BJP's surge, JD(U)'s comeback: How NDA secured a landslide victory in Bihar—in charts

Bihar has reaffirmed its faith in its longest-serving chief minister, Nitish Kumar, by giving the Janata Dal (United) a huge leg-up in this year's election. Along with another strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—the single largest party—the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has scripted as big a success as in the 2010 polls, when it had won 206 seats

With this, 74-year-old Kumar is well on his way to serving another term in Bihar after having been the state's chief minister for nearly two decades.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won 202 out of 243 Assembly seats in Bihar, well past the majority mark of 122 seats, final data showed. The JD(U) won 85 seats—nearly doubling the tally from 43 it had won in the 2020 elections. The BJP has won the largest number of seats (89), also higher than the 74 seats won in the last poll.

The two parties had contested 101 seats each in the assembly election held in Bihar earlier this month. The alliance also comprises the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), among others.

A Mint analysis of election data shows that the victory margin was not huge. BJP and JD(U) have won only two seats each with more than 30% vote margin. However, both parties won the largest number of seats—70 seats by the BJP and 66 seats by the JD(U)—by a 5-30% margin, which shows a strong performance.

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, CPI-ML, CPI, CPI(M) and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)—received a huge setback, winning just 35 seats. The RJD won 25 seats, and Congress only six. The election has proved to be a major upset for the RJD, which had emerged as the single-largest party in the 2020 poll, with 75 seats—more than both those of the BJP and JD(U).

The drubbing is despite the RJD cornering the largest vote share (23%), higher than the BJP's 20.1% and the JDU's 19.3%, suggesting that other parties may have played the spoilsport.

Despite a high-octane campaign, the political strategist Prashat Kishore's Jan Suraaj Party failed to win even a single seat. However, it seemed to have played a key role in cutting votes. A Mint analysis of election results showed that there were 22 seats where the party's candidates secured the third rank and garnered more votes than the victory margin. Independents had 19 such seats. In total, there were 56 seats where parties, which were not a part of the two main alliances, secured the third rank by garnering more votes than the victory margin.

A detailed constituency-wise analysis of the trends shows that the BJP has gained 25 new seats, while retaining 64 seats from before. JD(U) has gained 47 new seats and retained 38 seats.

While JD(U) has significantly improved its performance, it is the BJP that proved to be the more popular party in the alliance again in this election. Bihar is the only Hindi-speaking state where the BJP has never won a majority on its own. The back-to-back strong performance could potentially change the dynamics in the NDA alliance, even though Kumar has been chosen for the chief minister’s position. While the BJP's performance remains crucial to Bihar's performance, JD(U) is a key ally in the central government. The BJP secured just 240 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, falling short of the 272 needed to form the government. JD(U)'s 12 seats, along with the Telugu Desam Party's 16 seats, are crucial for the alliance in the central government.

Among key candidates, the Yadav brothers (sons of Lalu Prasad Yadav) witnessed opposite results. Tejashwi Yadav, who contested from RJD, is leading in Raghopur, albeit by a margin of only 14,532 votes. On the other hand, Tej Pratap Yadav, who formed his own party, Janshakti Janata Dal, after a family dispute, lost in Mahua, receiving just 35,703 votes.

Folk singer and BJP candidate Maithili Thakur, who contested her first election, has won in the Alinagar seat with a margin of about 12,000 votes over veteran RJD politician Binod Mishra. Thakur, at 25 years, has become the youngest MLA in the state. The incumbent deputy chief minister, Samrat Choudhary of the BJP, has won from Tarapur by a margin of 45,843 votes over the RJD's Arun Kumar.

The four candidates who recorded about 30% or more victory margin are BJP's Nitin Nabin from Bankipur and Sanjiv Chaurasia from Digha, and JD(U)'s Kalandhar Prasad Mandal from Rupauli and Shailesh Kumar Mandal from Gopalpur.