Viksit Bharat 2047 under threat? World Bank says extreme heat costs South Asia 31 million jobs every year

Extreme heat could shrink South Asia's economy by 7% by 2050 if countries in the region fail to take urgent adaptation measures, according to the newly released World Bank report. This could cost the region the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs every year.

According to the World Bank's “A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia's Cities” report, rising temperatures are no longer just a seasonal emergency but a major structural threat to employment, productivity, and long-term economic growth.

Without adaptation, the report said, rising heat could leave South Asia's GDP close to 7 per cent smaller by 2050—the steepest projected loss of any developing region in the world.

It also found that the region is expected to add around 280 million working-age people by 2050. However, heat reduces productivity in existing work, lowers earnings, and discourages the investment needed to create new jobs.

“Heat reduces productivity in existing work, discourages the investment that would create new jobs, and shifts labour demand toward cooling and heat-resilient industries,” the report said.

“South Asia's cities are central to the region's future, but rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth at risk,” said Johannes Zutt, World Bank Vice President for South Asia.

India's “Viksit Bharat 2047” under threat?

For India, these findings arrive as the government pursues ambitious long-term plans.

The World Bank report warned that rising temperatures could undermine efforts to become a developed nation under the Viksit Bharat 2047 roadmap — including the expansion of manufacturing via Make in India and the strengthening of global supply chains as urban areas expand — as heat risks become a severe structural constraint on both livability and economic growth.

Rising temperatures could undermine these efforts by becoming “a structural constraint on productivity, livability, and economic growth,” particularly as cities continue to expand, the report said.

Opportunities for adaptation

Despite the stark warnings, the report outlines critical windows of opportunity for policymakers.

Around 70 per cent of the urban infrastructure India will need by mid-century is yet to be built, it said. This allows cities to integrate heat resilience into future housing, transport, and urban planning from the ground up.

The report said that India is preparing the AHEAD (Alleviating Heat Stress by Enhancing Production of Affordable Cooling Devices) programme with support from the World Bank. Expanding domestic manufacturing of affordable cooling equipment could create nearly 3.7 million jobs by 2040.

To help cities remain competitive, the World Bank recommended mobilising public and private investment to promote sustainable cooling, strengthen Heat Action Plans, expand early warning systems, and protect vulnerable workers.