Bihar Election Results Today: Is record voting turnout good news for NDA or MGB? What 3 past polls tell us

Bihar Election Results Today: The counting of votes for the Bihar Assembly Elections is being held today.

Bihar has recorded an overall voter turnout of 67.13 per cent, the Election Commission of India (ECI) said. This bumper voter turnout is a record in Bihar's electoral history since 1951, the poll panel said

The overall turnout has increased by more than 9 percentage points compared to the 2020 Assembly elections. In 2020, Bihar recorded 57.29 per cent turnout in assembly elections.

The counting of votes begins at 8 am today.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) sought re-election, banking on the two-decade-long rule of Nitish Kumar in the state and the 11-year rule of the PM Modi government at the Centre. The Mahagathbandhan sought votes on the basis of anti-incumbency, misgovernance, and job promises.

As many as eleven Exit Poll results released over the past two days predicted that the NDA is poised to return to power in Bihar. While most surveys projected a clear victory for the NDA, one exit poll suggests a closely contested race.

Numbers from previous assembly elections in Bihar, however, show that governments have changed in the state many times when voter turnout has increased.

Here are three examples:

The 1967 Elections

In the 1967 elections, for example, voter turnout increased from 44.5% in the 1962 elections to 51.5%, representing a 7 percentage point increase. No single party had won a majority of seats.

The incumbent Congress government fell. The non-Congress parties formed a coalition government. Mahamaya Prasad Sinha of the Jana Kranti Dal was appointed as the Chief Minister of Bihar.

The 1980 Elections

In the 1980 Bihar assembly election, voter turnout was 57.3 per cent, up from 50.5 per cent recorded in the previous elections held in 1977.

The Congress again emerged as the largest party, and Jagannath Mishra was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Mishra remained the CM for about three years. He was followed by Chandrashekhar Singh. Elections held after President’s Rule ended Janata Party’s rule in Bihar.

The 1990 Elections Bumper Turnouts

The 1990 assembly elections of Bihar recorded 62 per cent turnout – one of the highest ever. Analysts had linked the turnout to mass mobilisation of backward castes and Muslims.

Voter turnout increased from 56.3% in 1985, marking a 5.7 percentage point rise.

The election marked the end of the Congress era and the beginning of the Lalu Prasad Yadav era. Lalu was then the Janata Dal leader who rode on the pan-India victory of Janata Dal in 1989, during VP Singh's wave.

The Post-2005 Phenomenon: The Nitish Era

After 2005, turnout increases began to correlate with NDA’s welfare base, especially among women beneficiaries (cycles, cash transfer, housing schemes).

Analysts said Bihar has become a gender-polarised voting state — men are split between alliances, while women lean towards the NDA.

High Turnout ≠ Anti-Incumbency

Typically, a high voter turnout is seen as a sign of public eagerness for change — in Bihar’s case, that could mean the end of Nitish Kumar’s two-decade rule. But political analysts caution against reading too much into it. The record turnout, they say, must be understood in the context of gender-based voting trends.

Unlike states such as UP or Rajasthan, high participation often reflects competitive enthusiasm, not a protest vote in Bihar. In 2010 and 2020, for example, both saw NDA returning to power amid high turnout.

“If women have voted more than men, it will be an advantage NDA,” Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst, told Mint.

Tiwari refers to previous elections in which the NDA had performed better in seats where women outvoted men. “ In 2020, for example, there were 43 seats in Bihar where women outvoted men. The JD(U) won 37 of these 43 seats. In 2015, NDA won 61 of 71 seats where women outnumbered men. Similarly, in 2010, of the 115 seats where women voters outvoted men, the NDA bagged 79 seats roughly,” Tiwari explained.

And if men have voted more than women, it would mean an advantage to the Mahagathbandhan, according to Tiwari. “The NDA could have won only 26 seats of 76 where men outvoted women in 2020,” he said.