Bihar Elections 2025: An advantage for NDA or a boost for INDIA bloc – What does record Phase 1 voter turnout mean?

Bihar Elections 2025: Bihar recorded what the Election Commission called a record voter turnout in its history during the first phase of the assembly elections held on Thursday, 6 November.

At least 65 per cent of the 3.75 crore electors voted across 121 assembly constituencies during the polling on Thursday. The first phase of polling marked the beginning of a closely watched, high-stakes contest that is seen as a litmus test of the ruling National Democratic Alliance's popularity under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

The poll panel said in a statement that the assembly elections concluded peacefully "in a festive mood with the highest ever voter turnout of 64.66 per cent in the history of Bihar".

The second phase for 122 seats will be held on 11 November. The results of the Bihar elections will be announced on 14 November.

The main contest in Bihar is between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan alliance. The ruling NDA comprises of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United), among other parties. The Mahagathbandhan, or the Grand Alliance, comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress as its main parties.

What did political parties say?

Political parties were quick to react to the high voter turnout. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj claimed it as a sign of their impending victory.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, the INDIA bloc's chief ministerial candidate, said, “I salute the people of Bihar for the bumper voting. I can now confidently say you have affirmed the victory of 'Mahagathbandhan'.”

Senior BJP leader and Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary told during a press conference, “We are going to win about 100 of the seats which went to polls today. The overall tally for the NDA will surpass the 2010 record of 206 seats”.

Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor claimed the highest voter turnout was a sign of the people's yearning for a change. “This is highest ever voter turn out in Bihar since independence. It indicates two things – one is like we said before. More than 60 per cent of Bihar wants change,” Kishor told journalists in Gaya.

“The other factor was that migrant labourers who had come for Chhath Puja stayed back and voted. They also made their friends and families vote. Women are key, but migrants are the X factor in this election. Its a message for those who said ₹10000 for women can win their elections,” Kishor said.

Congress party's Pawan Khera said the high voter turnout suggests that "we are going to get a clear majority".

The ruling NDA is seeking re-election, banking on the 20-year rule of Nitish Kumar in the state and the 11-year rule of the PM Modi government at the Centre. The opposition Mahagathbandhan is seeking votes on anti-incumbency, misgovernance and job promises.

What does the high voter turnout mean?

Typically, a high voter turnout is seen as a sign of public eagerness for change — in Bihar’s case, that could mean the end of Nitish Kumar’s two-decade rule. But political analysts caution against reading too much into it. The record turnout, they say, must be understood in the context of gender-based voting trends.

“If women have voted more than men, it will be an advantage NDA,” Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst, told Mint.

Tiwari refers to previous elections in which the NDA had performed better in seats where women outvoted men. “ In 2020, for example, there were 43 seats in Bihar where women outvoted men. The JD(U) won 37 of these 43 seats. In 2015, NDA won 61 of 71 seats where women outnumbered men. Similarly, in 2010, of the 115 seats where women voters outvoted men, the NDA bagged 79 seats roughly,” Tiwari explained.

And if men have voted more than women, it would mean an advantage to the Mahagathbandhan, according to Tiwari. “The NDA could have won only 26 seats of 76 where men outvoted women in 2020,” he says.

Did SIR impact voter turnout?

The polls for the 243-member assembly are being closely watched not only for their local implications but also as an early indicator of the political mood ahead of 2029, and follow the highly controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls by the EC, which came under attack from opposition parties for alleged "rigging" and "manipulation" of voter lists.

The record voter turnout assumes significance since the number of voters in Bihar saw a significant decline following the SIR exercise conducted by the poll panel in the run-up to the assembly polls.

On 30 September, the Election Commission of India published the final electoral roll of poll-bound Bihar. The state has about 7.42 crore voters as per the final list. There were 7.24 crore electors in the draft rolls published in August. This was after deleting 65 lakh voters from the voter list, which comprised 7.89 crore electors as on 24 June 2025.

In addition to the 65 lakh names removed at the time of publishing the draft roll in August, another 3.66 lakh ‘ineligible’ voters have been removed, while 21.53 lakh new voters have been added, taking the final voters in Bihar to 7.4 crore. This means about 47 lakh voters were deleted from the 24 June list.

The voter turnout on Thursday clearly means SIR has not led to a decline in the number of voters showing up at the polling booths.

In 2020 polls, held under the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, a voter turnout of 57.29 per cent was recorded in Bihar. In 2015, it was 56.91 per cent, and 52.73 in 2010.

(With PTI inputs)