Assembly Elections 2023: Opinion poll suggests BJP, Congress to battle tough semi-finals in 5 states. Check data here

The Election Commission of India has announced the schedule for Assembly Elections 2023 in all five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram — which is slated to take place between November 7 and 30. The counting of votes will be done on December 3 for all five poll-bound states in India. 

These assembly elections will be a semi-political clash between the Bharatiya Janata Party and opposition parties who have formed an alliance called the ‘INDIA bloc’ for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Two main rivals, BJP and Congress, are all set for direct face-offs in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan because the saffron party is still struggling for its supremacy in Telangana and Mizoram. 

ABP News and CVoter spoke to voters in all five poll-bound states about their choices for the upcoming assembly elections. Take a look at the detailed opinion poll data for each state below, 

1) Madhya Pradesh

According to the ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll data, the ruling BJP and Congress are expected to undergo a neck-and-neck political battle as the saffron party is only 0.1% ahead of the grand old party in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh. Congress has a 44.6% vote share, while the BJP has a 44.7% vote share in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led state. On the other hand, BSP has got only 2.1% votes, and other parties along with independent candidates secured an 8.6% share in the opinion poll. The survey data showed that Congress can get 113 to 125 seats out of 230 constituencies, while BJP is likely to win 104 to 116 seats. 

2) Rajasthan

In Rajasthan Elections 2023, the survey revealed that the BJP is slated to win around 127 to 137 constituencies in the 200-member Assembly, while the Congress is likely to bag between 59 to 69 seats with a vote share of 42%. It is pertinent to note that the majority mark for a political party to form the government in Rajasthan is 101. The opinion poll indicates a clear victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party. 

3) Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections will take place in two phases, that is, November 7 and 17. The counting of votes will be held on December 3. The ABP-CVoter opinion poll showed that the Congress and BJP will witness a tough political battle in poll-bound Chhattisgarh. It is expected that the BJP can win around 39 to 45 seats out of 90 constituencies, while the Congress can secure 45 to 51 seats. Other parties are likely to bag only 0 to 2 seats. As per the survey, the ruling Congress can get over 45% of votes in Chhattisgarh, followed by the BJP with a 43% vote share. 

4) Telangana

The opinion poll data indicates that the BJP will fail to create its notable existence in Telangana where elections are due later this year. BJP is projected to win only 5 to 11 seats out of 119 constituencies, despite PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah leading its campaign for the saffron party. It is expected to be a tough political contest between BRS and Congress, who can secure 43 to 55 seats and 48 to 60 seats respectively. The ABP-CVoter survey revealed that the Congress can gain nearly 39% vote share, followed by BRS at 37% and BJP at 16%. 

5) Mizoram

The ABP-CVoter opinion poll data showed that Mizoram is expected to witness a hung assembly as no political party secured the complete majority to win the state assembly elections in the northeast region. Out of a total 40 seats, Congress is likely to bag 10 to 14 seats, while MNF can secure 13 to 17 constituencies, followed by ZPM with 9 to 13 assemblies, and others 1 to 3 in Mizoram.