Bihar Election 2025: Why verdict upholds Nitish Kumar as a formidable political brand

Bihar Election 2025: On 13 November, the day before the Bihar Assembly Election Results, a bold poster appeared outside the Janata Dal (United) office in Patna. Dedicated by former state minister Ranjit Sinha, the poster hailed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as a ‘Tiger who still has the power’ (Tiger Zinda hai). It described him as the “protector” of all communities, including those on the margins of society.

The poster, echoing the title of the 2017 Salman Khan blockbuster ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’, captured party workers’ desire to see Nitish Kumar take oath as Bihar Chief Minister for a record tenth time.

The 2025 Bihar assembly polls witnessed strong and constant criticism from the opposition Mahagathbandhan over the delay in declaring a Chief Ministerial candidate with certainty. Citing Union Minister Amit Shah's previous statements, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and opposition CM face Tejashwi Yadav had time and again claimed that Nitish Kumar will not be the CM if the NDA comes to power.

On Friday, the Janata Dal (United) won 85 seats, marking a significant comeback for Nitish Kumar's party in the Bihar polls. With candidates on 101 seats, the JD (U) has performed with a strike rate of approximately 85%.

In the last elections, the JD (U) won just 43 seats. It was then reported that Chirag Paswan's Party, LJP (Ram Vilas), damaged Janata Dal's prospects by splitting votes on seats where both JD (U) and LJP candidates were contesting. The LJP finished second in nine such constituencies, winning a vote share of 5.66%.

The JD(U)’s 2025 performance, is striking, given its steady electoral decline in recent years. The party had won just 43 seats in 2020, a sharp fall from the 71 seats it secured in 2015.

The numbers clearly show that Nitish Kumar, who has had his proverbial ‘nine lives’, has successfully managed to dodge anti-incumbency since 2005, when he became the Chief Minister for the first time. Kumar is all set to be sworn in as chief minister for the tenth time.

Speaking with people on the ground in Bihar before the elections, it was clear that issues such as migration, job opportunities, and inadequate civic and educational facilities are not at the forefront of people's minds. It is, as long-time Bihar watchers would attest, a matter of caste and community. However, there was one factor that transcended all these aspects, and it is the brand of Nitish Kumar.

Nitish Kumar became Bihar CM for the first time in 2000. The government collapsed within 8 days. His next stint began in 2005. Since then, there has been no stopping him until 2014, when he resigned after JD(U)’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections that year, only to be sworn in as CM again. The last time he took the oath as Chief Minister was in January 2024.

What is Nitish Kumar's strength?

Political analysts say Nitish Kumar’s strength rests on a carefully cultivated base of voters comprising the Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%), Mahadalits, and women.

These constituencies have, by and large, remained loyal to Nitish through various political upheavals, drawn by his relatively clean image and development-focused governance, according to political analyst Amitabh Tiwari.

“Be it the BJP in 2005 and 2019 or the RJD in 2015, whichever party Nitish Kumar has allied with has won elections in the past. He is undoubtedly the kingmaker of Bihar,” Tiwari said.

In the 2025 elections, Nitish sought re-election with the BJP on his side. Many raised questions about his health. Others were wary of his absence from PM Narendra Modi's roadshow in Patna on Sunday.

“The BJP cannot stand on its own feet in Bihar until it has a face. If the BJP is fighting for 100 seats, then it cannot win in Bihar on its own. You need 120 seats to win Bihar," Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor told Mint in an interview.

Both the Bharatiya Janata Party and JD-U contested 101 seats each in the 2025 elections. Even at a 100% strike rate, each party will still need allies to maintain power. As of now, it appears that Nitish and his party are emerging as the leading contenders in this election. And the proverbial ‘paltu ram’ seems all set to be the chief minister for the tenth time.

The Lalu Years of Bihar

The only other towering figure in Bihar’s politics over the past few decades has been Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose Rashtriya Janata Dal enjoyed steadfast backing from OBCs, Scheduled Castes, and Muslims. Lalu's charisma and grassroots appeal not only sustained the party but also significantly contributed to Tejashwi Yadav’s rise.

However, Lalu's decline in Bihar politics was the result of a mix of governance failures, corruption scandals, and social changes that reshaped the state’s political landscape in the last few decades.

During Lalu’s rule (1990–2005, including Rabri Devi’s tenure), Bihar became associated with the term ‘jungle raj’ — a description used by critics to characterise widespread crime, poor infrastructure, and a weak administration.

The fodder scam, the multi-crore embezzlement of government funds, severely damaged Lalu’s image as a leader of the poor. His conviction and disqualification from contesting elections (from 2013 onward) weakened the RJD’s leadership and credibility.

Consequently, the non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, feeling excluded from Lalu’s caste politics, gravitated toward Nitish Kumar’s EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) outreach and the JD(U)-BJP alliance.

“Nitish Kumar should be respected for whatever he is. I still see support for his Sushasan Babu tag. But is that enough this time? I am not sure,” political analyst Manisha Priyam told LiveMint.