232. Estimates on revenue that may need to be refunded vary from $100 billion to $175 billion.
While the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, it also clarified that the ruling did not address tariffs under Section 232, which are for import controls for national security.
“The IEEPA was originally crafted to let presidents restrict financial or property transactions with hostile foreign powers—not to impose general tariffs. Still, the administration relied on it to impose tariffs and collect an estimated $100 billion in new customs revenue,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, noted.
With Section 232 still in place, India will continue to witness high tariffs of 25-50% on several goods such as steel, aluminium, copper, and auto parts, which make up around 10% of India's total export basket. This translates roughly into $8-9 billion worth of goods.
The ruling has also reset the stage for the future of the India-US trade deal framework, which faced criticism at home for granting the US greater access to certain farm goods, such as tree nuts, distiller's dried grains with solubles, fresh fruits, wine and spirits, and soybean oil, among others.
Experts believe that with the threat of higher tariffs likely to end, India should re-examine the terms of the deal.