The World Bank raised its forecast for growth this year, saying the global economy has proved surprisingly shock-proof in the face of an “historic” escalation in trade tensions.
Real gross domestic product is now projected to rise by 2.6% in 2026, up from a June forecast of 2.4%, the Washington-based lender said in a report Tuesday. The US economy saw a sizable boost to an estimated 2.2% gain this year, compared with just 1.6% previously.
The new 2026 global forecasts mark a modest slowdown from stronger growth in 2025 than the lender had anticipated. A burst in trade as companies and households rushed to get goods in anticipation of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, combined with a smaller impact from the high import levies and a push in intelligence spending helped bolster world growth to an estimated 2.7% last year, the World Bank said in its report.
“Global growth is becoming range-bound. There is resilience, but growth is not accelerating,” said Ayhan Kose, the lender’s deputy chief economist, noting that real GDP growth has stayed between 2.6% and 2.8% since 2023, compared with an average of 3.2% in the decade before the pandemic.
The lender is following the International Monetary Fund in marking up its estimates for 2025. The IMF boosted its own projections for last year in October, while warning about strains ahead. It is scheduled to provide fresh forecasts on Monday.
In its report, the World Bank said the world economy’s resilience has been “notable,” but risks remain tilted to the downside. “There is a significant risk that trade tensions could re-escalate, especially as higher tariffs could redirect exports to third countries, leading domestic producers in those countries to seek protection from increased import competition,” the institution said.
The World Bank’s report also showed:
