Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Nitish Kumar or Tejashwi Yadav? What Exit Polls predicted

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: As counting begins in a few hours today following a historic voter turnout, most exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leaving the Mahagathbandhan — or INDIA bloc, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress — trailing.

As per Axis My India, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD emerged as the preferred chief minister in Bihar's exit polls, capturing 34% support against Nitish Kumar's 22%. This, despite the NDA projected to win the elections.

What did pollsters predict?

Here's a glimpse at what each of the pollsters, including Axis My India and Today's Chanakya, predicted for the ruling NDA, other contesting alliances, and parties:

The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar assembly is 122.

How do exit polls work?

Exit polls are conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations.

Researchers from various agencies or media organisations ask voters who they chose, compiling data across a representative sample of constituencies. This information is then analysed to predict possible results before the official counting begins

Which pollster broke the trend?

Amid all the predictions favouring a sweeping win for the NDA, one pollster, however, stood out among the surveys released on Tuesday. A survey by local news portal Journo Mirror predicted that the Mahagathbandhan or the INDIA bloc, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party, would win the Bihar Assembly Elections.

Sharing the survey on its Instagram handle, Journo Mirror predicted that the Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc would win 130-140 seats.

How accurate were exit polls in 2015 and 2020?

Exit polls have historically been known to miss the mark. While the idea behind exit polls is to accurately reflect public sentiment before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has frequently been called into question.

The exit polls in 2020 incorrectly predicted a narrow victory for the Mahagathbandhan. In 2015, pollsters were incorrect in predicting the results against the then JD(U)-RJD combine, commonly referred to as the Grand Alliance.

How have leaders reacted to the exit polls?

Following the release of the exit poll estimates, BJP MP Dinesh Sharma welcomed the predictions and said that the “clean-up” of the RJD and the Congress from Bihar had begun.

Meanwhile, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav rejected exit poll predictions, asserting that he neither lives in false optimism nor in misunderstanding.