2 min read.Updated: 07 Nov 2020, 05:36 PM IST Written By Staff Writer
The fight in Bihar is between two main stakeholders — National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Grand Alliance (GA)
A total of 243 constituencies, three phases amid a global pandemic, millions of voters — the battle for Bihar has reached its final stage on Saturday. All eyes are set on 10 November when the results of the Bihar Assembly elections 2020 will be declared. Before that, there will be numerous exit polls predicting the fate of candidates who took part in the fray. Exit polls will come shortly after the third phase of the Bihar Assembly elections 2020 concludes. The fight in Bihar is between two main stakeholders — National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Grand Alliance (GA).
The NDA comprises the Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani.
The constituents in the ‘grand alliance' are Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) or CPI(ML).
Here's a primer on what exit polls are and how they work.
What are exit polls and how are they conducted?
Exit poll is a post-voting poll, which is conducted just after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote. Such polls aim at predicting the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters. They are conducted by a number of organisations. The basic step to predict exit polls is sampling.
Why are they not allowed to be telecast before voting?
Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, puts a ban on exit polls from the period between the commencements of the poll until half an hour after the closing of the final phase of the poll.
The embargo on exit polls will lift on Saturday evening at 6.30 pm after the last phase of the Bihar Assembly elections 2020 concludes.
Do they always get it right?
In the past, there had been instances when exit polls had predicted the verdict of an election incorrectly. In 2004, the exit polls wrongly predicted the BJP-led NDA coalition winning again.
What is the difference between an exit poll and an opinion poll?
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a kind of voter behaviour survey conducted to gauge the public opinion before voting takes place, while an exit poll happens right after voting. Through a scientific survey, the views of a particular group of people are ascertained.
Bihar Assembly elections Exit polls in 2015: In 2015, the Bihar Assembly elections 2020 was between BJP-led NDA minus JD(U). JD(U) was part of Mahagathbandhan, which also included the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress. Most exit polls predicted that NDA would get somewhere between 100 and 127 seats, a little higher than Mahagathbandhan, but it didn’t indicate any majority. In the final results, however, Mahagathbandhan won with comfortable majority.