New Delhi: The area under paddy cultivation could shrink in the ongoing kharif season, as below-normal monsoon rainfall and the return of El Niño weigh on sowing, according to four people familiar with the matter.
A smaller paddy harvest could reduce output of rice—the country’s most widely consumed staple and a key component of the retail inflation basket—and put upward pressure on prices, especially if lower acreage is accompanied by weaker yields. However, ample government rice stocks are expected to cushion any immediate supply shock and keep food security concerns at bay.
The southwest monsoon—which showers rains on the country over June to September—is critical for cultivation of paddy, a water-intensive crop that relies on adequate rainfall during sowing and transplantation.
Already, this June has been the driest in more than a decade and the fifth driest since record-keeping began in 1901, with monsoon rainfall 39.8% below the long-term average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Significantly, the IMD has also predicted below normal rains in July—the peak sowing and transplantation month for Kharif paddy—at 94% of the LPA.
Early sowing data already point to a slowdown. As of 26 June, paddy had been sown over 2.57 million hectares, down from 3.44 million hectares a year earlier, according to the agriculture ministry. Rice is India’s largest Kharif crop, with a normal sowing area of about 41.2 million hectares based on the average of the past five years.
“Based on the initial feedback we have received from farmers, it is becoming increasingly clear that not only is the acreage under cultivation likely to decline, but production is also expected to fall,” said Jagjit Singh Dallewal, a farmer leader and president of Bhartiya Kisan Union (Ekta Sidhupur), which is associated with more than 200,000 farmers in Punjab, Haryana,Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
“Since this is a water-intensive crop, farmers will have to use more diesel for irrigation, significantly increasing their input costs. Many farmers are uncertain whether they will be able to recover these additional expenses,” Dallewal added.
“We foresee a marginal dip in the area under paddy cultivation this season, primarily due to delayed monsoon progress,” said a senior scientist at ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research), requesting anonymity, adding that sowing activity may gain momentum in July if rainfall improves.
The scientist said farmers are being advised to adopt short-duration paddy varieties that can mature within a shortened growing window. Long-duration paddy varieties typically take 135-140 days to mature, while short-duration varieties are ready for harvest in less than 120 days.
“Instead of conventional transplanting, we recommend direct seeded rice (DSR), which requires less water, reduces labour costs and enables timely crop establishment despite delays in the onset of the monsoon,” the scientist said.
According to Sudhir Panwar, a farm policy expert and former member of Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission, given the below-normal rainfall forecast in July, irrigation costs are likely to rise due to heat stress and inadequate soil moisture.
“Under these conditions, farmers may increasingly shift to crops that require less water instead of opting for paddy,” he added.
Queries emailed to the ministries of agriculture and farmers welfare, and consumer affairs, food and public distribution remained unanswered till the press time.
Monsoon delays hit wider Kharif sowing
The low rainfall has affected the total Kharif sowing area across all crops, which stood at 18.27 million hectares as on 26 June, compared with 23.64 million hectares during the same period last year.
Other kharif crops, too, have been hit. Oilseeds witnessed one of the sharpest declines, with coverage at 1.7 million hectares, nearly 1.94 million hectares lower than last year. Cotton sowing also remained subdued at 2.96 million hectares, a decrease of 1.57 million hectares. And pulses recorded sowing over 1.49 million hectares, down by 653,000 hectares year-on-year.
To be sure, agriculture experts note that the current sowing figures represent an early-season snapshot and are closely linked to the progress of the southwest monsoon. Paddy transplantation is expected to gain momentum as rainfall improves across key producing states in the coming weeks.
“Given that more than half of the area sown during the kharif season is typically covered in the month of July, below normal rainfall in the month would adversely impact kharif crop output,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra Ltd.
Even so, India enters the season with comfortable foodgrain inventories, reducing the risk of any immediate supply shortage.
Data from the consumer affairs ministry showed that central pool food grain stocks in FCI godowns stood at 81.75 million tonnes as of 1 May 2026, much above the buffer norms of 21 mt.
This includes 38.95 mt of rice (buffer norm: 13.58 mt) and 42.8 mt of wheat against the buffer norm of 21 mt.