Bihar Exit Polls 2025: What numbers say about Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor and others

Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Most exit polls released after recently-concluded Bihar elections have predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will retain power in the state, defeating the Mahagathbandhan — an alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress — in the two-phase contest.

The ruling NDA is projected to win with 121–141 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan, also known as the INDIA bloc, is expected to trail closely, securing 98–118 seats, according to Axis My India's latest exit poll findings released on November 12.

Today's Chanakya has also predicted a landslide victory for NDA with around 160 seats. These two pollsters released numbers a day after most others predicted NDA win hours after the second and last phase of voting for the Bihar elections was held on Tuesday, 11 November.

Remember, the exit polls have often got the predictions wrong, and the actual results of the Bihar elections will be declared by the Election Commission of India on Friday, 14 November. The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar assembly stands at 122.

What are the key findings?

-Most pollsters have predicted a victory of the NDA, which means the ruling alliance is returning to power, defying the anti-incumbency of over two decades.

-Region-wise, the NDA is doing well across Bihar, except Seemanchal, which is a Muslim dominated region of Bihar.

-Women voters prefer the NDA led by Nitish Kumar, while the young, unemployed have rallied behind the Mahagathbandhan.

-Despite the NDA winning the polls, opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the preferred choice as Chief Minister among voters in several polls. For example, Axis My India reports 34% of respondents favouring him, versus 22% for Nitish Kumar.

-The vote-share predictions show a narrow gap in some polls. The NDA may win around 43 per cent of the votes, while the Mahagathbandhan is forecasted to receive around 41 per cent, according to Axis My India’s prediction. This could mean a closely contested scenario despite NDA’s projected seat advantage.

What do Bihar Exit Polls say about Nitish Kumar?

-Going by the surveys, Nitish Kumar is arguably the biggest political brand of Bihar. This, despite having been in power for twenty years and suffering from ailing health.

-Nitish Kumar enjoys popularity among women voters for his women-centric cash and welfare schemes.

-Nitish Kumar appears to retain his strong base through his alliance in the NDA and enjoys projected victory in several regions (e.g., Champaran, Kosi, Bhojpur).

-The fact that Tejashwi leads in the CM preference category may undermine Nitish’s individual standing, especially if the NDA depends heavily on its partners rather than Nitish’s personal appeal.

-There has been speculation that even if the NDA wins, the internal dynamics of the alliance and leadership question. The BJP may want its own chief minister. Remember, Bihar is among the few states in India where the BJP hasn’t had its chief minister so far.

What do Exit Polls 2025 say about Tejashwi Yadav?

- Tejashwi Yadav is emerging as a powerful leader of Bihar who is kind of falling short of making it to the top. According to some exit poll results, the RJD is predicted to be the single largest party, a feat that Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party also achieved in the 2020 elections. The RJD contested the highest number of seats, 143, among all parties in the 2025 elections.

-Tejashwi Yadav has failed to counter the ‘jungle raj’ charge that is often associated with RJD rule in Bihar under the chief ministership of his parents, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi.

-Tejashwi Yadav’s strength, however, lies in being the preferred CM face of the opposition in voter sentiment — despite his alliance being behind in overall seat projections.

-The RJD leader’s popularity suggests that while his alliance (MGB) might not immediately secure victory, Yadav’s leadership brand is stronger than the raw numbers suggest. This may afford him more leverage going forward.

-The exit polls also create a narrative opportunity for him to claim momentum, even if his alliance falls short.

What do the numbers say about Modi, the NDA?

-Brand Modi still resonates. PM Narendra Modi campaigned in Bihar and helped Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United, a party which was otherwise reduced to under 50 seats in the 2020 polls.

-Another victory in NDA’s kitty would certainly consolidate the ruling alliance at the Centre, more so in the Hindi belt. Winning in Bihar would mean the NDA would have governments in nine states and UTs in north India. The Opposition is in power in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Jharkhand in the north.

Sooner or later, the BJP might have its own CM in Bihar. For about 14 years, the BJP has had a deputy chief minister in Bihar, with the Late Sushil Modi being the most prominent one. The party had two deputy chief ministers in the outgoing government under Nitish Kumar, the Janata Dal United supremo.

What about Rahul Gandhi and the INDIA bloc?

-Loss in Bihar would be another setback for the Opposition INDIA bloc, more so for the Congress party, which contested 61 seats. The Congress, which would be in power in Bihar in the 1990s before the rise of the RJD and the JD(U), had only one chief minister in the north – Himachal Pradesh.

-A defeat in Bihar would also mean a setback for Rahul Gandhi. Since 2024, the Congress has faced defeats in seven of the nine elections. The INDIA bloc won only two polls: Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand. The Congress was a junior ally in these elections

-Rahul Gandhi campaigned in Bihar with 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' months before the elections and raised issues around the alleged discrepancy in the electoral rolls. The issue clearly didn’t resonate with voters in Bihar.

-Exit polls do not credit him personally with significantly shifting the poll predictions in favour of the opposition alliance- the Mahagathbandhan.

And what about Prashant Kishor?

-Prashant Kishor’s new political venture, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), was seen by many as the ‘king maker’ in the Bihar contest. But according to multiple exit polls, it is forecast to win very few seats (often 0-5).

-The polls suggest his impact has been muted despite grassroots campaigning and attention; the electorate has largely stuck with the traditional alliances (NDA and Mahagathbandhan) rather than switch to his new formation.

-Kishor’s decision not to contest personally and his framing of the election as a larger “model change” may have limited his visibility in leadership-preference polls.