Bihar Election 2025: NDA vs INDIA — who is likely to win? New poll reveals ‘extremely close’ fight and a ‘paradox’

A new "Mood of Bihar" poll revealed an "extremely close contest" between the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc in the Bihar Election 2025.

The Vote Vibe survey showed that just 1.6% of respondents separated the top two alliances, indicating that “this election could swing either way”.

Bihar Election 20205: NDA vs INDIA — who is likely to win?

The survey's key findings revealed that the NDA — a coalition of the BJP, JD(U), HAM and other parties — leads with 41.3% vote share, though marginally.

While 41.3% of those polled said they are likely to vote for the NDA in the Bihar Assembly Election, as many as 39.7% of those surveyed said they may choose Tejashwi Yadav's Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc).

Around 9% preferred the new-entrant Jan Suraaj, formed by political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor; 2.5% said they are likely to vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and 1.7% chose Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM.

The latest survey projected that the NDA has a slight edge currently, "due to its scheme announcements and intact core vote bloc". The finalisation of candidates for the Bihar Election 2025 now holds the key, the survey stated.

NDA or INDIA: Which alliance do women, youth trust

The Vote Vibe poll further suggested that the NDA leads among women by 6% and the Mahagathbandhan leads among men by 2%.

The RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan also leads among the youth (aged 18-34), while the NDA leads among those aged 35 and above.

It also claimed that Mahagathbandhan leads amongst Muslim-Yadav and Scheduled Caste voters, while those from the Upper caste, NYOBC and EBC choose the NDA.

The survey claimed a "tough fight for the Dalit community votes (excluding Paswans)."

Who is Bihar's most preferred CM?

Like the C-Voter released last week, the Vote Vibe opinion poll also showed RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as the top choice among voters for the next Chief Minister of Bihar.

While 35% of those polled in the Vote Vibe survey preferred Tejashwi Yadav, 23.4% said they want Nitish Kumar to retain the CM post. With 13.8%, Prashant Kishor was the third most preferred choice for Bihar CM among the polled voters.

The 'paradox': the NDA govt faces anti-incumbency but leads in vote share.

According to the Vote Vibe survey, the NDA government led by CM Nitish Kumar is facing "strong anti-incumbency" (48.6%), and yet, the BJP-JDU-HAM alliance leads with 41.3% vote share.

Why this ‘paradox’?

An analysis of the survey pointed to three factors that could explain this "paradox". The three reasons were:

1. NDA's broader coalition is compensating for anti-incumbency against the Nitish government

2. Opposition vote is splitting between Mahagathbandhan, Jan Suraj, and others

3. Some voters who may dislike the government but still support the NDA due to caste/local factors

Bihar Election 2025 Dates

This year, the Bihar Election will be held in two phases. The voting in the first phase will be held on November 6, and in the second phase, it will be held on November 11. The Bihar Election Results 2025 will be declared on November 14.

Here's the full Bihar Election schedule: