Aletheia Capital's Chief Economist Jim Walker highlighted in a research report released on Monday, March 24, that he would be amazed if the US economy could avoid the upcoming potential recession.
“In the US itself, we will be amazed if recession can be avoided, especially if efforts to cap fiscal expenditure are successful,” he said in the report.
In the report titled “Peregrinations Walking All Over The World”, Jim Walker and Wayne Choi highlighted that the inflation signals in the US are not good, which may prompt a situation of stagflation in the US economy.
Stagflation is a slowing growth curve fuelled by higher unemployment and rising prices in a country. US inflation data eased to 2.8 per cent in February 2025, compared to its January 3 per cent levels.
“That said, inflation signals are not good so perhaps the right call is for stagflation. Predicting interest rate moves in this environment is like spinning a roulette wheel – a game of pure chance,” according to the Aletheia Capital report.
The chief economist also highlighted that real gross fixed capital formation spending terms have been the main driving factor for the recoveries of major economies such as the United States, India and Singapore.
On the topic of President Donald Trump's tariffs, the economist expects that their effect will not be limited to the export sectors but also the domestic investment of the nation.
Jim Walker was among those who predicted the 2008 financial crisis in the US economy and is recently back in action after acknowledging in a commentary that he would be amazed if the US avoided the potential recession.
Walker has worked for more than six years for Aletheia Capital, an independent advisory firm based in Hong Kong. Earlier, Walker was a Senior Economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland before venturing into the private sector.
Jim Walker holds a PhD in economics from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland.
In a recent interview with the news portal ET Now, Jim Walker flagged the potential for the US economy to experience a 2008-like situation, which led to an economic crash.
“It will be a pretty painful slowdown, but we can go to the other end of it without the kind of government and central bank action that took place in 2008, 2009,” Walker was quoted as saying in the report.
