Anti-incumbency or SIR anger? What West Bengal’s record Phase 1 voter turnout means for TMC, BJP

West Bengal registered a record 92% voter turnout in the first phase of the assembly polls held on 23 April. Voting was held in 152 seats spread across 16 districts of West Bengal amid unprecedented security to decide the electoral fate of 1,478 candidates, including 167 women.

Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Gyanesh Kumar, said the turnout was the state's highest-ever percentage since Independence. "This is the highest-ever percentage in West Bengal since Independence," Kumar said on Thursday evening.

The election for the remaining seats in the 294-member Bengal assembly will be held on 29 April. The results will be announced on 4 May.

The contest in West Bengal is considered largely bipolar. The ruling Trinamool Congress faces a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

History of high voter turnout

West Bengal has a history of recording high voter turnout in assembly polls.

In the 2021 Assembly election, held amid the COVID-19 pandemic and a polarised battle between the ruling TMC and the BJP, turnout was recorded at over 84%. This turnout was the highest before Thursday’s polling in Bengal. The TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, retained power with 213 seats in the 294-member Assembly in 2021.

What does this record turnout mean for the BJP and the TMC? In 2021, the TMC won 92 of the 152 seats contested on Thursday. The BJP won 59.

What does it mean for BJP?

As indications of high turnout began to emerge, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday congratulated the people of West Bengal and said the figures were indicative of an "overwhelming mandate for change".

Addressing poll rallies in Krishnanagar in Nadia district on a day when voters across 152 constituencies of the state queued up to exercise their franchise in the aftermath of the over 91 lakh Special Intensive Revision (SIR) deletions, Modi also congratulated the Election Commission for keeping "violence during the assembly polls in the state at a minimum".

"This is the first time in the last 50 years of poll history in West Bengal that incidents of violence were kept at a minimum. The information I have received so far about the record-breaking turnout makes me certain that this is going to be an overwhelming mandate in favour of a change which West Bengal's voters have already decided to bring about," the PM said.

Most voting was recorded in South Dinajpur (95.36%) and Cooch Behar (95.5%) till 7 PM, according to reports.

‘Landslide for TMC’?

Like the BJP, the TMC also claimed victory after a record turnout.

West Bengal Education Minister and senior TMC leader Bratya Basu said that the ruling party was marching to a landslide victory, and the first phase of polls had set the verdict in stone.

“For withholding Bengal's rightful funds. For insulting Bengal's people by calling them "Bangladeshis" and "Rohingyas." For threatening our language, our culture, our food habits and our long-held customs. The people have answered,” he said.

Anti-incumbency or uncertainty due to SIR?

High voter turnout is usually associated with anti-incumbency sentiment. When the TMC defeated the Left Front and came to power in 2011, West Bengal saw a turnout of 84.33%. However, there have been instances when high turnouts favoured the incumbents.

Another important reason cited by experts is SIR. High voter turnout linked to SIR has a precedent. After the SIR in Bihar, voter turnout increased significantly in the 2025 Assembly polls. Bihar recorded a 67.13% turnout in 2025, up from 57.29% in 2020 and 56.91% in 2015.

“In Bihar, after SIR, voter turnout surged, and it worked in favour of the incumbent government. The same trend has now repeated itself in Bengal. In addition, a record number of women have participated in this festival of democracy, making their voices heard where it matters most,” Basu said.

Several districts, including Murshidabad, North 24 Parganas, Malda, Nadia and South 24 Parganas, that voted Thursday recorded some of the highest deletions.

The return of migrant workers is also seen as a reason. Voters residing outside West Bengal for work travelled back to the state because they feared being dropped from the voter list and even losing their citizenship.

Some people who were present in areas that voted on Thursday said the unprecedented presence of paramilitary forces boosted the confidence of voters in Bengal, which has a history of post-poll violence. Over 2,000 Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel were deployed in the first phase of Bengal on Thursday.

What do analysts say?

Experts said that the higher participation appears to be driven partly by an emotional factor linked to SIR-related deletions.

“Many voters faced uncertainty and anxiety over whether their names would be added to or removed from the rolls. There is also a fear factor among some voters that if they do not vote this time, their names may be deleted in the future,” said Sayantan Ghosh, author of Battleground Bengal, published by Penguin just ahead of West Bengal polls.

Election Commission's SIR of electoral rolls has been a major poll issue this time in Bengal. The controversial exercise saw nearly 91 lakh names deleted from the state's electoral rolls.

People are speculating about an unprecedented 92% voter turnout. This figure would have been 83% if 7 million had not been deleted," former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi said.

The reasons for high voter turnout can be many, but what it won't reveal is who will benefit from it – the TMC or the BJP. That will be clear on 4 May when the results are announced.

(With agency inputs)