The government’s decision to reopen wheat exports in February after nearly four years—and then scaling up the quota from 2.5 million tonnes to 5 million—comes as India sits on a comfortable surplus. The move aims to ease excess supply and support farm prices without hurting food security. But how do exports lift farmer incomes, and can this be done without stoking inflation? Mint explains.
Why is India allowing more wheat export now?
Because there is more wheat in the system than the country currently needs. Data from the ministry of consumer affairs, food and public distribution shows wheat stocks were at a record 21.79 million tonnes as on 1 April 2026, compared to just 8.05 million tonnes in the same month in 2017. Moreover, the 2025–26 harvest is seen at a record high of about 120 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is lower. And government's procurement has also been steady, adding to already comfortable buffer stocks.
This means excess grain stock is building up, especially during the peak arrival season when fresh supplies hit mandis and prices tend to soften. By allowing exports, the government is trying to move out part of this surplus. This helps prevent a glut, brings better realizations for farmers and reduces the cost of storage and of carrying the excess stock, while still keeping enough wheat in reserve to meet food security needs. The move also prevents grain wastage due to rodents or storage issues.
How will exports improve farmer incomes?
During peak arrivals, mandi prices tend to fall as supply floods the market. Per Agmarknet (Agricultural Marketing Information System) data, the mandi price of wheat was ₹2,524.32 per quintal (100 kg) on 19 April, about 2.4% below the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,585. This highlights the pressure on prices during the harvest season, reinforcing the need to offload surplus through exports to support realizations of farmers.
By allowing exports, now totalling about 5 million tonnes, the government effectively removes part of this excess. This supports open market prices closer to, or even slightly above, the MSP. Even a modest increase matters. A ₹50-100 per quintal price increase can translate into roughly ₹1,800–3,600 additional income per hectare, as government data shows an average yield of about 36 quintals per hectare. At the national level, this becomes a significant income boost without any direct subsidy.
Will this disrupt local supply or fan food inflation?
That risk remains limited for now. India continues to maintain buffer stocks well above the prescribed norms, ensuring availability for the public distribution system (PDS). The government also retains the option to release wheat through the open market if prices start rising sharply. In effect, exports are being used as a pressure valve removing excess supply when stocks are high, and holding back when domestic availability tightens. As per a NITI Aayog report of 2024, India's household demand for wheat will be 86 million tonnes in 2030-31, and 96 million tonnes in 2047-48.
What role do global markets play here?
Amid the West Asia war, high global prices and supply disruptions from key exporting regions have created an opportunity for India's wheat farmers.
When global prices are favourable, exports become viable without subsidies, improving domestica price realizations. UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data of 3 April showed the global food price index averaged 128.5 points in March, up 3 points (2.4%) from its revised February level, marking the second consecutive monthly rise.
What does this mean for policy, going ahead?
This shows India's shift from passive stockpiling to active market management. “The strategy signals a shift towards more active stock management. Instead of holding excess grain and risking price crashes, the government is using exports to stabilize markets,” said Rakesh Arrawatia, professor at the Institute of Rural Management Anand (Irma) in Gujarat, and dean at the School of Cooperative Banking and Finance.
India’s traditional wheat export markets include Bangladesh, the largest buyer, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates. During global supply disruptions such as the Ukraine war, Indian wheat exports had briefly expanded to Egypt and Turkey just before the ban.